Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

Winter Weather Discussion

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sertorius
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#121 Postby sertorius » Mon Feb 07, 2005 1:07 pm

Frank:

Pretty crazy indeed-Lawrence and KC are in the upper 20's-Columbia MO. 150 miles east is still in the 40's-St. Louis is still around 50!! I really think i might get something in the next 36 hours-could be the biggest of 2005-which isn't saying much!! The EURO is all over the warm up this weekend-the GFS is different-who knows-got to follow the EURO, but interesting to note, the EURO at 10 is showing quite a cold front for the central Plains as does the GFS-winter may have one more 2 week push!!! It will be tornado season before you know it!! Winter is for sure winding down.
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#122 Postby sertorius » Mon Feb 07, 2005 9:35 pm

Well, this event may actually happen. The 0z NAM still gives me between 1/4 to a 1/2 inch of precip. and the whole column is below freezing for the whole event. Granted, right now on radar the systems looks just horrible, but it looks as though the storm picks up some steam as comes out of the Rockies and taps the mositure that is around here. Is this a huge storm-no-not wrapped or anything like that, but, for a winter that has seen only 2 snow events (both with temps. above freezing during the event) this is pretty darned exciting. I am still going for 3 inches, but would not be surprised if we got 4 or possibly 5. My idea is for Lawrence and KC Metro to see 3 inches-that will cause quite a mess here!! Ya know, snow is snow and 3 inches can make a pretty good snow fort!!!!

The storm for this weekend and early next week will be all rain as the cold air stays well north of me. Hopefully some more cold air can come down and we can squeeze out one more snow event but who knows. The 10 day Euro does show it getting colder after Monday of next week.
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#123 Postby sertorius » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:08 pm

Quick update:

The NWS out of Topeka has just issued winter weather advisory for this area thru mid night tomorrow night. Going for about 2-3 inches here with a period of sleet and fr. drizzle before. Should be interesting drive into work tomorrow!!!!
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#124 Postby simplykristi » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:19 pm

Mike Thompson, the met for WDAF here in KC, is forecasting 4 to 8 inches here. NWS calls for 2 to 5 inches. We shall see.

Kristi
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#125 Postby sertorius » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:23 pm

Simplykristi:

The new model runs this evening have kind of thrown more moisture up here than earlier runs-I would not be surprised to see the NWS in Topeka come more in line with KC and go for 2-4 or possibly 5. I think it will most all be snow-this is our best shot at a good snow since November-I sure hope it holds together!!! Looking at national radar, you can see the precip starting to form to our south and west-it is almost game time!!!!
Oh, 4-8 would be a huge storm for this area since we have been so snow starved-I hope poor Mike doesn't get bit again-he really has bad luck going for the higher amounts!!!
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#126 Postby simplykristi » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:27 pm

We will know Wed. AM what the total is. :) I might just have to get my camera out tomorrow night. :)

Kristi
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#127 Postby amawea » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:58 pm

Well Sertorius, Joe Bastardi is saying 6 inches 100 miles either side of a line from Ponca City Ok. to St Joseph, Missouri. Hope you get the snow you've been searching so hard for. If you do please send some down here along the Ar/Mo border before winters done.
amawea
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#128 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 6:51 am

amawea:

I'll try to send you some!! But winter is not done yet!! With the STJ being active our whole area will see rain but there are also chances of some winter precip. for all of us the next week or two-all depends on how much cold air gets involved!!! This weekend will be rain, but the 7 day and beyond EURO is hinting at something-time will tell.
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#129 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 6:59 am

Update: The NWS has upped my potential to 3-6 inches and KC is in a heavey snow warning expecting 4-7 inches-if this all verifies, we could see our biggest winter storm since last Feb. as we will be below 32 the whole event. A couple of points:

1. The radar currently shows a pretty good band of snow in Central Kansas heading this way. I would not be surprised if this does not expand as time goes on and there is some more developing in the south west. If this band does not expand or nothing develops behind it, then this area may only get 2-3 inches-we shall see.

2. The 06z NAM is much less impressive than the 0z NAM, but that has happened every run for the past 2 days-the 06Z GFS is much stronger. But, it is now time to start to looking at radar and leave the models alone!!!

3. Look to have rain from the system this weekend-may start out as some fr. rain then change to rain. However, the 0Z Euro this morning does show a low (1010 MB) in Northern Oklahoma with temps. dropping here for Monday. Will be interesting to keep an eye on that-the GFS has been hinting at something for 7 days-we shall see. At least the next 7 days will not be cloudless with temps. in the 50's!!!

