Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

[sertorius]

Final thoughts for the "snow" of 2-8-05 for Lawrence and Kansas City. My final total is 3 1/2 inches and my temp. is now 20 degrees-it is truly a winter night here in Lawrence. What happened: We got dry sloted-pure and simple. The storm just did not come together as was thought this morning. The rain in Joplin, Mo. was what was thought would be the final big push tonight, but it just stayed south. Not a rare occurence for this area at all. To be sure some of my earlier posts today were quite enthusiastic, I had it in the small logical part of my brain, that we were going to top out at 3-4 inches. When I heard this morning that the storm was going to come together over the top of us and had not formed as of yet, I thought that is a recipie for desaster-very rarely in the past 10 years has a storm come together over the top of us-it needs to be formed and chugging along. Also, by 2:00 p.m. you could see the dry slot taking shape and heading this way. If I sound a little dissapointed, I am-I bought the hype this morning and really thought it was going to happen knowing full well I was setting myself up. I really do believe this was one of our last best chances-not because i think we are going to be in the 50's and 60's the rest of the winter (the 7 day Euro says we will be brutally cold by next Tuesday and stay that way thru at least Friday) but because we had the cold air and a low pressure comming out of the 4 corners-everything was there accept a decent short wave. We might have cold in place, but not have the lift via a low or like this weekend, we will get the moisture etc. but it will be 55 degrees. This event had the all the ingredients accept 1-that has not happened this winter. However, all that aside, I am quite happy-we have 3 1/2 inches of snow-people here got a taste of winter and freaked-most importantly, I got to spend 3 hours pulling my 5 year old on his sled behind my bike Awesome indeed!!!!!

On a different note, like I stated in another post: I really feel for the mets and NWS here-they have had quite the bad run of luck the past 5-6 years on winter storms-last years 16 incher turned into 1 inch of sleet-3 days later a 1 inch nothing became a 7 inch dumb-now this-heavey snow warning-4-8 inches etc. for a 2-3 inch event. They have a tough job no doubt and they do an excellent one at that-I seriously think forecasting a snow strom here has to be in the top 5 in difficulty for the whole US. The Topeka NWS did a very good job actually.

A quick look ahead: This weekend still looks like rain and temps. in the low 50's. Tuesday looks to be a transition day into some truly arctic air if the EURO is right-it has been onto this for about 3 days. the GFS was onto it on the 0Z and 12Z runs, but of course looses it on the 18Z-would not be surprised to see the 0z bring it back. Question is: can we get the STJ to thros something up this far North with that Arctic air in place??? Something to watch. But man, we had so many players on the field today-one just stayed in bed that's all. have a great night and sorry this is so long but I just wanted to say a few things. Some day, it will come together and this area will get hit with a major snow storm-going on the reactions from todays 3 incher, the whole area will go absolutely nuts and prob. shut down!!!! (Kidding-well only a little)

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Just a Funny Tease, St. Louis, Mo will get slammed by your so called second push. Could give me a surprise 2-4 inches by the time things dry up tomorrow afternoon. Now only if my temperatures could drop to freezing My temp is now 36F and it's been going up .2 every five minutes. Probably a sign of the trough about to work through with southwesterly winds. So start really dropping a degree every 30 mintues by the time it comes through after midnight. Would be nice to get some 2-4 inches. It ain't much, but I'll take it. I'll just have to see when I wake up. Maybe I'll get a delay off school because of the ice that falls before changing to school.

[simplykristi]

Actually it split... The rain to our south and the heavier snow to our north and west.

Kristi

[simplykristi]

I have no cnfidence in the forecasting as far as winter weather here goes. I can't wait for spring and t-storms. I love a good non-damaging thunderstorm.

Kristi

[sertorius]

SimplyKristi:

Yea it did split-like it does so many times: the dreaded dry slot split it. I like thunder storms as well, but I just love a good winter event. prob. beacuse they are tough to come by here. Maybe we can squeeze one more out later, but it just doesn't look all that great as of now. Maybe next week if the cold air actually comes. The mets here just have a tough time-they have to forecast with the data given them becasue people would really freak if they went for 3 and we got 10!! I am serious when i say that someday it will all come together!!

[frankthetank]

I"m kind of glad, but our 2 inch forecasted snow never did come about...it seems that all the snow stayed south over Iowa...

3.5in is a decent number (thats pretty typical around here when clippers move through). The only problem is that yours melts the next day(?) vs. here, where it stays until the next 3incher and builds a snowpack (sometimes!).

The 168hr Euro is a nightmare for me. I am sooooooooo sick of cold weather. I've made some serious thought of moving (Colorado or OR) because of it! Probably not this year, however. I really hope this is progressive and is followed by a warmup. I'm not able to see what the 10day Euro is showing.

