Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #1681 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 6:41 pm

R-Dub... factually it is bogus.

It is heavily weighted by the morning's run of the GFS which was WAY WAY overdone and has already backed off to agree with the ECMWF.

The PNA monitor is just a reflection of the GFS model. If the GFS is wrong... so is the monitor.

It will be corrected by tomorrow!!

R-Dub · #1682 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 6:42 pm

Looks like NWS Portland used the "Copy and Paste"! That looks like the same exact extended forecast that they have used for that last several discussions. At least NWS Seattle uses the latest models and whatnot to to fine tune the extended for almost every discussion.

TT-SEA · #1683 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 6:44 pm

O.K... here is Seattle.

NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING COORDINATION CHAT HAVE REMOVED PRECIP THREAT OVER AREA
FRIDAY...BUT LEFT IT IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEWEST GFS
SUGGESTING FROPA EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVEL JUMPS UP
AHEAD OF FRONT ON FRIDAY...IT DROPS BACK DOWN WITH AND BEHIND FRONT
TO BELOW PASS LEVELS. THIS SHOULD GIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE
PASSES AND RESORTS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A COOL UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PACNW. A RIDGE BUILDS MON INTO TUE FOR
DECREASING PRECIP AND CLOUDS.

There is NO arctic air coming guys. I am more sure about this than the lack of lowland snow this past weekend. No arctic air next week.

R-Dub · #1684 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:10 pm

Maybe you are right TT, but I still have a feeling! I just think we will get hammered at some point soon. Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling

What if the 00z goes right back to what the other models have been trending towards (besides the 18z). Will you have any more confidence for cold weather next week.

TT-SEA · #1685 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:16 pm

Nope. Not at all.

The NCEP... the NWS offices... the ECMWF... and other model guidance suggests the arctic outbreak will occur WAY east of here. That leaves us under DEFAULT high pressure.

There is a possibility that later next week could be really warm if the tropical system north of Hawaii pulls north to a position off the West Coast and leaves us in a very mild southerly flow.

Weak system Saturday... cool Sunday and Monday... dry and warmer Tuesday through Friday of next week.

Your feeling of cold weather coming... is for March. You are right but you will have to wait at least 3 more weeks. March will be wild.

R-Dub · #1686 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:22 pm

OHHHHH 3 more weeks??? I want it NOW :cry:

I just want one more shot at a good snow/cold spell, then it can be spring! Can't wait to start wakeboarding, and girl watching at the lake once again :lol:

.............AFTER ONE MORE SHOT OF COLD! 8-)

snow_wizzard · #1687 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 8:36 pm

TT...I think you need to look at the ECMWF again...850mb temps of -12C in the NW interior by day 7...Sounds like Arctic air to me. YOU ARE WRONG!!!!!!

snow_wizzard · #1688 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 8:40 pm

Why stop at the 60s for Friday...how about 85???

Either way it is proposterous!

snow_wizzard · #1689 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 8:44 pm

No Arctic air huh. What is the pink on this map? It is just as cold here as Montana at day 7.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

This is the ECMWF. TT...is so biased against cold, that I can hardly offset him!

By the way it is already down to 39 in Covington, and falling like a rock. Some places are going below 25 for sure.

andrewr · #1690 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 8:59 pm

Anyone know if we'll stay clear tonight? All though it seems we should, there appears to be clouds coming up on the coast. http://www.komotv.com/weather/satellite_anim.asp

snow_wizzard · #1691 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:14 pm

I just want everyone to know, I am not predciting a hard core Arctic blast next week, but it is clear we will have solidly below normal temperatures. Sometimes responding to TT, makes me word things a bit too strongly.

TT is correct...history does indicate March could something to write home about. The way things are going it MAY hit earlier than that though. At any rate, average temps should be 5 - 10 degrees below normal early next week.

W13 · #1692 Postby **W13** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:22 pm

Currently 38 F and falling fast as of 6:22 PM 8-)

R-Dub · #1693 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:29 pm

Cooling down quickly here, down to 35 degrees............

2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:27:42 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 35.1
Humidity (%) 92.3
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.22
Dew Point: 33.1 ºF

snow_wizzard · #1694 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:34 pm

TT...I would like to bury the hatchet, so to speak. I just don't like how carried away I'm getting about your posts. I need to chill, as Anthony would say.

I have often thought that it would be fun to start sort of an alternative weather forecast company. I have known that I would have to have a partner that would balance out my cold bias. If there is any feasable way to start something like that, it could be fun. Can you imagine the knock down drag out battles we could have? :lol:

It's something to think about, but as of now that idea is only a dream.

TT-SEA · #1695 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:48 pm

Snow_Wizzard... no hard feelings here.

That would be fun.

I think it will get close to 60 degrees somewhere on Friday. Southerly flow ahead of a trough... 850mb temps around +5C degrees... sunshine.

Should be quite a nice day to say the least. Probably mid-50's everywhere but a few spots will approach 60 degrees.

The models are coming around to an arctic blast in the Midwest. Remember the ECMWF does not recognize the Cascade Mountains either so the cold air will not spread west so uniformly like models show now. It always works out this way... no surprise. We should account for that when looking at arctic air coming south. Sometimes the scenario allows for it to spread west like having the trough way off the coast or a deep low to pull it in. But we do not have that next week. So no arctic air.

I agree with the NWS forecast of upper 40's on Monday. It should be sunny as well. Not too different than today!!

W13 · #1696 Postby **W13** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:06 pm

Currently 36 F and still falling an average of 3-4 F an hour.

My predcition is that we will get down around 23-26 F tonight.

W13 · #1697 Postby **W13** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:06 pm

Currently 36 F and still falling an average of 3-4 F an hour.

My predcition is that we will get down around 23-26 F tonight.

TT-SEA · #1698 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:11 pm

The 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) really confirms the warmth for Friday.

At the START of the day 850mb temps are at +3C with strong southerly flow. That will mean at least +6C by the end of the day.

I think you guys are so focused on cold you miss all the signs of warmth... which happens much more frequently.

It will be one of those days that exceeds the NWS forecast by about 5-10 degrees. It has happened at least 5 times in the last month. It is the perfect scenario for blowing by the "normal" high temperature.

TT-SEA · #1699 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:14 pm

W13 - the dewpoints are in the low 30's. The temperature cannot drop below the dewpoint. So... the air will have to dry out for that to happen. Its possible but you will not continue dropping 3-4 degrees an hour.

That would put you at 0 degrees at 4 a.m. and -12 by dawn!!

R-Dub · #1700 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:21 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:TT...I would like to bury the hatchet, so to speak. I just don't like how carried away I'm getting about your posts. I need to chill, as Anthony would say.

I have often thought that it would be fun to start sort of an alternative weather forecast company. I have known that I would have to have a partner that would balance out my cold bias. If there is any feasable way to start something like that, it could be fun. Can you imagine the knock down drag out battles we could have?

It's something to think about, but as of now that idea is only a dream.

You two could have a nightly weather talk show on the radio or TV, like a point-counterpoint, or a crossfire sort of format! It could be called "The TT and Snowwiz Show" Or "The Weather Factor" Or "The arctic report with Snowwiz" Or "Arctic air....HAHA NO WAY hosted by TT" Or..............Okay I will quit now :lol:

Pacific Northwest Weather

Who is online