Repeat after me: WINTER IS ALIVE!!!

[Planetsnow]

By Larry Cosgrove

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

The recent spell of somewhat milder temperatures across the eastern half of the nation has brought out the usual rantings of naysayers who have prematurely given upon winter. Read any message board or weather-oriented chat room and hear the cries (whines) that state "Winter is over...." or the equally deranged "winter cancel". As always, reasons why range from the ubiquitous "gut feeling" to the pseudoscientific babble citing various and sundry indices. At least nobody mentioned one of the groundhogs jockeying for their 15-minutes of fame last Wednesday.

Well, after examining the various computer forecasts, pouring over SST charts, and looking at satellite data, it appears that winter will be back with a vengeance over a good portion of the lower 48 states next week. Mind you, not that it ever left in the first place, since spells of milder temperatures occur in even the harshest of low sun periods. Teleconnections on trough complexes at very low latitudes, like those seen evolving between Baja CA and HI as well as the south central Atlantic Ocean after day 5, strongly suggest a highly amplified jet stream configuration over and near North America. The western negative height anomaly meshes well with a Rex signature in the vicinity of British Columbia, while the lingering oceanic low supports the formation of an NAO-styled ridge north and east of NWF (no, the North Atlantic Oscillation is not limited to blocking ridges in Greenland...at some future time I will go through parameter boundaries for the +PNA and -NAO associations). In the middle will be a full-latitude trough complex that should cover the eastern two-thirds of the continent, and supporting a cAk vortex in E ONT and QC.

The development of a subtropical high over Cuba and the Strait of Yucatan will contribute to a very pronounced mTw moisture fetch from the Caribbean Sea and equatorial Pacific Ocean into the eastern states next week. A digging shortwave from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast by the preferred 0z Feb 4 ECMWF model run to follow a path very close to the "Colorado/Trinidad" cyclone track, yanking in colder values from Canada while latching on to the higher dewpoint stream. The result could mean a multiple-threat winter storm, ranging from severe thunderstorms in the Deep South, heavy rainfall across parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and a raging snowstorm or blizzard from parts of KS and NE through NW MO....IA....N IL....WI....MI....ONT....QC during a February 8-9-10 time frame (see STORM TRACK below). The impulse will evolve to longwave (closed circulation) status, so colder air will infiltrate down to the Gulf Coast under the European model scenario.

Also keep watch on southern stream energy after February 10, as the huge low and trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean sends out shortwaves toward the cA/mT boundary that figures to run from TX to N FL. With colder values in place across much of Dixie, any frontal wave would have the chance to strengthen and possibly take a more northern trajectory upon reaching the Atlantic coastline. There is potential for some very ugly weather in the Old South and Eastern Seaboard around the 216-240 hour time frame.

Repeat after me: Winter is Alive!

[breeze]

That's right - Winter is NOT dead (for those about to
start those threads)! It's just February, by crikies!

[krysof]

"It's just February" That means winter will officially end soon. I thought they called for a cold and snowy February, those liars.

[Skywatch_NC]

Surprises have been known to occur in March though, too!

Eric

[ssom04]

Winter is over in south central Minnesota as another storm will track south of me. I also see another warm up coming next weekend

[sertorius]

ssom4:

Don't count out this week yet-the models really have not come to a concenus yet-while currently it looks south, they have been waffelling back and forth on a North-South track for the past 4 days. But yea, next weekend looks to really warm up again if the 12Z EURO is correct.

[Anonymous]

By Larry Cosgrove

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

The recent spell of somewhat milder temperatures across the eastern half of the nation has brought out the usual rantings of naysayers who have prematurely given upon winter. Read any message board or weather-oriented chat room and hear the cries (whines) that state "Winter is over...." or the equally deranged "winter cancel". As always, reasons why range from the ubiquitous "gut feeling" to the pseudoscientific babble citing various and sundry indices. At least nobody mentioned one of the groundhogs jockeying for their 15-minutes of fame last Wednesday.

Well, after examining the various computer forecasts, pouring over SST charts, and looking at satellite data, it appears that winter will be back with a vengeance over a good portion of the lower 48 states next week. Mind you, not that it ever left in the first place, since spells of milder temperatures occur in even the harshest of low sun periods. Teleconnections on trough complexes at very low latitudes, like those seen evolving between Baja CA and HI as well as the south central Atlantic Ocean after day 5, strongly suggest a highly amplified jet stream configuration over and near North America. The western negative height anomaly meshes well with a Rex signature in the vicinity of British Columbia, while the lingering oceanic low supports the formation of an NAO-styled ridge north and east of NWF (no, the North Atlantic Oscillation is not limited to blocking ridges in Greenland...at some future time I will go through parameter boundaries for the +PNA and -NAO associations). In the middle will be a full-latitude trough complex that should cover the eastern two-thirds of the continent, and supporting a cAk vortex in E ONT and QC.

