So close yet so far.
Pretty typical.
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
You could be right TT.
TT.......Just predict snow for everyone, that way it will happen
You have been just about dead on with the forecast lately!!
Here is the latest NWS Seattle Forecast................
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 215 PM PST SUN FEB 6 2005
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON LATER THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OFF THE COAST SPLITTING. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN WASHINGTON IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK FRONTS WILL GIVE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...A 1004 MB LOW 20 NM W OF DESTRUCTION ISLAND AT 2 PM IS MOVING SSE. A COLD RAIN IS PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY NEAR 1000 FEET. SNOW MAY BE MIXING TO THE SURFACE AT TIME IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. SNOW HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FRASER OUTFLOW AS THE LOW PULLED SWD ALONG THE COAST. MOST CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND ON ORCAS ISLAND SHOW ABOUT 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE. RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THERE IN THE WARMER AIR...AND THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING S WITH TIME. SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR NW INTERIOR TO BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS I POSTED A SNOW ADVISORY IN THE SAN JUANS AND IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY MIDDAY UNTIL 7 PM. THE SNOW ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES OVER THE OLYMPICS THRU 7 PM. THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KITSAP/HOOD CANAL AREA WAS DROPPED AS NO REPORTS RECEIVED AND KPWT AWOS WHILE SHOWING OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO 3/4SM WITH MOD PCPN HAS WARMED TO 38 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 36. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS SOUTH AND AWAY. THEN WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GIVE SOME SUN ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUE WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER THE S INTERIOR. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 150W WILL STRETCH AND SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE W COAST. MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE NOW AND ARE DRY OVER WA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING SPLIT SYSTEM PUSHES US BACK INTO EARLY SPRINGTIME CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO +2 C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 50S IN DAYTIME SUNSHINE.
FORECASTS FOR THE MON THRU THU PERIOD WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WEAKENING AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS ARRIVE SOMETIME FRI AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN THIS SPLIT PATTERN MODELS HAVE A GENERAL IDEA THAT WEAKENING FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONTS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY CONSISTENTLY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND IS SIMILAR TO GOING FORECASTS THAT ARE GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY BROAD BRUSH FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WAIT FOR MODEL SIMULATIONS TO SETTLE DOWN BEFORE TRYING TO ADD ANY DETAIL. ALBRECHT &&
TT.......Just predict snow for everyone, that way it will happen
You have been just about dead on with the forecast lately!!
Here is the latest NWS Seattle Forecast................
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 215 PM PST SUN FEB 6 2005
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON LATER THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OFF THE COAST SPLITTING. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN WASHINGTON IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK FRONTS WILL GIVE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. &&
.DISCUSSION...A 1004 MB LOW 20 NM W OF DESTRUCTION ISLAND AT 2 PM IS MOVING SSE. A COLD RAIN IS PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY NEAR 1000 FEET. SNOW MAY BE MIXING TO THE SURFACE AT TIME IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. SNOW HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FRASER OUTFLOW AS THE LOW PULLED SWD ALONG THE COAST. MOST CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND ON ORCAS ISLAND SHOW ABOUT 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THERE. RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THERE IN THE WARMER AIR...AND THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING S WITH TIME. SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR NW INTERIOR TO BE AN INCH OR SO AT MOST. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS I POSTED A SNOW ADVISORY IN THE SAN JUANS AND IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY MIDDAY UNTIL 7 PM. THE SNOW ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES OVER THE OLYMPICS THRU 7 PM. THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KITSAP/HOOD CANAL AREA WAS DROPPED AS NO REPORTS RECEIVED AND KPWT AWOS WHILE SHOWING OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO 3/4SM WITH MOD PCPN HAS WARMED TO 38 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 36. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS SOUTH AND AWAY. THEN WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GIVE SOME SUN ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUE WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG OVER THE S INTERIOR. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 150W WILL STRETCH AND SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE W COAST. MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE NOW AND ARE DRY OVER WA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING SPLIT SYSTEM PUSHES US BACK INTO EARLY SPRINGTIME CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO +2 C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOWER 50S IN DAYTIME SUNSHINE.