Heavey Snow warning!!!! Have not seen one of those in a long time that was issued before the event started!!!
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#130 Postby frankthetank » Tue Feb 08, 2005 9:54 am

Good luck with the snow. Hopefully its underforecasted in you get a solid foot or more :)

I'm starting to get scared. Arctic air looks like it wants to invade the northern states @ around 144-168hrs. Subzero temps are still very normal in Feb/March...:(
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#131 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 10:47 am

Frank:

I really think this is going to happen!! The 12Z NAM still looks good as does the radar!! 4-5 inches is a distinct possibility and for here, that is a significant snow!! This weekend looks warmer (no 60's) with a chance of fr. rain to start out with. Next Tueday really looks interesting via the EURO with colder temps. and a low comming out of Colorado-will have to keep an eye on it-but for now, i have my first true winter storm to look at and I'm home today with a sick 2 year old!! Hopefully when he naps, I can update things!! By the way, 4 weeks from now, the warm up will begin in earnest and stay that way.
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#132 Postby snoopj » Tue Feb 08, 2005 10:50 am

Hee hee.

Happy Heavy Snow Warning!

And I just so happen to be in Pittsburgh, instead of KC at the moment. Nuts....

--snoopj
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#133 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:01 am

snoopj:

I would rather be in Pitt. over all-this is a once a winter deal and I still would not be surprised if didn't fizzle out in the end-happens here all the time-but, it looks better than it did 3 days ago!!!
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#134 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:48 pm

Quick Update:

Snow is now flying in Lawrence-snowing at a pretty good clip-radar looks pretty darned good. NWS in KC is calling for the possibility of thundersnow this evening. Awesome outside-just awesome-if it all pans out, our biggest winter storm of the season. No more model looks for this-radar time!!!
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#135 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:57 pm

Snowing pretty hard currently-NWS is telling people not to travel tonight after they get home from work-again, still calling for Thundersnow as the storm really winds itslef up this evening and intensifies (well, not east coast intensify but central plains intensify). Awesome day!!! Best snow event (even if not as much as November, that snow was gone in 12 hours-this one will last at least 36!!!) of the winter season.
One other note: there is a dry slot developing but it looks to stay to the North and West of me. Quite a good little snow maker!!! I'll keep boring you with updates-currently about an inch-KC supp. to get some 1 and half inch per hour snow rates tonight!!! We shall see!!!
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#136 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 3:26 pm

One more quick update: snowing pretty hard here currently-on my way out to do a snow bike ride with my 5 year old!! Can't wait!! Still looking to get about 5 inches :D Best snow of the year!!! This is awesome!! On a weather note: Some areas are expected to get 1-2 inch snow fall rates an hour this evening. I look to have snow for about 3-5 more hours before it tapers off-sitting at about 2 inches right now. Roads are a mess!!!!
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#137 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 5:38 pm

The snow is winding down here now-one more band is trying to develop to the South West, but it doesn't look to good. I have close to 3 inches and I may get 4 if I'm lucky-but will prob. stay at 3. Based on the radar, and I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but it looks to me like this area got dry slotted a little bit in the past hour or so. Most of the moisture has gone North and I'd say now that Omaha and Western Iowa may end up with more than me based on current radar (Not sure how much they already have) Onto next week-looks to get real cold on Tuesday. Dry slots-gets this area all the time-if not that then warm air aloft!! Some day, we will get what the mets think and it will all come together. However, as snow starved as I have been this year, I'll take this and smile :D :D :D !!!
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#138 Postby David » Tue Feb 08, 2005 6:10 pm

I have 4.

-David
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#139 Postby simplykristi » Tue Feb 08, 2005 7:16 pm

I just got home a little bit ago from work. I work in downtown KCMO. It took me just under 90 mins. to get home to the SE part of the metro. Half of that time was just trying to get out of downtown KCMO. I say two inches here at most.

Kristi
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#140 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 08, 2005 9:51 pm

SimplyKristi:

I was lucky I did not have to go into work today-the drive back to Lawrence would have taken me 2 hours!!!! All for a 3 inch snow!! Poor Mike Thompson-he has a terrible time with winter weather. I really feel for him and for the NWS service-I mean this morning things looked really good, but by 2:00 you could see on radar the dry slot moving in-the rain in Joplin was what we were supp. to have presently which if that had come into the area, we would have gotten the 4-7 predicted. I tell ya, forecasting snow here has to be in the top 3 of toughest areas in the country. 10 mile track difference and you have egg on your face-amazing we average 22 inches a year to be honest!!!
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