The development of a subtropical high over Cuba and the Strait of Yucatan will contribute to a very pronounced mTw moisture fetch from the Caribbean Sea and equatorial Pacific Ocean into the eastern states next week. A digging shortwave from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast by the preferred 0z Feb 4 ECMWF model run to follow a path very close to the "Colorado/Trinidad" cyclone track, yanking in colder values from Canada while latching on to the higher dewpoint stream. The result could mean a multiple-threat winter storm, ranging from severe thunderstorms in the Deep South, heavy rainfall across parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and a raging snowstorm or blizzard from parts of KS and NE through NW MO....IA....N IL....WI....MI....ONT....QC during a February 8-9-10 time frame (see STORM TRACK below). The impulse will evolve to longwave (closed circulation) status, so colder air will infiltrate down to the Gulf Coast under the European model scenario.

Also keep watch on southern stream energy after February 10, as the huge low and trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean sends out shortwaves toward the cA/mT boundary that figures to run from TX to N FL. With colder values in place across much of Dixie, any frontal wave would have the chance to strengthen and possibly take a more northern trajectory upon reaching the Atlantic coastline. There is potential for some very ugly weather in the Old South and Eastern Seaboard around the 216-240 hour time frame.


Repeat after me: Winter is Alive!

Agree 100 % In fact, one of the mets on Eastern US weather is expecting a possible HECS around Feb.14 timeframe.

Winter is NOT over by a longshot !

[SnowGod]

The Models are having some problems with the February 10th system caused by the split flow pattern. The intialization is atrocious. The 12z Euro,UKMET are great examples of this problem. They simply aren't reading the pattern right which is causing bad solutions on its matrix. The ETA is the key, which is closer to the underamplified GGEM solution, a very progressive model by the way. The pattern IMO does not support a coastal low with this energy. Those 2 models though, think it does, following the GFS's logic. Not a good cook book to follow.

With this split flow pattern, the models will struggle in the medium range, badly struggle.

FWIW, the "HECS" is a 25% chance. The pattern isn't the greatest for it. But people want to buy into faulty ensemble data, so be it.

[krysof]

So is there a possibility of a February 10th snowstorm or anything at all for the northeast?

[SnowGod]

Maybe, but I just don't see it. The intialization sucks right now. The UKMET and European models are following a GFS recipe and I think it will backfire once they realize the pattern better and stop forcing in unknown variables which are causing faulty output.

The better chance for "something" in mid-month, probably for my area to as the low pressure system will probably be right over me/North next week. Some people want to hype it up, some want to warm it back up, I see something down the middle.

[yoda]

The Models are having some problems with the February 10th system caused by the split flow pattern. The intialization is atrocious. The 12z Euro,UKMET are great examples of this problem. They simply aren't reading the pattern right which is causing bad solutions on its matrix. The ETA is the key, which is closer to the underamplified GGEM solution, a very progressive model by the way. The pattern IMO does not support a coastal low with this energy. Those 2 models though, think it does, following the GFS's logic. Not a good cook book to follow.

With this split flow pattern, the models will struggle in the medium range, badly struggle.

FWIW, the "HECS" is a 25% chance. The pattern isn't the greatest for it. But people want to buy into faulty ensemble data, so be it.

Who is having problems? The GGEM and the Euro are right on with the PV split and the 50/50 low forming. Dave is correct on his post on the other weather forum. There is the POTENTIAL for a HECS if things cone together.

[DLI2k5]

By Larry Cosgrove

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

The recent spell of somewhat milder temperatures across the eastern half of the nation has brought out the usual rantings of naysayers who have prematurely given upon winter. Read any message board or weather-oriented chat room and hear the cries (whines) that state "Winter is over...." or the equally deranged "winter cancel". As always, reasons why range from the ubiquitous "gut feeling" to the pseudoscientific babble citing various and sundry indices. At least nobody mentioned one of the groundhogs jockeying for their 15-minutes of fame last Wednesday.

