Possible good news snow lovers in East!

[Planetsnow]

Larry Cosgrove

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

The waltz is over. It is time for ROCK and ROLL!

As a first comment, I believe that the near term forecast schemes are (grossly) underestimating the strength of the shortwave now nearing the WA Olympic Peninsula. This is a critical issue, because if the surface low is organized and following the cA/mT boundary set up by the forerunner impulse, much of the Midwest along and above Interstate 80 is in for a significant snow and ice event during the 72-96 hour time frame. However, whatever type of weather occurs in the short range will likely pale next to events on Wednesday and Thursday, when I believe the low will deepen and head along the frontal structure stretching from near the Ohio River into southern New England.

The 0z Feb 6 ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models agree on rapid intensification of the surface low upon approach to the Poconos/Catskills ranges in PA and NY. 500MB height falls are very impressive across the Northeast in general in the 96-120 hour time frame, and the passage of the upper low through S NY into ME points toward a possibly spectacular snow episode across Lower MI....extreme N IN....extreme N OH....ONT Peninsula....W, C NY....extreme W MA....VT....N, C NH....N, C ME. Note that the cold core aloft slows dramatically upon entering ME and the Maritime Provinces; the system is obviously becoming an Arctic vortex, probably of the QC/LBR variety and NOT into the Grand Banks position. This trend implies a surge of very cold air from ONT and QC through the Midwest, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard only after the precipitation exits the Northeast. I am looking for all rain along and south of the basic storm track, which takes the entire Interstate 95 corridor out of the heavy snow threat (although wrap-around or lake-related snows could reach the coastal plain above New York NY). If any measurable snows fall in the Corn Belt or Mid-Atlantic regions, it will be due to a digging follow-up impulse that drops out of MB into the trough complex. That system will be moisture-starved except for dewpoints derived from the Great Lakes, but squalls associated with the energy could be briefly heavy wherever orography and "solid streamer" influences occur.

And if you thought that was the end of interesting possibilities during the longer term, guess again. After Day 5, all signs point to an emerging split flow in the 500MB longwave pattern over North America. Arctic vortices will become established over the Aleutian Islands and QC/LBR, while the very active southern branch sets up from just north of HI into the lower Great Plains toward the Gulf Stream. With a diffuse Rex signature apparent over western and central Canada, drainage of cAk values is virtually assured across the northern half of the U.S. Look for a very moist storm to organize over the southwestern states late this week, then undercut the vast, cold ridge near the Canadian border. Eventually, the disturbance will interact with the gyre poised just above the Gulf of St. Lawrence, redeveloping off the SC coastline before taking on a northward recurvature. So after widespread heavy precipitation from the Bonneville Basin into the lower/middle Front Range, an area of moderate/heavy wet snow and some icing may develop across KS....NE....IA....MO....IL....IN....OH with locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in OK....TX....AR....LA....MS....TN....AL. If secondary cyclogenesis gets underway, then a classic winter storm could unfold from NC into New England and N Br/E QC by February 15.

This could be more exciting than the Super Bowl.

Or at least the half-time show.

[Stephanie]

We still have ALOT more winter weather ahead of us, even though my temps are going to be in the 50's today (almost as warm as Jacksonville). Looking forward to seeing what Ma Nature has planned for us.

[skywatcher]

So this storm would effect D.C. and Baltimore, right? We have been having very warm tempertaures this weekend. Many people are out in SHORTS (The daring ones). Forecasts for my area, D.C., show rain on Thursday and then showers. So there is no sign of snow for us? Can this change? The oh, so well known In-Accuweather, lol, says snow on the 19th, but is there a chance that D.C. could see some snow before then. . .snow significant snowfall?

[SnowGod]

LOL. The only reason this storm is "hyped" is because of atrocious model data. Literally. They can't get it. The UKMET and GGEM today are awfull. Great examples of overphasing and poor pattern recon. Getting plastered by the GFS, only sets the sights of a Cosgrove over the top because the GFS typically is the one overphasing at this point.

When the final numbers come in, some disappointed heads will be hanging.

[yoda]

LOL. The only reason this storm is "hyped" is because of atrocious model data. Literally. They can't get it. The UKMET and GGEM today are awfull. Great examples of overphasing and poor pattern recon. Getting plastered by the GFS, only sets the sights of a Cosgrove over the top because the GFS typically is the one overphasing at this point.

When the final numbers come in, some disappointed heads will be hanging.

Um, no. Incorrect.

[jimvb]

Also incomprehensible. What does "'hyped' because of atrocious model data" mean? Models don't hype; broadcast media hype. Which model? The GFS shows rain and some snow in the Northeast, but with much warm air in place, on the 15th. Why are GGEM and UKMET bad? What do they show? The 15th is far out. There is some sort of storm out there around that time, but the specifics can't be pinned down as yet. And what is overphasing? And yoda, why is SnowGod incorrect?

[Matt31388]

I am about to give up on a big snow here in Eastern KY.

[Lowpressure]

So this storm would effect D.C. and Baltimore, right? We have been having very warm tempertaures this weekend. Many people are out in SHORTS (The daring ones). Forecasts for my area, D.C., show rain on Thursday and then showers. So there is no sign of snow for us? Can this change? The oh, so well known In-Accuweather, lol, says snow on the 19th, but is there a chance that D.C. could see some snow before then. . .snow significant snowfall?

NWS D.C. now mentioning snow/mix Thursday into Thursday evening, and again on Sunday into Monday. Do not give up yet on snow in D.C./Baltimore. You will get at least one good snow before Feb is over and probably see two smaller events as well.
Do not let the warm air fool you!!

[skywatcher]

Thanks LowPressure Yeah, well, TWC for D.C. shows a snow shower on thursday, but w/e happend it wouldnt be a lot of snow. I am waiting for a BIG SNOW? What is the earliest that this could happen, when is the next storm arriving for the MIDATLANTIC, not New England?. . .. . next week?

[yoda]

Thanks LowPressure Yeah, well, TWC for D.C. shows a snow shower on thursday, but w/e happend it wouldnt be a lot of snow. I am waiting for a BIG SNOW? What is the earliest that this could happen, when is the next storm arriving for the MIDATLANTIC, not New England?. . .. . next week?

Correct.. sometime around the Mon-Wed timeframe... but we will see. There are many factors that are still in the air.

[krysof]

The 18z gfs shows a pretty significant storm especially for the northeast mid-atlantic areas on the evening of this Thursday. too much warm air though.

[jimvb]

I just took a look at the 12Z and 18Z GFSs. A dramatic difference. 12Z has it being weak and passing south through the Carolinas, then developing offshore. 18Z shows a significant low and precipitation in the mid atlantic, but with most of Virginia south of the 0 line suggesting rain (or freezing rain?). I say continue to monitor the models for this one. The local 4 pm forecast has no mention of this being snow, however, Richmond's forecast for this Thursday is rain; it mentioned snow earlier today but that word has vanished from the forecast.

[krysof]

you mean the 10th storm right? If you do I think it will be a rainstorm for the i-95 corridor but if it comes at night than some freezing rain would be possible.