Tropical Cyclones Vivienne & Ex-Harvey

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak: 1.5

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:44am on Sunday the 6th of February 2005

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities
between Weipa in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

At 5am EST [4:30am CST] a tropical low, 999 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.0 south longitude 140.0 east, which is 210 kilometres west northwest of Pormpuraaw. The low is near stationary but is expected to begin moving slowly southwards.

The low is expected to slowly intensify, and may reach Tropical Cyclone strength on Monday as it moves slowly south. As the low deepens, gales may develop on Monday over coastal and island communities between Weipa in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.






Dvorak: 2.0

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE USTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ENTRE PERTH AT 1640UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the verages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical low with central pressure 995hPA located at 1600UTC
Within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal two south [16.2S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal eight east [116.8E]
moving southwest at 4 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of centre in the eastern quadrants extending to within 10 nautical miles in the western quadrants.

FORECAST
The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12/18 ours. Expect 30/45 knot winds in western quadrants to extend to eastern quadrants as the low develops, with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0400UTC 06 February 16.6 south 116.4 east 990hPa
At 1600UTC 06 February 17.0 south 116.0 east 980hPa

Next warning issued at 2300UTC 5 February 2005


Slow movement, warm sea-surface temperatures, and appreciable good upper-level conditions, the systems should intensify without any problem in the next 24 hours. If named, 99S wil be called "Vivienne" and 90P "Harvey."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They both look like oreganized tropical storms to me. The Jtwc is given the nhc one heck of a good run for there dollar this year. Have to see if the nhc can improves in 2005 some???

[rainstorm]

do you have pics of them?

[cycloneye]

do you have pics of them?

Pics are right above at thread.

[senorpepr]

They both look like oreganized tropical storms to me. The Jtwc is given the nhc one heck of a good run for there dollar this year. Have to see if the nhc can improves in 2005 some???

Okay... ease up there. First, realize that JTWC is not an official tropical cyclone warning agency, according to the WMO. They are similar a US military agency.

Second, there's no need to bash the NHC already. It's only February.

Third, these systems are not organized tropical storms. They are still weak and are considered tropical lows. This is from the official warning agencies for these systems, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They are looking more oreganized in should be cyclones very soon!

[rainstorm]

do you have pics of them?

Pics are right above at thread.

thanks

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:38am on Sunday the 6th of February 2005

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities
between Pormpuraaw in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory. The watch is cancelled between Weipa and Pormpuraaw.

At 10am EST [9:30am CST] Tropical Cyclone Harvey, category 1, with central pressure 995 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.0 south longitude 139.7 east, which is 230 kilometres west northwest of Pormpuraaw. Harvey is near stationary but is expected to begin moving slowly southwards.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to slowly intensify and as it moves southwards gales may develop on Monday over coastal and island communities between Pormpuraaw and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

Higher than normal tides are expected in between Weipa and Port McArthur.

People between Pormpuraaw in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory should consider action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5pm EST [4.30 pm CST] Sunday.

[Andrew92]

And to think the Atlantic has Harvey for a name too....might he be out for double trouble? Let's hope not.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

SPECTACULAR!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:56pm on Sunday the 6th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island
communities between Karumba in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH remains in place between Karumba and Pormpuraaw.

At 4pm EST [3:30pm CST] Tropical Cyclone Harvey, category 1, with central pressure 992 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.6 south longitude 139.7 east, which is 210km west of Pormpuraaw. Harvey is moving south at about 10 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to slowly intensify and move south-southwest during the next 24 hours. Gales may develop on Monday afternoon over coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Weipa and Port McArthur.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Harvey, Category 1, for 4pm EST / 3:30pm CST
Central Pressure : 992 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 14.6 degrees south
longitude 139.7 degrees east
about 210 kilometres west of Pormpuraaw
Recent Movement : south at 10 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Port McArthur and Karumba should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8pm EST [7:30pm CST]. If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 8pm EST [7:30pm CST].

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:35pm on Sunday the 6th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
Karumba in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

A Cyclone WATCH remains in place between Karumba and Pormpuraaw.

At 7pm EST [6:30pm CST] Tropical Cyclone Harvey, category 1, with central
pressure 992 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.8 south longitude 139.5 east,
which is 210km north of Mornington Island. Recent movement has been to the
southwest at about 10 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to slowly intensify as it moves towards the
southwest overnight and is then forecast to move southward during Monday.
Gales may develop on Monday afternoon over coastal and island communities
between Karumba and Port McArthur.

Abnormally high tides are expected around the eastern and southern Gulf
coastline.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Harvey, Category 1, for 7pm EST / 6:30pm CST
Central Pressure : 992 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 14.8 degrees south
longitude 139.5 degrees east
about 210 kilometres north of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Port McArthur and Karumba should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 11pm EST [10:30pm CST] .
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 11pm EST [10:30pm CST] .