Well, after examining the various computer forecasts, pouring over SST charts, and looking at satellite data, it appears that winter will be back with a vengeance over a good portion of the lower 48 states next week. Mind you, not that it ever left in the first place, since spells of milder temperatures occur in even the harshest of low sun periods. Teleconnections on trough complexes at very low latitudes, like those seen evolving between Baja CA and HI as well as the south central Atlantic Ocean after day 5, strongly suggest a highly amplified jet stream configuration over and near North America. The western negative height anomaly meshes well with a Rex signature in the vicinity of British Columbia, while the lingering oceanic low supports the formation of an NAO-styled ridge north and east of NWF (no, the North Atlantic Oscillation is not limited to blocking ridges in Greenland...at some future time I will go through parameter boundaries for the +PNA and -NAO associations). In the middle will be a full-latitude trough complex that should cover the eastern two-thirds of the continent, and supporting a cAk vortex in E ONT and QC.

The development of a subtropical high over Cuba and the Strait of Yucatan will contribute to a very pronounced mTw moisture fetch from the Caribbean Sea and equatorial Pacific Ocean into the eastern states next week. A digging shortwave from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast by the preferred 0z Feb 4 ECMWF model run to follow a path very close to the "Colorado/Trinidad" cyclone track, yanking in colder values from Canada while latching on to the higher dewpoint stream. The result could mean a multiple-threat winter storm, ranging from severe thunderstorms in the Deep South, heavy rainfall across parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and a raging snowstorm or blizzard from parts of KS and NE through NW MO....IA....N IL....WI....MI....ONT....QC during a February 8-9-10 time frame (see STORM TRACK below). The impulse will evolve to longwave (closed circulation) status, so colder air will infiltrate down to the Gulf Coast under the European model scenario.

Also keep watch on southern stream energy after February 10, as the huge low and trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean sends out shortwaves toward the cA/mT boundary that figures to run from TX to N FL. With colder values in place across much of Dixie, any frontal wave would have the chance to strengthen and possibly take a more northern trajectory upon reaching the Atlantic coastline. There is potential for some very ugly weather in the Old South and Eastern Seaboard around the 216-240 hour time frame.


Repeat after me: Winter is Alive!

Agree 100 % In fact, one of the mets on Eastern US weather is expecting a possible HECS around Feb.14 timeframe.

Winter is NOT over by a longshot !

I've also heard some of the posters on another board talk about a possible SE snowstorm that could develop around Feb.14th. Does any see a possibility of this occuring at this time or is it all far fetched and just the NE gets hammered for the next storm?

[JenyEliza]

As a complete civilian, non-met, not even amateur met, I suspect winter is not over in the SE (yet). However, Mother Nature had better get a move on and bring us whatever wintery precip she has for the SE soon--or our chance to see any appreciable winter weather will soon be gone.

I've lived in the SE since 1968. Major winter storms here in March are few and far between...very hard to come by.

Jeny

[ssom04]

ssom4:

Don't count out this week yet-the models really have not come to a concenus yet-while currently it looks south, they have been waffelling back and forth on a North-South track for the past 4 days. But yea, next weekend looks to really warm up again if the 12Z EURO is correct.

Yeah I know, the 12z and 18z NAM brings the midweek system right on top of me for a regular sized snow but I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch lol. I'm wishing for the big one though! Also I'm suppose to get a couple inches tomorrow even though i reached 56 today

[sertorius]

ssom04:

The Tuesday/Wednesday event is just way up in the air-the 12Z and 18Z NAM takes it north as you said as does the 18Z GFS-but the 18Z GFS takes all the energy and sticks it down in the southern branch in south Texas-The EURO and UKMET still have a track thru Oklahoma but a weakened strom. The only reason I don't by the NAM is beacause I think the cold air will make it here-the Front is now in Northern Nebraska and sinking south-I think the NAM has the cold front stalling over Nebraska-I don't buy that-but hey, it has a better chance of verifying than anything else-I'd much rather have the NAM on my side than the GFS!!! Good luck-Hopefully one of us will get some snow!! You and I are kind of in a doughnut this winter!!

[SnowGod]

The Progressive pattern really looks like it may want to stay in for awhile. The main thing is what to do with the energy from the mid-week system as it sweeps across the country? I am not eliminating a "snowstorm", but I don't think that is the real destiny of this system, but its effects on the pattern thereafter.

I don't fully buy the 0z European. Its model bias is to over do the close off, which it clearly is doing at 168hrs though the overall idea is better than its horrid 12z run.

Matter of fact, I don't see any figuration that does impress me. Winter looks to be sort of stuck in the middle at one time, it wants to live, but at the same time, it looks like it wants a early spring.

What to do? I think the hype will be greater than the reality to the 22-28 period when a surprising last second charge will begin into March................