January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

Winter Weather Discussion

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donsutherland1
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January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

#1 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:08 pm

January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

Last week’s discussion raised a number of issues of what one might expect for the January 23-February 5, 2005 period.

Snow accumulations will increase dramatically in this area [DCA to BOS] from the January 22-23 storm. One or two additional snowfalls could occur before the end of this period. In the wake of the possible weekend blizzard, very cold air could be drilled into the region for a day. During the middle of the coming week (late Wednesday or Thursday), another such air mass could arrive. However, neither air mass seems as cold as the ones that brought readings to the single digits in NYC and Boston.

The following accumulations were recorded:
Boston: 22.5”
New York City: 13.8”
Philadelphia: 12.6”
Washington, DC: 3.0”

In the wake of the blizzard, lowest temperatures fell to the following levels:
Boston: 3°, January 24
New York City: 8°, January 24
Philadelphia: 3°, January 24
Washington, DC: 12°, January 24

In the East, look for readings next week to become somewhat milder than they were this week (January 16-22). However, a decent cold shot could arrive late in the week (probably around the 1/27-28 period).

Overall, both weeks proved similar in terms of cold.

Boston: 1/16-22: 15.6°; 1/23-28: 15.8°
New York City: 1/16-22: 19.7°; 1/23-28: 19.0°
Philadelphia: 1/16-22: 20.4°; 1/23-28: 19.1°
Washington, DC: 1/16-22: 24.6°; 1/23-28: 25.7°

A very cold air mass arrived late on the 26th. New York City saw its coldest temperature of the season. The lowest temperatures during the February 27-28 period were:

Boston: 2°, 1/28
New York City: 5°, 1/28
Philadelphia: 6°, 1/28
Washington, DC: 12°, 1/28

I believe that the remainder of January should see 1 or 2 additional snowfall opportunities (late 1/25 into 1/26 ahead of the return of unseasonably cold air and perhaps in the 1/29-31 period on a more active Southern Jet.

A clipper system preceded the passage of an Arctic cold front on January 26 and snow fell generally from Philadelphia northward. Accumulations were recorded in parts of New Jersey, New York, and New England. This snowfall allowed Boston to set a new all-time monthly record for snowfall.

January 29 could see some snow and ice across parts of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic. The best chances for some snow appear to be across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. Significant icing could occur across northern Georgia (including Atlanta), South Carolina, and North Carolina.

The first week of February will likely see readings not far from normal but there might be additional storminess as the pattern relaxes to reload for more cold and snow later in the month per analogs.

This idea looks very solid given model support.

The Central Plains will likely remain in a mild and even warm regime… Monday and Tuesday could be unseasonably mild with readings in the 40s at Bismarck, and perhaps well into the 50s or near 60° in Omaha and Kansas City.

The height of the warmth was not as great as I expected though readings did soar well into the 40s at Bismarck and into the 50s at Omaha and Kansas City. Highest readings for each of those three cities were:

Bismarck: 45°, 1/23; 46°, 1/24; 46°, 1/25
Kansas City: 51°, 1/24; 55°, 1/25
Omaha: 48°, 1/24; 53°, 1/25

Water-logged California should enjoy relatively benign weather for the most part through at least January 25.

The January 16-25 period saw a trace of rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles.

For those who want to learn more about the January 7-11 heavy rainfall event: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cnrfc/jan2005storms.php

As the pattern becomes more progressive, precipitation will likely begin to return to the West Coast probably after January 25. However, I do not believe this wetter period will rival those from December and earlier in January. The wetter regime could last 1-2 weeks per analogs and ensembles.

January 26-27 saw 0.08” with 0.08” falling on January 26.

The Pacific Northwest should see readings cool down by around January 26. However, shortly after approximately February 3-5, moderation will be likely. Moreover, I do not believe that readings will approach lows achieved earlier this month. For the January 23-31 period, Seattle might see its coldest reading in the 27°-32°. A storm could bring a cold rain during the January 26-27 timeframe.

Seattle had seen temperatures running 9° to 16° above normal since January 18. A cooldown occurred on January 25th when the temperature averaged 3° above normal. No similar warmth has occurred since then. So far, the lowest temperature is 37° (1/25). At the same time, showers brought a total of 0.11” rainfall during the January 26-27 period.