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt

[P.K.]

Edit - It posted it twice for some reason.....

[P.K.]

IDQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: TRANSMITTERS SERVING THE QUEENSLAND AREA BETWEEN KARUMBA AND THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY BORDER ARE REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING
SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:44am on Monday the 7th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

At 7am EST [6:30am CST] Tropical Cyclone Harvey, category 2, with central
pressure 985 hPa, was centred near latitude 15.4 south longitude 139.2 east,
which is about 140km north of Mornington Island. The cyclone has recently been
moving towards the south-southwest at 15 km/hr.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the south
southwest this morning and intensify. Gales are expected this morning on
Mornington Island, and to develop about other coastal and island communities
between Karumba and Port McArthur later in the day.

Residents of Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up
to a level well above the normal tide. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will add to the flooding of some low lying areas close to the
shoreline.

Abnormally high tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Harvey, Category 2, for 7am EST / 6:30am CST
Central Pressure : 985 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.4 degrees south
longitude 139.2 degrees east
about 140 kilometres north of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the south-southwest at 15 km/hr.
Maximum wind gusts : 125 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Port McArthur and Karumba should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 11 am EST [10:30 am CST] .
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am EST [10:30 am CST].

[P.K.]

DQP0005
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: TRANSMITTERS SERVING THE QUEENSLAND AREA BETWEEN KARUMBA AND THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY BORDER ARE REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING
SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:43am on Monday the 7th of February 2005

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Karumba
in Queensland and Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.

At 10am EST [9:30am CST] Tropical Cyclone Harvey, category 2, with central
pressure 978 hPa, was centred near latitude 15.7 south longitude 138.8 east,
which is about 115km north northwest of Mornington Island. The cyclone has
recently been moving towards the southwest at 16 km/hr.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey is expected to continue moving towards the coast and
intensify. Gales are expected on Mornington Island, and to develop about other
coastal and island communities between Karumba and Port McArthur later in the
day.

Residents of Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm
tide as the cyclone approaches the island. The sea is likely to rise steadily up
to a level significantly above the normal tide with strong currents and flooding
of low lying areas extending some way inland. Along the exposed northwest coast,
damaging waves will also contribute to the flooding. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible.

Dangerous storm tides are also expected elsewhere around the eastern and
southern Gulf coastline, particularly between Burketown and Karumba.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Harvey, Category 2, for 10am EST / 9:30am CST
Central Pressure : 978 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.7 degrees south
longitude 138.8 degrees east
about 115 kilometres north-northwest of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the southwest at 16 km/hr.
Destructive winds : out to 50 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour, intensifying.

People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 12 pm EST [11:30 am
CST]
If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from
your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 12 pm EST [11:30 am CST]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1930 UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2005

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Harvey 988 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.0S 139.3E. TC Harvey has moved south at 6 knots recently and is expected to move south to southwestward today.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST Sustained winds to 45 knots near centre, increasing to 55 knots later today. Clockwise winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre. High seas and moderate to heavy swell.

0600 UTC 07 February:
15.8 S 138.9 E 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 07 February:
16.7 S 138.6 E 980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


TC Harvey continues to intensify as it gets closer to the south coast in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Dvorak supports 45 knots, as it indicates Harvey is 3.0. This cyclone has increased its movement in the last hours, thus it should not get really strong, at least it doesn't have enough time and space; I hope!

[senorpepr]

WTAU03 ADRM 070129
IDD20130
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NORTHERN TERRITORY REGION
DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE

40:2:1:24:10S135E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
AT 0130 UTC 7 FEBRUARY 2005

PLEASE BE AWARE
WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE,
AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY 978 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF
15.7S 138.8E. TC HARVEY HAS MOVED SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS RECENTLY AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY.

AREA AFFECTED
WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL
SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY SWELL.

1200 UTC 07 FEBRUARY:
16.3 S 138.4 E 970 HPA. WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.
0000 UTC 08 FEBRUARY:
17.5 S 138.4 E 980 HPA. OVER LAND. WINDS TO 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE.

REMARKS
SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS.



DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

[HURAKAN]

In JTWC's 3rd advisory concerning TC Harvey we see a stronger, better organized system that continues to get closer to land. Curiously, at the end of the track the cyclone is shown to turn eastward and NOGAPS shows the system emerging to the Pacific coast and reintensifying a little bit before once again making landfall in the Queensland east coast. Let see what happens!

[senorpepr]

JTWC/NRL has upgraded 99S to 17S...

[HurricaneBill]

Is there a chance Harvey might reach hurricane strength?