Once we get into March, its only a matter of time

[sertorius]

Frank:

Home with 2 sick kids today and both "resting" so I figured I'd check out the boards. Beats trying to prepare a lecture on 19th century Liberalism and Nationalism and then Marxism!! This snow will actually last till Friday-we will loose alot tomorrow but there will be some left on Friday then by by!! There are several occasions where a snow or ice evnet will last a week or so on the ground and in a true central plains winter, it can last a month or more. But not this winter!! Temps. today will barely hit 30 then 37 tomorrow 40's Friday then 50's by Saturday. Next week does look to be much colder for here, but nothing like you will prob. see, but as with much this winter, we will be done with it in 3 days. if nothing forms next week with the cold air (i.e. stj) then our winter is in the closing stages. Could see more snow, but it is getting hard to see a true winter event here-not that they don't happen-we do see big snows in March had 45 inches one March-but for this winter with this pattern, I'd say we are getting close to being done. Anyways, I'm going to our cabin we have on a small lake about 10 miles outside of Lawrence (not Clinton resivoir) and getting my fishing poles and tackle ready to go!!!! With the warm temps. should be some good crappie fishing!!!

[simplykristi]

We just got rid of a pile of snow and ice from January this past weekend. It had been shoveled into a pile back in January and it was washed away with the rain Sunday.

I don't think winter is quite over yet.

Kristi

[sertorius]

Simplykristi:

You are very right-winter is not over and next week will let us know that!!!! Again, I'm not trying to be like those who say winter is dead becasue of 3-4 warm days. Just based on the pattern and the trough in the east, we are going to be very similar to the end of Jan. when it was very bland here. I'm just not sure it will switch back in time. I hope I am wrong and will be watching next week with keen interest-I have a retreat with 45 students in Atchison next week-wonder if I will get stuck?? Next week could be very interesting-both the EURO and GFS hint at a strong cold front and some energy comming out of the south west-how it all plays out is anyone's guess now-but at least something is there.

[frankthetank]

I'm 12.6f above normal for the month so far vs. Lawrence, KS 1.9F.

Looking @ the models it shows a nice stretch of cold next week, but the GFS (atleast yesterday) seemed to move it through pretty quickly( normal for this year).

I'm looking @ 33F today and then 40+ until Monday/Tuesday. I woke up to 1F this morning

[sertorius]

Frank:

We really haven't been all that warm when you look at it-of course if you listen to me, it seems like we have been in the 50'sd for 3 months!!! LOL!! To be honest, we have had a pretty cold winter over all with a few warm periods in between and alot of days cloudy and 35-40 degree days. Next week will prob. knock us down some what again, but as you said this looks to exit quickly. I still think next week after Tuesday could be interesting (even Sunday could be-the euro tries to bring a little cold air in-not much) all the way thru Saturday-who knows-something to watch!! Hey, March is comming-College Basketball madness and the beginning of fishing!!!!

[simplykristi]

We have to watch out for bad weather in March too. One day we could be warm and the next day dealing with bad weather. march is very changeable.

I can't wait for March madness!!

Kristi

[sertorius]

Simplykristi:

March can def. be a crazy month-maybe we can get the big one then. I just know that sometime in the next few years, global warming aside!!, we are going to get a big snow-it has been too long. I am also excited about Basketball in March and also incred. nervous about it-the tournament is such a role of the dice!!!!

[frankthetank]

[sertorius]

Frank:

Great pick-thanks!! That will look alot different today-we lost most of the snow yesterday and tody with our high getting close to 50 it will all be gone!!! It was pretty here though the past few days!!!

Next week still looks interesting-the EURO, GFS, and MRF 0z runs today still show an intrusion of colder air into this area with a low pressure sustem cutting across the southern plains. The EURO keeps delaying the arrival with it now getting here untill Thursday-GFS and MRF still show it by Tuesday. The GFS and MRF show afairly good precip shield over us on Tuesday/Wed. What does this mean: absolutely nothing!!!! The GFS and MRF will go back and forth several hundred times-even the EURO is having problems setteling on a solution. I think the main idea is that it will get colder again next week and if the 10 day EURO is correct, we could pretty darned chilly by Next Monday (President's Day). Interesting to watch-the next few days Today-Monday will be warm with chances of rain-already the high clouds are streaming into Southern Kansas. One other interesting note: The PNA as of today is forecasted to rise to about 1-1.5 thru March 1st with the NAO going to about -1- -2. Those are not bad numbers for this area-if the ridge in the west would set up further west i.e. not over the inter mountain west, we could still get some action-what that translates into is anybody's guess, but the averages of those 2 indicees are pretty good for this area seeing something-not perfect but better than a plus 4 PNA that's for sure!!!!

[frankthetank]

I didn't realize Kansas had so many lakes...which one has the hot hand?