The January 30-February 12 Ideas:

The analogged ideas worked out very well concerning the decisive pattern shift at mid-month and that the current cold pattern would likely last 2-3 weeks. Given the latest ENSO numbers (week of January 19), consistency remains the norm among the analogs though the first half of February looks somewhat less certain in terms of temperatures. Relative to normal, the first 10-14 days should probably come in reasonably close to normal with some below normal readings but also some somewhat above normal readings. No extreme cold nor blowtorches appear likely. The second half of February looks to average colder than normal. Indeed, for that period 7 of the top 10 analogs were cold and just 2 were warm. Interestingly enough, 3 of those cold analogs were suppressed and this points to increasing opportunities for snowfall accumulations in the lower Mid-Atlantic. Overall, things remain on course for February to prove colder than normal and snowier than normal in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.
On the flip side, it appears that both periods have a higher probability of seeing above normal readings in the West per analogs.

Recently, there has been some debate as to whether the Pacific SSTAs have changed significantly. A major clue should be forthcoming next week: the January PDO. A negative PDO generally supports a negative PNA. If the PDO has gone positive, a significant change in Pacific SSTAs has taken place. If not, less consequential changes have occurred. One thing is certain, the great Pacific SSTAs debate will soon be settled.

In addition, using the latest weekly ENSO data (week of January 19), of the 10 years most similar to January 2005, 9 saw the NAO average negative in January. In other words, 90% of the ENSO analogs suggested had a negative NAO in February. This will be something to look for and, given the overall analog picture in terms of temperature anomalies, it might be possible that the NAO tanks during the second half of February.

At the same time, if one examines the 500 mb height anomalies on a daily basis, very slow but steady retrogression of what had been a persistent central Atlantic ridge is underway. This suggests that the process that will lead to generally sustained periods of negative NAO is underway.

Given this information per visible retrogression and analogs, I am skeptical of the 1/29 12z run of the ECMWF that depicts a potentially strongly positive NAO in its 8-10 day average. One should bear in mind that the analogs were very good in highlighting the timing of the pattern shift around mid-January and that it would not be a transient affair when most of the modeling was having difficulty. I would not be surprised that this is again the case and that the modeling will begin to come around.

All in all, look for February to be colder than normal in the Eastern United States and warmer than normal in the West. The Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast should see above normal snowfall. New England should continue to see above normal snowfall given past experience following blockbuster January snowfall as outlined earlier this week. I do expect more accumulations in the Plains States and Ohio Valley, as well. Suppression is also a possibility at some time in February, as well.

• Per analogs and model guidance, look for generally seasonal temperatures to arrive in the February 1-3 period. This does not mean that it cannot snow, especially from Philadelphia northward through the first 10 days of February. However, one should not expect severe cold during this timeframe.

Overall, February 1-10 should average near normal. However, a cooling trend could be getting underway near or just after February 10. The February 3-7 period should probably see above normal readings with highs in the 40s in Boston and New York City. Through February 5, I don’t believe either city will see significant snowfall.

• The Central Plains will see temperatures running near or somewhat above normal through February 2. However, a cooling trend could occur afterward and such cities as Omaha could pick up accumulations of snow before next week is out. The highest risk of snow is probably in the February 3-5 period.

• The current cooler weather in the Pacific Northwest will likely last until around February 1. Afterward, as a new ridge begins to build, readings will be on the rise and Seattle could again see highs in the middle 50s by February 3.

• Across the Deep South, readings should remain generally below normal to near normal through February 3. Afterward, just as the milder air begins to approach its high tide in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, also look for warmer readings across the Deep South.

ENSO Analogs and Teleconnection Indices:

As of the week of January 19, temperatures in the ENSO regions were as follows:

R1+2: 25.0°C
R3: 26.0°C
R3.4: 27.1°C
R4: 29.2°C

Region 3.4 has been holding nearly steady and a weak El Niño should continue into February. In addition, Region 1+2 has seen its slight cool anomaly of -0.2°C (week of January 5) give way to a slight warm anomaly (+0.3°C). Consequently, I believe the ingredients are in place for there to be an active Southern Jet.

At last word, the Arctic Oscillation is strongly negative, the NAO is negative, and the PNA is positive. Through approximately February 7, the GFS ensembles suggest that the Arctic Oscillation should remain generally negative. The NAO will likely remain negative and possibly go strongly negative. The PNA is a tough call but it should be positive as February 7 approaches. Perhaps after February 10, should there be dual blocking and the AO be negative, much below normal temperatures could return to the East.

Should the NAO crash as is hinted at by the GFS ensembles, perhaps there will be at least some degree of suppressed systems. If so, the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast could have some winter fun.

Overall, the general pattern suggested by the ensembles and analogs is not a recipe for blowtorch warmth. Thus while there is moderation from this coming weekend through perhaps the first week in February, there should be no exceptional warmth. At the same time, there may well be opportunities for snowfall, particularly across New England. The Middle Atlantic states might also get into the game.