FORECASTS FOR THE MON THRU THU PERIOD WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WEAKENING AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS ARRIVE SOMETIME FRI AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN THIS SPLIT PATTERN MODELS HAVE A GENERAL IDEA THAT WEAKENING FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONTS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED VERY CONSISTENTLY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND IS SIMILAR TO GOING FORECASTS THAT ARE GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY BROAD BRUSH FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WAIT FOR MODEL SIMULATIONS TO SETTLE DOWN BEFORE TRYING TO ADD ANY DETAIL. ALBRECHT &&
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We just dropped down to 35.1 degrees with the very intense precip falling at the moment. Still the same gloppy mess falling though.........
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:05:10 PM CURRENT
Heavy Rain/Snow Mix
Temperature (ºF) 35.1
Humidity (%) 97.6
Wind (mph) ESE 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.31
Pressure ("Hg) 29.81
Dew Point: 34.5 ºF
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:05:10 PM CURRENT
Heavy Rain/Snow Mix
Temperature (ºF) 35.1
Humidity (%) 97.6
Wind (mph) ESE 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.31
Pressure ("Hg) 29.81
Dew Point: 34.5 ºF
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This is a great online weather station for Lynden.................
http://www.thecartooner.com/wxlocal/myweather.html
http://www.thecartooner.com/wxlocal/myweather.html
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R-Dub wrote:This is a great online weather station for Lynden.................
http://www.thecartooner.com/wxlocal/myweather.html
Great find R-Dub!
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TT-SEA
Precipitation finally overcame downsloping and it raining here and 39 degrees. I can actually look up on the ridge behind our house (elevation 2,000 feet) and see snow falling up there. But just rain down here. Pretty wild.
And there it is finally snowing at Snoqualmie Pass...
http://wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/passes/snoqualmie/default.aspx?imgparam=3
And there it is finally snowing at Snoqualmie Pass...
http://wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/passes/snoqualmie/default.aspx?imgparam=3
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R-Dub wrote:W13 wrote:R-Dub wrote:Wish I could set up a weather station like that here in my location!!
Do want to get a nice home weather station set up sometime though
I'm getting one very soon.
Let me know what you get! I am going to start checking all the different ones that are avalible.
I'm thinking about getting this one, Randy. It is medium-priced compared to others, and basically comes with the same features. It is also wireless, which makes things a whole lot easier. Have yourself a look:
http://www.ambientweather.com/wslacrprwiwe.html
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TT-SEA
Just a post-storm wrap-up...
Temperatures dropped a little in the Seattle area as the low drifted south but have started to go up again as the low slowly weakens. This event will start winding down and temperatures should hold either side of 40 degrees through the evening... then drop a little as skies begin to clear.
No question... this storm was a "non-event" (for snow) for almost everyone but those living close to the Canadian border.
But we did get some some very beneficial rain!!
Even looking at web cams over in Kitsap and Jeffereson counties... there is no lowland snow that stuck to the ground. The Hood Canal... Bremerton... bare ground. Shelton also has no snow on the ground.
As I said before... even in Bellingham is was extremely marginal as the temperature stayed above freezing and some places around town had no accumulation.
Temperatures dropped a little in the Seattle area as the low drifted south but have started to go up again as the low slowly weakens. This event will start winding down and temperatures should hold either side of 40 degrees through the evening... then drop a little as skies begin to clear.
No question... this storm was a "non-event" (for snow) for almost everyone but those living close to the Canadian border.
But we did get some some very beneficial rain!!
Even looking at web cams over in Kitsap and Jeffereson counties... there is no lowland snow that stuck to the ground. The Hood Canal... Bremerton... bare ground. Shelton also has no snow on the ground.
As I said before... even in Bellingham is was extremely marginal as the temperature stayed above freezing and some places around town had no accumulation.
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Still a sloppy goop falling from the sky! I have never seen mixed precip fall for so long (10:00AM- 5:00PM and still occurring)...... from 7:30AM to 10:00 it was straight snow with a slight slushy accumulation.
