Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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TT-SEA
Here's the story for tonight...
1) If you're under a heavy shower, you may briefly change to wet snow. Probably no accumulation but something to look at. Initial temperature will range from 35-38F, but with evaporative cooling expect temperatures to briefly drop between 32-34F supporting wet snow.
2) If you have light precipitation, expect mainly rain with a few wet flakes mixing in from time to time. Temperatures will range from 36-40F, depending on wind speeds and directions.
Interesting note to see the current observation in Everett reporting a NE wind...unfortunately there's no arctic air bottled up in British Columbia. Once the surface low develops and moves ashore, the winds should turn more southwesterly and the temperatures will probably rise throughout the night. But still interesting to watch.
Anthony
Goodnite to all!!! I'm done for tonight. Hopefully I'll wake up to a surprise snow event, but I won't get my hopes up!! lol.
1) If you're under a heavy shower, you may briefly change to wet snow. Probably no accumulation but something to look at. Initial temperature will range from 35-38F, but with evaporative cooling expect temperatures to briefly drop between 32-34F supporting wet snow.
2) If you have light precipitation, expect mainly rain with a few wet flakes mixing in from time to time. Temperatures will range from 36-40F, depending on wind speeds and directions.
Interesting note to see the current observation in Everett reporting a NE wind...unfortunately there's no arctic air bottled up in British Columbia. Once the surface low develops and moves ashore, the winds should turn more southwesterly and the temperatures will probably rise throughout the night. But still interesting to watch.
Anthony
Goodnite to all!!! I'm done for tonight. Hopefully I'll wake up to a surprise snow event, but I won't get my hopes up!! lol.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...You have got to be kidding! 59 on Friday? You need to look at the surface pressure map for hour 120. Very weak offshore flow with a thickness below 540. That equals mid to upper 40s at best. If it's foogy more like 40 - 45. That offshore gradient is so weak that even North Bend will not get an east wind! On top of that the GFS had been showing our heights would rise to 570 or higher now it is showing about 555 in a deformation zone. The high it had been showing is no more! 
On another note....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_240m.htm
Not excactly spring. The last I heard Northwest Territories was a bit cold. That is where the jetstream on this map is coming from! In fact the progs at day 8 show snow...516 thickness, offshore flow, moisture, 850mb temps -9 = snow.
On another note....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_240m.htm
Not excactly spring. The last I heard Northwest Territories was a bit cold. That is where the jetstream on this map is coming from! In fact the progs at day 8 show snow...516 thickness, offshore flow, moisture, 850mb temps -9 = snow.
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TT-SEA
Thank you yoda.
Wizzard - this is where your disappointment starts. Some wild scenario on the GFS that makes no sense. The next 4 runs will look different every time for the 8-15 day period. You can just sense when the GFS loses track of the pattern and spirals out of control. Sometimes it can hold through its run with a reasonable pattern. Other times some variable tweaks it... and the results are like a car in a skid on ice.
There should be southerly flow on Friday. I have seen this pattern several times in the last three weeks. It is supposed to be cloudy and rainy but then the infamous blocking ridge kicks in and instead we are on the far east side of the trough. The mid and high level clouds break and form a semi-circle from the coast up to Bellingham. Leaving the Seattle area in sunshine. If that happens it will be close to or beyond 60 degrees... especially with increased sun angle with every passing day.
The possible problems with that scenario... high pressure is too strong and we have NO flow at all and then of course stagnant fog. Or the system comes in quicker and its cloudy and/or raining. The 00Z ECMWF still shows it arriving Friday.
We will see.
Wizzard - this is where your disappointment starts. Some wild scenario on the GFS that makes no sense. The next 4 runs will look different every time for the 8-15 day period. You can just sense when the GFS loses track of the pattern and spirals out of control. Sometimes it can hold through its run with a reasonable pattern. Other times some variable tweaks it... and the results are like a car in a skid on ice.
There should be southerly flow on Friday. I have seen this pattern several times in the last three weeks. It is supposed to be cloudy and rainy but then the infamous blocking ridge kicks in and instead we are on the far east side of the trough. The mid and high level clouds break and form a semi-circle from the coast up to Bellingham. Leaving the Seattle area in sunshine. If that happens it will be close to or beyond 60 degrees... especially with increased sun angle with every passing day.
The possible problems with that scenario... high pressure is too strong and we have NO flow at all and then of course stagnant fog. Or the system comes in quicker and its cloudy and/or raining. The 00Z ECMWF still shows it arriving Friday.
We will see.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
You are still assuming I am going to be disappointed and that it will not snow tomorrow. How do you know it won't? You may be intersted to know that the MM5 is showing substantial lowland snow tomorrow morning. That model is normally very conservative. If it does snow, I guess I was right along wasn't I?
