"WET, WET, WET!" God HELP us!

[azsnowman]

This next system poised to strike Thursday night into Saturday sounds BAD, I mean "REALLY BAD!" We've got 4" of new snow on the ground as of this morning, the snow is WET and NOW 2-3" of "RAIN" on TOP of it! The ground is SOOOOOO saturated from all the systems we've had this winter, this system has the potential of being a MAJOR disaster for ALL of Az........God help us I know we need the moisture but....this is *kinda* getting out of HAND here, now "if" this system was all SNOW, it would be different but RAIN?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE A HEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A WARM AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE 2 - 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA... MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE.

Dennis

[Aquawind]

Ohh Geesh you Zona people to now. Dang.. I remember reading many a complaints of the dry weather and vegatation last year and now look how the coin has flipped.. Been there.

From Drought comes Floods.. Mother Nature doing here balancing act again. Stay safe! That dang water is a killer!

Paul

[cycloneye]

And I also remember last year Dennis talking about the fires in that region.

[W13]

Wow, the weather is really getting out of hand down there in Arizona. Stay safe!

[aveosmth]

Now it looks like all of Southern California, and Arizona will be affected by this storm. Dennis, the last couple of runs of the GFS has moved some of the really heavy moisture more towards SoCal and away from you. Hopefully, this trend will continue.

[Aslkahuna]

Snow levels are not going to drop below 7000 feet with this one since it's tropical moisture. I don't know about Dennis, but my total accumulated rainfall deficit since 1996 is around 36 inches so Ihave a LONG way to go to say that the Drought is over. The deficit amounts to two years rainfall for me at the house. As far as where the heaviest rain will fall, the GFS hints that it will be further west but not the Canadian, NAM and NOGAPS so we will just have to wait and see.

Steve

[azskyman]

I've measured near 23" Steve (3, 10, and 10) the last three years here in north Phoenix. I did not take accurate measurements annually prior to that time, though.

I'm sitting at 2.87" through the first six weeks of 2005...so any additional rainfall will give us a good jump on spring.

Speaking of rainfall, I've been invited to consider helping to develop a dense observer network in the metro areas of Arizona (Tucson and Phoenix for the most part) to both a)have fun observing and b)give some additional ground truth to the variation of rainfall over relatively short distances.

A similar network is in place in the metro areas of Colorado. The goal would be to have a rain gauge and observer every 1 square mile. A goal, mind you, not an absolute requirement.

Probably doable here in Phoenix over time.

Quite a project for someone....so at this point I am only "considering" it. Info posted as near real time data on a website.

Would like to have it set up by Thursday night this week for this next big storm!!!

[Stephanie]

It's just a shame that it has to be so much at once.

[Skywatch_NC]

Gee...talk about EXTREMES on the spectrum...TOO much snow and/or rain...severe drought and firestorms!!

Eric

[MGC]

From famine to feast. I'd take all the water I could get. In your situation you never know if this rainy period you are in is just a temporary situation between another drought period. Get them reservoirs back to capacity.....MGC

[azsnowman]

Here's the latest.....doesn't sound too good does it?

THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND PICK UP A GOOD FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AZ BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN AZ BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE COPIOUS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING WITH UP TO 2 INCHES PROGGED BY THE GFS IN YAVAPAI COUNTY BY 5 PM FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THIS IS MORE LIKE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AS DYNAMICS LACKING AND OROGRAPHC FLOW WEAK UP UNTIL THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEPTH OF SATURATION PROGGED IS IMPRESSIVE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE EARLY STAGES OF THE STORM. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL BE NEAR 8500 FEET FRIDAY...HEAVY PRECIP AND MELTING SNOW WOULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE RIM AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL ADVECT THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA PROVIDING THE DYNAMICS...WHICH...ALONG WITH IMPROVING OROGRAPHIC FLOW AROUND 35 KTS...MAKE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS (UP TO .5 INCH/6 HOURS) SEEM REASONABLE. MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AT THEIR LOWEST SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. PRECIP SHOULD END OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[azsnowman]

[quote="azsnowman"]Here's the latest.....doesn't sound too good does it?
...THE DEPTH OF SATURATION PROGGED IS IMPRESSIVE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE EARLY STAGES OF THE STORM. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL BE NEAR 8500 FEET FRIDAY...HEAVY PRECIP AND MELTING SNOW WOULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE RIM AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.

Especially this part!

Dennis

[TexasSam]

This seems a bit different than your information, and even worse!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
447 PM MST TUE FEB 8 2005

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-091200-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK/JTNP/-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
447 PM MST (347 PM PST) TUE FEB 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES...POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT..

A LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DRAW
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INCLUDE 1 AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY..
INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AND THE AREA NEAR PARKER
ARIZONA...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. BECAUSE OF THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS
AIRMASS...SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN HIGH...AROUND 9 THOUSAND
FEET.

and more...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 900 PM MST TUE FEB 8 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...A VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL YIELD INCREASING SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MUCH ANTICIPATED LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE BAJA COAST...AND LIFT COPIUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...CONTINUED TO SLOWLY EVOLVE THIS EVENING (03Z). ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WERE SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. THE GFS MODEL ... IN GENERAL... IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MOVING TONS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ONLY NUANCE... IS THAT EACH MODEL RUN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TIMING...AND WHERE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE... THE 18Z GFS MODEL RUN DELAYED THE ONSET OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UNTIL VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ... WITH ITS HEAVY PRECIP INITIALLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST CA... SPREADING LATER INTO CENTRAL AZ BY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. AGAIN...DESPITE SLIGHT VARIANCES IN MODEL TIMING... THE GENERAL IDEA FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ REMAINS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WAS ISSUED EARLIER...INCLUDING A STAB AT STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS BASED ON FORECAST 850/700 MB DEWPOINTS...LOW LEVEL WIND VALUES...700 MB TEMPERATURES...AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

[azsnowman]

It appears the models have NO IDEA as to what this system is doing, from this mornings NAFD, it appears the system is going to take more a southerly route, which in my book, is O'TAY Buckwheat!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS65 KFGZ 091031 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 315 AM MST WED FEB 09 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY ...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...A WARM AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL OFF THE BAJA COAST LINE. GFS IS SHOWING A 100 KT JET IN VICINITY OF OF A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR 20N AND 120W. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A DEEP POOL OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD A HEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS TRENDS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. WE HAD TO REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE PRECIP CHC`S FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS 00Z WEDNESDAY MODEL RUN IS TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER THAN TUESDAY 00Z...INSTEAD OF 2-3 INCHES OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA AND PORTIONS OF APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...AMOUNTS NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FILLING MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND ITS TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SO THAT THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT IS FOCUSED MORE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...FOR NEXT WEEK A SPLIT FLOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLOUDIER AND COOLER WEATHER WITH DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCE COULD COME THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT IS TO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH WAVE WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA...SO FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED DRY.