Typically if there is mixed precip, it goes one way or the other. Either turns to snow, or turns to rain.
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
4:50:07 PM CURRENT
Rain/Snow Mix
Temperature (ºF) 34.9
Humidity (%) 98.8
Wind (mph) ESE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.38
Pressure ("Hg) 29.85
Dew Point: 34.7 ºF
Typically if there is mixed precip, it goes one way or the other. Either turns to snow, or turns to rain.
2/6/05 LK Goodwin WA
4:50:07 PM CURRENT
Rain/Snow Mix
Temperature (ºF) 34.9
Humidity (%) 98.8
Wind (mph) ESE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.38
Pressure ("Hg) 29.85
Dew Point: 34.7 ºF
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W13 wrote:R-Dub wrote:W13 wrote:R-Dub wrote:Wish I could set up a weather station like that here in my location!!
Do want to get a nice home weather station set up sometime though
I'm getting one very soon.
Let me know what you get! I am going to start checking all the different ones that are avalible.
I'm thinking about getting this one, Randy. It is medium-priced compared to others, and basically comes with the same features. It is also wireless, which makes things a whole lot easier. Have yourself a look:
http://www.ambientweather.com/wslacrprwiwe.html
That looks like a great setup! Not very expensive also. Last time I looked a few yrs back, something like that was nearly $500!!
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gunner1551
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 12:08 pm
Time: 5:02
i am just north of the border about 3 hours and we are getting some heavy snow in the okanagan valley. has been snowing for 2 hours now. its so nice to see the return of snow. and i was looking at the extended forcast for this area and another low pressure is coming down with considerable moisture. so that spells snow for this area. now if it spills down towards u guys in northern wash is another story in it self. but i will hope and pray that it does come down after it dumps a few inches on us first. well i hope this continues into the night and i get a nice surprize in the morning. bye for now will be back later tonite.
i am just north of the border about 3 hours and we are getting some heavy snow in the okanagan valley. has been snowing for 2 hours now. its so nice to see the return of snow. and i was looking at the extended forcast for this area and another low pressure is coming down with considerable moisture. so that spells snow for this area. now if it spills down towards u guys in northern wash is another story in it self. but i will hope and pray that it does come down after it dumps a few inches on us first. well i hope this continues into the night and i get a nice surprize in the morning. bye for now will be back later tonite.
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TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard... not to "rain" on your parade... but the GFS has completely abandoned its wild ideas from the run yesterday.
It now keeps us in a semi-zonal flow (good for the mountains) for a few days and then maybe some more high pressure the following week.
Where is this intense arctic blast to offset our record setting end of January??
It now keeps us in a semi-zonal flow (good for the mountains) for a few days and then maybe some more high pressure the following week.
Where is this intense arctic blast to offset our record setting end of January??
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Well...just as I feared. No clear winner on this debate. The west side of Puget Sound, Whatcom County, and Island County certainly got their snow. I will admit defeat on my prediction for snow on the east side of the Sound. We had snow mixed with rain in Covington, but that just doesn't cut it. I drove to Palmer, almost certain I would see snow, and was shocked to find it was about 200 feet above there. There was simply not enough cold air in place in eastern WA to pull it off. On the other hand the NWS really blew it on not seeing the cold potential for Whatcom County. The models were clear that Fraser River outflow would hit that area, and it did.
The next question is how cold the next few nights will be. Right now, tomorrow night looks clear with fairly cold and dry air in place. I think some areas will see 20 - 25. Cold enough to freeze the ground pretty hard. The GFS continues to whittle away at the window of opportunity for warm weather later this week. Right now it looks like maybe one or two above normal days and that's it. In fact it may only be one.
It is now time to regroup and look for the next opportunity. We can all agree that we have had our chances, and will likely see a couple more. Like Brennan pointed out to me today...what if today's storm had happened with even a modest amount of cold air already in place....We would have gotten clobbered. It is quite amazing how close we have gotten on so many occaisions this winter...