Whats the deal with the Euro...Now it has the cold coming in for pretty much one day and then gone!! Good for a cold hater like me, but bad because of the constant changes its been making...That high coming over the ND/MT border is a little weaker too.



the last run i saw had a low going just north of Chicago, now i don't see it??!

[sertorius]

Frank:
About the lakes: From 1930-1988, they built several large resivoirs from Southern Missouri all the way to North East Kansas. Yhe most famous was and still is Lake of the Ozarks which is enormous (more shore line milage than Lake Michigan-also, only lake you build cabins right on the lake-there are 20 million doallar homes on it now-you need a 36 foot boat to be on the main channel on summer weekends!!) Around here, they build 5 resivoirs to controll flooding in Kansas City-they don't say that, but that is what they do-the ones around me Perry, Clinton, Pamona, and Melvern (there are 6-7 further west for water retention purposes and one just south of me which is a cool lake for the wolf creek nulear power plant-awesome small mouth bass fishing there in the winter) are to controll water on the Kansas River which runs into the Missouri in Kansas City. All are very good Crappie, Walleye, Whitebass, andf Channel Catfish lakes. The Black Bass do not do well because they are so wind swept it is hard to get good stands of cover etc. We have a cabin on 300 acer lake 10 miles outside of Lawrence that was a wpa lake in the 1930's that is rated as the best Black Bass fishing lakes in the state-unfort. it was a secret for about 5 years (they dropped the lake 6' to fix the dam-an 18 inch thunderstorm went thru there and the overflow began to eat the dam out when it filled back up, with all the vegitations etc., the lake just exploded-best shad population I have ever seen and the Black Bass went crazy) now every Tom, Dick and Harry know about it and I have 20 bass boats almost daily on a 300 acer lake (no motar limit on it)-but I still have spots that I have found-humps etc. that they don't know about and I still catch alot of nice bass!!! Sorry for the digression, but like winter weather, fishing and lakes get me going!! Prob. the best places to fish here for any fish, are the farm ponds and strip pits!!

The Euro: It has delayed the cold for here further out every run-now it has it for Thursday-the 0z and 06z gfs is backing off as well-you will get some of it, but I really htink this is going to be east coast deal and esp. me but even you will be out pretty quick. This weekend is just a total waste of great moisture for Feb. I could see an inch of rain Saturday and Sunday which puts us about 3 inches above normal for this year-that is amazing-3 inches above normal precip. since Jan. 1st and I only have 5 inches of snow and 1/2 inch of ice to show for it-and we have barely been above normal temp. wise-talk about bad timming!!!!

[frankthetank]

I've seen the Lake of the Ozarks (i think!). I went down to Bass Pro Shops in MO a few years back. I still remember because there was a solid snowpack here and when i was down there, it was almost 70f and we had shorts on!!!

I'm a big fisherman ...my boat (i'm a digicam photo freak!)


Around here its trolling in the spring/early summer(walleyes) ...then sunfish on the lake (its actually just the Miss River pool right before Lock&Dam) using fly rods. Then around July its crappies in deep water using tube jigs. After that its hit and miss (water temps usually are close to 80f by then) catching mostly smallmouth on the rocks and largemouth in the weeds.

Last spring was the best fishing i've ever experienced outside of Canada for Walleyes. Nothing huge (24inch tops) but the numbers of 15inch+ fish was tremendous. I usually throw everything back, but a lot of the guys i fish with keep them, so i think they might have been fished out to some extent. It is a huge river system, so maybe new fish will move in? I'm going out ice fishing this weekend for sunfish/crappies. Where we go its all sight fishing (its awesome watching a 10+inch crappie open up his mouth to inhale a waxie).

I get so pumped this time of the year to get the boat out, and then by July i hardly go on the water. Last years rains were annoying and the water temps never did get very high. Those lakes down there must boil by July!

Want to talk about boat traffic! The Mississppi on a weekend is almost suicidal in my boat. I've had the ...prop...out of the water hitting waves (its not a smooth ride).... I'll see if i can dig up some water pics. There was a boat docked last year that was wider then my boat is long (its over 16ft). Thats what the ocean is for!

Heres hoping for an early dry spring!

[sertorius]

Frank:

Thanks for the pic. That boat is awesome-makes me wish I was on the lake right now!!!! It will be fishing season before you know it-Actually, late Feb. and early March can offer some great fishing on a warm sunny day-esp. on farm ponds. By the way, both the EURO and GFS are now backing off the cold for next week-we shall see!!

[frankthetank]

Thanks. Still looking for that elusive blow torch, but it looks like i'll have to wait (today was 46f perfect degrees). Tomorrow and Sunday should be about the same.

All in all this winter has been on the mild/avg precip side of things...