Certainly February continues to look snowier than normal in both regions. Taking the 15 years that had ENSO profiles most similar to that of January 2004, odds continue to point to a snowy February:

Averages:
• Boston: 16.4" (5/6 years when January saw > 30" also saw > 15" in February
• New York City: 8.7"
• Washington, DC: 5.0"

If one throws in the winter QBO, the snowfall totals are even more impressive:

• Boston: 19.4"
• New York City: 11.8"
• Washington, DC: 8.0"

Finally, if one considers the winter ENSO pattern (R1+2 averages < 25.25°C for the winter; R3.4 averages 27°C or above) in combination with the January regional data, the signal is again a snowy one:

• Boston: 21.4"
• New York City: 10.4"
• Washington, DC: 5.9"
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby sertorius » Fri Jan 28, 2005 10:25 pm

Don:

Excellleent discussion as always!! Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts-I can't imagine the amount of time you put in to make this-fantastic as always. I hope to see one more accumalating snow (got close 2 inches tonigh-hey, in this snow starved winter, I'll take it!!) I relly think the next two weeks could be interesting as the closed off low in the sw (as depicted on the 12z euro and gfs) ejects out short waves and then come out itself. Today's 0z 10 day euro really showed some changes as far as temps. and also showed some sw ejecting out at 500 level. Time will tell. Thanks again!!!!
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#3 Postby AnthonyC » Fri Jan 28, 2005 11:31 pm

Don,

What's the word for the Pacific Northwest? Latest models...including the EMCWF and GFS...indicate a pattern shift beginning next weekend...trough in the west, ridge in the east. What's your take on this? It does show much colder weather in the Pacific Northwest...comparatively speaking...we've been between 55-60 F for almost two weeks...it's ridiculous.

Anthony
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#4 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:14 pm

AnthonyC,

The ECMWF and GFS Ensembles are in reasonably good agreement concerning the passage of a trough through the Pacific Northwest (around the 4th). However, I believe the trough will be transient so by around the 8th, milder air will return.
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Re: January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

#5 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:40 pm

Just two quick notes...

• The ENSO data from the week of January 26 did not change the details concerning either the February NAO or February snow/temperature outlooks.

• The GFS ensembles continue to point to a mainly negative NAO through February 15. The AO is progged to be negative during the same time. The interplay between the current Ocean storm, southern system, and perhaps secondary should all work to help pump heights in Greenland and lead to the possible sharp drop in the NAO forecast for after February 7 by the GFS ensembles. The magnitude of this drop--if it occurs--could have important implications for the second week in February.

Right now, the general ideas concerning the outlook in the East still look good.
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Re: January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

#6 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:46 am

At this point in time, the idea of examining late-season tropical activity to gain a better idea as to the outcomes pertaining to the Ocean storm is looking fairly good. If anything, the possible impacts discussed in that thread are looking reasonable and, it is possible, that the impacts could be even less.

What this means is that the point that none of the major cities from Philadelphia to Boston would likely see a signficant snowfall through at least February 5 is poised to verify.

In the February 6-19 discussion (probably late Friday or early Saturday), I'll also take a quick look at the upcoming summer and hurricane season. There are some interesting developments showing up in the emerging analogs.
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:56 am

"All in all, look for February to be colder than normal in the Eastern United States and warmer than normal in the West."

Thanks Don ! That's what's important , along with above average precipitation..............


Active February Alert !!!!


In additon, we are ALREADY experiencing a chance for winter storm conditions in the southern Appalachians THURS, even before the expected eastern trough after the Feb.10 timeframe. This helps greatly, as we can expect an active start for February..... 8-)

Plus I really like this part

"Should the NAO crash as is hinted at by the GFS ensembles, perhaps there will be at least some degree of suppressed systems. If so, the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast could have some winter fun."

Certainly possible. Furthermore, since the coastal SE has NOT had a major winterstorm here for nearly 16 years (since Dec.1989) the chances of seeing such an event again are becoming increasingly likely, if one considers the laws of averages. A very strongly -NAO will increase blocking upstream, leading to greater chances of seeing a major or severe arctic outbreak in the eastern/central US after Feb.15. Should this collide with a SE coastal storm at the same time, we'd be talking snow !
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Feb 02, 2005 2:52 pm

Furthermore, since the coastal SE has NOT had a major winterstorm here for nearly 16 years (since Dec.1989) the chances of seeing such an event again are becoming increasingly likely, if one considers the laws of averages.


Am I reading this in the wrong context or am I just flat wrong? Didn't March of 1993 see and incredible winter storm from the deep SE all the way up the East Coast?
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 02, 2005 4:41 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 722#808722

David yes your are referring to this storm.The great storm of 1993.
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Re: January 30-February 12, 2005 Pattern Discussion

#10 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:19 pm

For now, just a quick note...