The next question is how cold the next few nights will be. Right now, tomorrow night looks clear with fairly cold and dry air in place. I think some areas will see 20 - 25. Cold enough to freeze the ground pretty hard. The GFS continues to whittle away at the window of opportunity for warm weather later this week. Right now it looks like maybe one or two above normal days and that's it. In fact it may only be one.
It is now time to regroup and look for the next opportunity. We can all agree that we have had our chances, and will likely see a couple more. Like Brennan pointed out to me today...what if today's storm had happened with even a modest amount of cold air already in place....We would have gotten clobbered. It is quite amazing how close we have gotten on so many occaisions this winter...
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TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard... I will give you Whatcom county. But I never really considered the possibilities up there. Its too unique and far away.
Kitsap and Island Counties had snow... but at elevations below 500 feet there is nothing on the ground. Of course where the 2 million people live in the immediate Seattle area... it was a cold, rainy day.
High today at Sea-Tac was one degree WARMER than even I predicted at 43 degrees!! So I cannot say that I made an error being too warm. The fact is... without arctic air and in February it is tough NOT to get above 40 degrees.
Finally... the GFS has not whittled away the ridge. In fact the last few runs have bought back the ridge for Thursday and Friday. Two days ago it had whittled away the ridge and bought a system in Friday morning. Now it has EXPANDED the ridge and Friday looks to be sunny. Funny how we see things. I have pinned those two days down for the last week and it still shows warmer weather and sunshine.
Overall this will be a very pleasant week with temperatures near normal and then somewhat above normal with no precipitation for the entire work week.
The system for next weekend looks to have much less potential than this past system. And as of last Sunday we were all over this weekend's storm. Standard system for the middle of February. Snow levels down to maybe 2,000 feet. It should then be the East Coast's turn to get colder and probably snowier. We should generally have high pressure through the end of February.
I still say a major shift in the pattern will occur after March 1st. I think Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass may end up with 100 inches of snow for March. Lots of rain down here... but there is a chance of something else!!
Kitsap and Island Counties had snow... but at elevations below 500 feet there is nothing on the ground. Of course where the 2 million people live in the immediate Seattle area... it was a cold, rainy day.
High today at Sea-Tac was one degree WARMER than even I predicted at 43 degrees!! So I cannot say that I made an error being too warm. The fact is... without arctic air and in February it is tough NOT to get above 40 degrees.
Finally... the GFS has not whittled away the ridge. In fact the last few runs have bought back the ridge for Thursday and Friday. Two days ago it had whittled away the ridge and bought a system in Friday morning. Now it has EXPANDED the ridge and Friday looks to be sunny. Funny how we see things. I have pinned those two days down for the last week and it still shows warmer weather and sunshine.
Overall this will be a very pleasant week with temperatures near normal and then somewhat above normal with no precipitation for the entire work week.
The system for next weekend looks to have much less potential than this past system. And as of last Sunday we were all over this weekend's storm. Standard system for the middle of February. Snow levels down to maybe 2,000 feet. It should then be the East Coast's turn to get colder and probably snowier. We should generally have high pressure through the end of February.
I still say a major shift in the pattern will occur after March 1st. I think Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass may end up with 100 inches of snow for March. Lots of rain down here... but there is a chance of something else!!
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Yeah didn't Snowwiz say there would be outflow when others said no outflow even for the boarder folks.
And TT predicted the other areas of the sound very well, so it looks like you BOTH WON!
I like you both, but I hope Snowwiz is the winner when he says lows of 20-25 degrees! LETS SLOW DOWN THAT GRASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If we don't slow it down, my crew and I are in big trouble because it is now to wet to mow much. Things could get very tall if we #1 don't get below freezing for several hrs for a couple of nights to slow the growth, #2 don't dry out much next week and are unable to get machines on the turf.
And TT predicted the other areas of the sound very well, so it looks like you BOTH WON!
I like you both, but I hope Snowwiz is the winner when he says lows of 20-25 degrees! LETS SLOW DOWN THAT GRASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If we don't slow it down, my crew and I are in big trouble because it is now to wet to mow much. Things could get very tall if we #1 don't get below freezing for several hrs for a couple of nights to slow the growth, #2 don't dry out much next week and are unable to get machines on the turf.
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