Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

Pretty cold tonight...already down to 36F. Like TT-SEA stated, with a relatively high dewpoint, the temperatures shouldn't drop too drastic tonight. But still cool for the beginning of February.

As for the extended, until it's Sunday morning I won't believe anything. But as of now, I tend to favor TT-SEA's analysis. Models always overexaggerate arctic air for Western Washington...do they recognize the cascade, olympic and southern British Columbia mountains?! No. That makes a big difference. I just want a strong zonal flow!!! We desperately NEED snow in the mountains. I would much rather prefer tons of snow in the mountains over arctic cold for the lowlands...that never brings much moisture.

Anthony

Hopefully 24 is better tonight. That's my favorite show...very disappointed last week.

[R-Dub]

Pretty cold tonight...already down to 36F. Like TT-SEA stated, with a relatively high dewpoint, the temperatures shouldn't drop too drastic tonight. But still cool for the beginning of February.

As for the extended, until it's Sunday morning I won't believe anything. But as of now, I tend to favor TT-SEA's analysis. Models always overexaggerate arctic air for Western Washington...do they recognize the cascade, olympic and southern British Columbia mountains?! No. That makes a big difference. I just want a strong zonal flow!!! We desperately NEED snow in the mountains. I would much rather prefer tons of snow in the mountains over arctic cold for the lowlands...that never brings much moisture.

Anthony

Hopefully 24 is better tonight. That's my favorite show...very disappointed last week.

"24" was one of my favorite shows the first couple of seasons, but I forgot to watch the first, and second ones of this season, so I knew that I would be completely lost if I tried to start watching it now! So I figured I'll buy the DVD pack when it comes out. Plus I will not have to wait to see "next weeks" episode. You don't know how frustrated I got when they would leave you on the edge of your seat, and knowing you would have to wait an entire week to see what happens. This way I can watch it more like a movie, that will be cool
That show is awesome!! Keifer Sutherland is the perfect fit on that show!

Current temp is 32.9 degrees

[snow_wizzard]

I don't know...The models are pretty emphatic that some pretty cold air is going to come in...some of it is maritime polar air, which there is nothing to block that. The GFS is hinting that a southern stream low will come very close to us early next week. If that thing gets close enough it could pull some Arctic air in because it (the Arctic air) will be so close. Right now, I am going for highs in the very low 40s for early next week. That is hugely conservative for me...basically a compromise between TT and what I am tempted to predict. That could end up being very close.

I think most of you are overestimating how difficult it is for Arctic air to get in here. I do not blame you based on the past several years. We used to get Arctic all the time. It just hasn't panned out lately. The key is getting stronger surface highs over BC and higher amplitude offshore ridging. Everything that can go wrong has, for so long now.

[andrewr]

All ready down to 31F and frost.

[R-Dub]

W13 - the dewpoints are in the low 30's. The temperature cannot drop below the dewpoint. So... the air will have to dry out for that to happen. Its possible but you will not continue dropping 3-4 degrees an hour.

That would put you at 0 degrees at 4 a.m. and -12 by dawn!!

That would stop the grass from growing
Probably kill it also with no snowcover

yeah I have a feeling after another hr or so of dropping temps, they will hold steady thoughout most of the night in the Upper 20's/to around 30. Then as daybreak happens, they will drop another 2-4 degrees.

Daybreak is typically the coldest part of the day. I have to be careful of that at the golf course!! It can be above freezing by a couple of degrees just before dawn, then VERY QUICKLY drop below the freezing mark when dawn happens. I have to anticipate this, because the "Early Bird" golfers like to go out right at daybreak, and if I let them, and it drops below freezing then we have DEAD TURF where ever they walk, or drive there cart. I consider many factors, if the temp is 32 or lower then its a no brainer, NO golfers go out until we are back above freezing by a couple degrees. But if its 33-36 degrees when I get to work (about a half hr from daybreak) I go into Oh Oh mode, and look at.......Is there any cloud cover, or fog trying to develop? That will hinder the temp from falling, also is there a breeze? That can also hold the temp steady by sturring up the atmosphere just enough. But if there are no clouds, fog, wind forming, if its dead calm and clear, then even if its above freezing by a degree or two just before daybreak I still hold the golfers at the ProShop because I know the temp is going down! (boy do I hear about it sometimes, some golfers can't stand to wait )

That is why I love my job though! Its all about the weather! In about a 20min span I have to figure out if all those factors are going to happen with the weather or not.

[snow_wizzard]

Congrats R-Dub...that is mighty nice temp for so early in the evening. My prediction of 25 for you looks good! That will slow things down a bit I would think.

[andrewr]

If you really want to stop the grass, just rent a steam roller and drive over it tomorrow morning. I'm pretty sure that would do it in.

