Southern and Central Midwest Listen up!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

After a wet and mild start to this week there is going to be another one of those holy but hard to predict pattern changes, although I believe this time almost for sure somethings coming, and it's gonna bring alot of the white stuff to areas in the midwest that normally don't get a whole lot of it. That's right I'm talking about Saint Louis, MO, Kansas City, Both Springfields of MO, and IL as far east as Columbus, OH and maybe farther. The Point is after this primary storm there will be as you all know a secondary storm by early midweek tuesday/wednesday time frame. This storm will pull colder air farther south then the first storm, and the maybe enough cold air to bring possibly 2-4 inches of wet snow between Springfield, MO and Saint Louis, MO, with rain to the south and 1-2 inches amounts of snow north of these areas. After this storm there will be a third more stronger storm, but not as powerful as the first, that will arrive by the weekend. This one needed to be watched for it has the potential to dump 6-10 inches in the states of Missouri, Kansas, southern half of Illinois, and the Northern Ohio Valley region. That storm should depart by Monday early morning if not by late sunday night, and then things should become colder for much of the midwest with yet another snowstorm possible somewhere in the central midwest prior to the 20th or the sunday after next sunday. Ignore the 06UTC run of the GFS and it's warmth it is obviously a fluke and the 12UTC GFS seems slightly cooler this run. The extented isn't out yet, but I'm sure it will be no where near as warm as the last run. Another warm spell doesn't appear to arrive until at the soonest the last week of the month. Stay tuned for farther updates later in the week.

[sertorius]

GothPunk-Il-Wx:

Good post. I have been posting my thoughts in the Lawrence/Kansas City thread but have not had a chance yet today. A couple of points:

1. Today/Tomorrow: I'm not so sure the GFS and NAM have not missed this event some what. Both as late as 12Z today have the low comming North with the front just North of KC and had Omaha still at 38 at 6:00 tonight. Well, the front has now cleared Nebraska and central Kansas-Omaha is at 32- and is entering North West Missouri and North East Kansas with the low still on the Kansas/Colorado Border-the Front is about 200 miles West and about 90 miles North of me as we speak. I would not be surprised to see that low track further South and East than those modles have progged. Interersting to note: the Euro has had that southern track for the past 3 days but nobody has said much about it. The euro takes it across southern kansas and then up thru Central Missouri. Not saying I will get a good snow, but I could ge a bit more back lash than progged earlier.

2. If the modles missed this 8 hours before the event, then I'd say the Tuesday/Wed. event is still up in the air an area from Topeka-St. Louis could see 3-6 inches with eastern areas on the high side-Nebraska looks to have a pretty good amount of snow the next 72 hours. I'm prob. wrong on all this, but those are some random thoughts. Based on all models currently, yea, I'm in line for about 2 inches (3-4 if the UKMET verified) but that low may be stronger than progged-will be a pretty gopod temp. gradient for it to work with. That being said, thunderstorms to the south could suck mositure away from my area.

3. Next weekend: Man, I don't know about that-the GFS def. has been honking for about 3 days on this and if it were to verify, it would be our biggest winter weather maker of the year-however, the GFS does this every run and I don't believe it-esp. considering the EURO which would give us rain. Time will tell, but at least we look to see some weather. I said I thought that if this Tuesday deal did not work, my area was running out of time unless the sub tropical jet produces something-that seems to be exactlly what is happening. By the way the 12Z GFS does show anarctice out break at 300 hours-by tomorrow, that will show temps. in the 80's!!!! LOL!!!

Looks like some good times ahead!!