The QPF impacts were not significantly different from what was implied by the examination of tropical systems. However, the situation was a little more wintry than I expected with a larger share of the precipitation falling as snow than I had thought would be the case.

Even as moderation continues to overspread the East, there are growing indications of a return to winter and prospect of storms. Analogs, GFS ensembles, MJO phase, etc., all signal that one should not get too comfortable in the mild respite from winter.

BTW, the QBO went East (-0.45) in January. When coming up with the winter idea last fall, a key assumption was that the QBO would go negative in the January-February period. So, to preempt issues that might arise, I have no changes to my overall ideas. Of course, the very heavy snows in New England (both from highlighting snowier analogs from the mix and invoking historic experience following excessive snowfall in January) strongly indicate that my estimate there will prove to have been too low.

A more detailed discussion for the February 6-19 period will be posted this evening.
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#11 Postby Guest » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:44 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Furthermore, since the coastal SE has NOT had a major winterstorm here for nearly 16 years (since Dec.1989) the chances of seeing such an event again are becoming increasingly likely, if one considers the laws of averages.


Am I reading this in the wrong context or am I just flat wrong? Didn't March of 1993 see and incredible winter storm from the deep SE all the way up the East Coast?



The thing with that storm most of the snow that did fall was away from the coast along the eastern seaboard from about the MA coast south. Even where i had lived at along the Delaware coast didnt get much snow from that storm. 4 - 6 inches or so i believe was the finall tally there with less the further south you went into VA etc. Most of those who got pounded with the snow were from the piedmont west into the apps and sw of there to the coast of the central Gulfcoast.

So no the se coast which i believe what Don is referring to didnt see much of any snow from this great storm. Just areas inland a good ways from the coast got it.
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#12 Postby Anonymous » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:02 pm

KingOfWeather wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Furthermore, since the coastal SE has NOT had a major winterstorm here for nearly 16 years (since Dec.1989) the chances of seeing such an event again are becoming increasingly likely, if one considers the laws of averages.


Am I reading this in the wrong context or am I just flat wrong? Didn't March of 1993 see and incredible winter storm from the deep SE all the way up the East Coast?



The thing with that storm most of the snow that did fall was away from the coast along the eastern seaboard from about the MA coast south. Even where i had lived at along the Delaware coast didnt get much snow from that storm. 4 - 6 inches or so i believe was the finall tally there with less the further south you went into VA etc. Most of those who got pounded with the snow were from the piedmont west into the apps and sw of there to the coast of the central Gulfcoast.

So no the se coast which i believe what Don is referring to didnt see much of any snow from this great storm. Just areas inland a good ways from the coast got it.



Noo ! The coastal SE in Dec.1989 had 8 inches right along the coast of SC. Jacksonville had 1". I was referring to the Dec 1989 event which was a coastal storm offshore and dumped the greatest snow of the last century in the CHAS area, beating the old record of 7.3" in FEB 1973.

Ken
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#13 Postby Guest » Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:13 am

kenl wrote:
KingOfWeather wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Furthermore, since the coastal SE has NOT had a major winterstorm here for nearly 16 years (since Dec.1989) the chances of seeing such an event again are becoming increasingly likely, if one considers the laws of averages.


Am I reading this in the wrong context or am I just flat wrong? Didn't March of 1993 see and incredible winter storm from the deep SE all the way up the East Coast?



The thing with that storm most of the snow that did fall was away from the coast along the eastern seaboard from about the MA coast south. Even where i had lived at along the Delaware coast didnt get much snow from that storm. 4 - 6 inches or so i believe was the finall tally there with less the further south you went into VA etc. Most of those who got pounded with the snow were from the piedmont west into the apps and sw of there to the coast of the central Gulfcoast.

So no the se coast which i believe what Don is referring to didnt see much of any snow from this great storm. Just areas inland a good ways from the coast got it.



Noo ! The coastal SE in Dec.1989 had 8 inches right along the coast of SC. Jacksonville had 1". I was referring to the Dec 1989 event which was a coastal storm offshore and dumped the greatest snow of the last century in the CHAS area, beating the old record of 7.3" in FEB 1973.

Ken


I was talking about the March superstorm of 93. :wink:
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#14 Postby Mezocyclone » Mon Feb 07, 2005 3:36 am

I was 3 miles from Indian Rocks Beach when this storm developed and came through, Hurricane Force winds and sea foam was flying that far inland. Signs from local businesses were shattered and debree littered the streets here in Pinellas County. The community was up in arms over the lack of warning that the station here in Ruskin was sleeping at the wheel and didn't provide any warning as it developed so fast. To this day I have yet to hear of a reasonable explaination as to why we didn't see this coming..
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