I admit that I grab onto good looking model runs too easily, but you grab onto ones that fit your agenda also. You have been expecting that ridge late in the week for several days, and the GFS keeps toning it down to where it's almost nothing. You also fail to mention that two days after what little ridge it does show, we go into a deep trough with northerly flow. I know it is the first run that shows this, but it is showing it. The ECMWF also shows a cold trough approaching at day 7. As for Yoda...I think we have all seen patterns that we thought were impossible this year. I had one guy telling for days there was no way the Pacific NW would get cold in early Jan, and it did. Apparently someone forgot to tell mother nature that some things are SUPPOSEDLY impossible. I can buy that some of the details at day 9 or so are likely a little off, but the general premise could easily be right.
I admit that I grab onto good looking model runs too easily, but you grab onto ones that fit your agenda also. You have been expecting that ridge late in the week for several days, and the GFS keeps toning it down to where it's almost nothing. You also fail to mention that two days after what little ridge it does show, we go into a deep trough with northerly flow. I know it is the first run that shows this, but it is showing it. The ECMWF also shows a cold trough approaching at day 7. As for Yoda...I think we have all seen patterns that we thought were impossible this year. I had one guy telling for days there was no way the Pacific NW would get cold in early Jan, and it did. Apparently someone forgot to tell mother nature that some things are SUPPOSEDLY impossible. I can buy that some of the details at day 9 or so are likely a little off, but the general premise could easily be right.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Yes... the MM5 has some lowland snow tomorrow. Not sure if I should believe it but even with that... Covington (and Seattle) gets rain.
If it were perfect... then Bremerton would get some heavy wet snow and Anthony and R-Dub may also get lucky.
I remember for the event on 1/12/05 the MM5 showed 10 inches of snow for places on the I-90 corridor east of Issaquah including North Bend (in the first 12 hours of its run). We got nothing at all. In fact... nobody got anything that day.
I have not yet determined how good the MM5 is with precipitation type. Still it is interesting.
If it were perfect... then Bremerton would get some heavy wet snow and Anthony and R-Dub may also get lucky.
I remember for the event on 1/12/05 the MM5 showed 10 inches of snow for places on the I-90 corridor east of Issaquah including North Bend (in the first 12 hours of its run). We got nothing at all. In fact... nobody got anything that day.
I have not yet determined how good the MM5 is with precipitation type. Still it is interesting.
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Dewpoint currently below freezing, but we will see if it will be all rain or something else when it reaches me...........I am off to work since its dry out 
I wanted to sleep in badly!! 
Well be back later in the morning.
SUPERBOWL SUNDAY
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:26:14 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 35.3
Humidity (%) 81.5
Wind (mph) ESE 2.4
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.84
Dew Point: 31.1 ºF
I wanted to sleep in badly!! Well be back later in the morning.
SUPERBOWL SUNDAY
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:26:14 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 35.3
Humidity (%) 81.5
Wind (mph) ESE 2.4
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.84
Dew Point: 31.1 ºF
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It just started RAINING. Currently 35 F with a light southeast wind. A few wet flakes mix in from time to time, but no accumulation expected. But some reports from Hoodsport to Shelton say there's almost 4 inches of wet snow on the ground. Unfortunately, this event doesn't support a widespread snow below 1000 feet. A little too much mixing at the surface and not cold enough temperatures.
Anthony
Anthony
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AnthonyC wrote:Another thing, latest GFS models look unrealistically cold beginning Sunday, Feb. 13 thru that entire week. 500 mb heights are down to almost 518...could this be correct? Very little moisture during this time period, but cold.
Maybe it will set the stage for an overrunning event, you never know. Let's just hope the GFS doesn't flip flop ...
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TT-SEA
Where do I start??
There is no snow at the Hood Canal...
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/cwcam.aspx?cam=1150
No snow at Rock Candy Mountain near Shelton...
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/cwcam.aspx?cam=1151
I cannot tell for sure but it looks like there is no snow in Bremerton. After the rain has started temperatures are still in the upper 30's around Seattle. No evaporative cooling.
Cold rain for today guys... and not much of that even.
There is no snow at the Hood Canal...
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/cwcam.aspx?cam=1150
No snow at Rock Candy Mountain near Shelton...
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/cwcam.aspx?cam=1151
I cannot tell for sure but it looks like there is no snow in Bremerton. After the rain has started temperatures are still in the upper 30's around Seattle. No evaporative cooling.
Cold rain for today guys... and not much of that even.
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TT-SEA
And I don't want to hear how "close" it was. The fact is... this is what happens in this situation most of the time. This is why Seattle is famous for rain and not snow.
Because our marine climate typically holds temperatures just warm enough for rain (with the exception of the occasional arctic outflow).
Because our marine climate typically holds temperatures just warm enough for rain (with the exception of the occasional arctic outflow).
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And that's why I never got my hopes up for this event. Still, with a moderate shower overhead...we currently have a rain/snow mix. Winds have really increased too.
Although none of those web cams show snow, elevations above 500 feet have reported almost four inches.
You were correct TT-SEA...but I wouldn't go rubbing people's noses in it. Not gonna win you many brownie points.
Anthony
Although none of those web cams show snow, elevations above 500 feet have reported almost four inches.
You were correct TT-SEA...but I wouldn't go rubbing people's noses in it. Not gonna win you many brownie points.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
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