[R-Dub]

If you really want to stop the grass, just rent a steam roller and drive over it tomorrow morning. I'm pretty sure that would do it in.

That would do it alright!!! Plus I would have a lot more time to spend on Storm2k since I would be out of a job

[TT-SEA]

Well...how about that? The 18z is showing 850mb temps dropping to -12C early next week. as the time frame narrows the GFS is getting colder. The big change is that it now progs a huge for the east. Thank goodness they will get that awful thing for a while! The longer range stuff still needs work, but things are trending better!

This quote was from Snow_Wizzard early LAST week. My point is... the models overstate cold air here in the long term. The actual 850mb temp was at -3C today.

[TT-SEA]

Here we are this week with BUILDING high pressure. The GFS will continue to trend warmer for early next week.

We have to start getting into the pattern here. Its quite obvious.

You will know when the pattern changes. There will be no doubt. It will happen in March.

[TT-SEA]

From the 18Z run today to the new 00Z run... the GFS forecasted 850mb temps for Friday went up considerably. Warmth is coming.

[R-Dub]

Looks like at hr 102 or the first part of day 5 on 00z GFS there looks to be a very intense low straight off the WA coast! Could this cause a "mountain wave" event???
Have to wait for hrs beyond that to see where it goes.

[~Brennan~]

Wow pretty talkative night on here.

Well it's down to 31 degrees here and there is still a dusting of snow on the ground... The afternoon high of 38 and no sun didn't melt much of the snow I did have from yesturday... Brian from Bham, I drove out to the valley market and was surprised to see it raining when it was snowing at my house along the lake below Geneva... I then drove up the lake louis road and the further along that I got the more snow there was. Anyways, I see no reason why everyone is so overboard about not getting some cold air in here early next week. I don't care if some of the models don't handle the terrain very well. I would easily bet money on temps below normal by a good 5-8 degrees in seattle and possible 10-15 degrees below normal in other areas as well for a couple of days. I too agree with your prediction for March TT, I don't agree with your prediction for next week though and as time rolls along I think you'll find yourself turning the other way about early next week. Also, I think you have made your statement clear that you think thursday and friday will be in the upper 50's and lower 60's... you have made it clear that that is your prediction and you think you are right... I hope you get over the spring like weather you are talking about for the end of the week because it will end after that.

[snow_wizzard]

Andrew...Frost already! That is music to my ears. I love anything that is icy. I am just a sucker for cold weather, no matter what way, shape or form. The dew point at 5:00PM was 33...that means a low in the mid to upper 20s or so. I normally figure about 6 dgrees below the 5 pm dew point for the low on a clear night, with no wind.

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... the low off the coast is going to result in warm southerly flow here. Its too far away for mountain wave activity. In fact the whole thing looks weaker and farther north with its passage on Saturday. The model QPF is much lower.

Brennan... everyone told me that last week. Yet here we are with 50's and 60's coming this week. I am sorry but Bellingham is not in my scope. It looked VERY spring-like in Seattle today. The sky and the landscape. So many new signs of spring over the weekend. The trees in the parking lot at my office went into bloom during the weekend. They were mowing the lawns around our office building today.

Next week will be a repeat. A cool start then warmer as the week moves on.

[R-Dub]

Just walked outside, and there is now what I call a "soft frost", or "wet frost" on the grass. That is what I call it when you can step on the frosty grass, and it bounces back meaning only the moisture on the outside of the grass plant is frozen while the cell walls inside the blade of grass is not. You can walk on the grass with that type of frost and not hurt it.

A good way to tell if its a hard frost is if you step on the grass, and it stays squished down, that means you just crushed the life out of it .

2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:28:47 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 32.7
Humidity (%) 99.0
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.22
Dew Point: 32.4 ºF

[TT-SEA]

Wow... look at the 00Z run of the GFS. Its killing any chance of cold next week faster than even I thought!!!!

Monday morning... 500mb heights of 558DM and 850mb temps approaching 0C. Thats WARMER than today!!

Man... you cannot deny the DRAMATIC trend away from the 12Z run. As expected.

In fact high pressure is already over us by Monday morning. A very weak system for the weekend and then back to spring. Its so obvious. You guys just love punishing yourselves.

At least I did not have to wait another 3 days to see the inevitable change in the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... the normal high in Seattle next week is 48 degrees.

You are predicting maybe 10-15 degrees below normal??? That would be 33-38 degrees for highs (in Seattle). The latest GFS would mean low to mid 50's.

I would love to wager on this one. This is easy money.

[TT-SEA]

Come on... lets just end this cold talk for next week now. It will be a much easier week for all of us and the result for next week is will be the same. Spring!!

Here is next Tuesday...

[andrewr]

I'll wager too! All you have to say this winter is warm and dry and pretty much you'll be right everytime.