Bermuda High may steer hurricanes toward Florida again

[Zadok]

By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer
Posted February 9 2005

The strong high-pressure ridge that steered four hurricanes toward Florida last summer is still out there -- and could direct more storms our way this year.

"Right now, the pattern is very similar to what we had last year," hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. "So people should plan on this being another above-average season."

The ridge has already caused Palm Beach County to have its wettest month ever in September -- followed by the driest four-month period ever, from October through January. The result: Palm Beach and Broward counties are drying out, increasing fire danger.

Called the Bermuda High because it is centered over the small island, the ridge last year prevented hurricanes from turning north in the Atlantic, forcing them on a westerly track toward Florida.

Unless it breaks apart in the next few months, and it's unknown whether it will, the upcoming hurricane season, which starts June 1, again could be tense, forecasters said. In addition to Florida, the pressure ridge creates a threat for the rest of the lower U.S. coast.

Stewart emphasized it is extremely unlikely that four hurricanes will again batter Florida, as Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne did last year. Experts say that kind of catastrophe happens on average once every 100 to 200 years.

However, because the Atlantic basin has been in an active era since 1995, it would not be unusual to see two intense systems slam the state, Stewart said.

In an active era, warm water produces more major hurricanes than normal.

Historically, about a third of all major hurricanes, with winds greater than 110 mph, make U.S. landfall. Yet until 2004, only three had done so from 1995 to 2003, even though 32 major systems developed in the same period.

That luck ran out last year, and the odds don't look good this year, Stewart said. Still, he said, residents should not get caught up in seasonal forecasts but instead should prepare as though one powerful storm could hit.

"Our emphasis through the years has been: Be prepared because you can get an Andrew-type storm even in a quiet year, with devastating results," he said, referring to Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 system that tore apart south Miami-Dade County in 1992.

Because the Bermuda High ridge directed hurricanes Frances and Jeanne toward the south-central Florida coast, Palm Beach County saw 29.4 inches of rain in September, the wettest month ever in the county. That broke the previous monthly record of 27.81 inches, set in October 1910, according to meteorologist Jim Lushine, of the National Weather Service west of Miami.

Then, as cold fronts descended from the north, the ridge acted to weaken and deplete the county of rain, he said. The result: In October, November, December and January, a total of 4.83 inches of rain fell.

That broke the previous low record of 5.29 inches of rain, set in the same four-month period in 1970-71. It also was more than 13 inches below normal for the time period.

Why the ridge most dehydrated Palm Beach County is unknown -- and unusual because North Florida and even Miami-Dade County have seen their fair share of rain, Lushine said. Broward County also was dry in the past four months, though no records were broken.

"It's kind of strange," Lushine said. "There's a reason for it, but we don't know what it is."

The dry conditions have not yet caused water supply problems, officials said. So much rain fell in September that when averaged out, the past five months still saw 8.2 inches more rain than normal.

Meanwhile, another wave of cold air is predicted to roll over South Florida on Thursday night.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[Aquawind]

Thanks for posting that Zodak.. That might explain why Boca was asking about the dry weather and everyone said no big deal...It sure as heck has been dry for a very small area..

[Scorpion]

Hopefully all the dryness centered on Palm Beach County isn't a precursor of things to come .

[hurricanetrack]

If May is super dry for Florida- then look out come August/September!

Oh- also, the cool water tongue is back off of South America- so no El Nino to speak of this year either.

All in all, it's not looking good once again for somebody!

Buy those blue tarps now- you're gonna need them!

[T'Bonz]

Hi guys. Long time no post.

You guys got me through last season. My brother popped by and gave me this news, so I knew where to go to read the story!

All I have to say is

[Anonymous]

Im not trying to be too skeptical but how can you go by a winter time position of the bermuda high and say Fla look out--Summer is what counts right? Doesnt the bermuda high always retrograde during the winter and increase in the summer? Cant we wait till at least June before we start sounding the alarms? Last summer, there was topics that warned fla and even stated that the mets in fla were "rushing to completion" their housing construction to prepare for the Cape Verde Season...Their fears came very true!! Is this idea pretty legit for so early in the season--is this our early warning for the 2005 season? I feel de ja vu from last year with official warnings about the bermuda high----but they are much earlier! How accurate will this prove to be?!?!

[canegrl04]

Holy crap What a lousy time to be a Floridian.I sure hope 2005 isn't a repeat of last season.

[vbhoutex]

You answered your own question if it verifies JEK.

Doesnt the bermuda high always retrograde during the winter and increase in the summer?

Let's presume this verifies. Then it would put Florida and areas further West in jeapordy since an increasing Bermuda high would build further West.

[KatDaddy]

..........points further W. That is ominious VB. I am dreading this upcoming hurricane season. I know many of us do not focus on stats and hurricanes do not have memories but I believe stats do hold some truth overtime.

Several years ago I did some quick research anf found the Upper Texas Coast is directly effected by a major hurricane on the average 16 years.
The longest timespan was Carla in 61 to Alicia in 83.......22 years. Well this is 2005 and guess how long its been since Alicia......22 years. On the other hand one could argue Carla was not an Upper TX Coast storm since it made landfall well to the SW. Tides of 15-20 ft, winds gusting to 112MPH at Galveston and flooding rains count as a direct affect. Brazoria and Matagorda Counties along the Upper TX Coast took a beating from Carla.......120-150MPH winds.

Thus the I am more concerned this hurricane season than previously. As Mark stated get the blue tarps ready. I think the NW and N GOM may be this years target area. I truely hope this is not the case and the Upper TX Coast has another 22 years without a major hurricane.

[rainydaze]

Yikes, I hope we can afford to get hurricane shutters before this summer. Putting up and taking down plywood is awful..... especially when we had to do it twice in 3 weeks!

I really hope we don't get another hurricane this year. It's such a terrible mess, and so disorienting to your life.....and no A/C is the worst! It's the most unrestfull, fitfull, sleepless nights I've ever had. And I only had to do it a few nights before my in-laws go their electric back and I stayed at their house. Some people had to tough it out for up to two weeks.

[Scorpion]

Yeah, and to think all that occured under minimal hurricane conditions. If a Cat 3 or higher comes through forget it. No power for weeks.

[KatDaddy]

Something I do not want to experience. My family was lucky during Alicia.....we never lost power. But my best friend in the same neighborhood lost power for two weeks! I was a freshman in highschool and remember it like yesterday....22 years ago. With a 6 month old who be nearly 1 during the hurricane season it would be very very rough. I will be sending the wife and baby N to her brothers in Dallas should the Upper TX Coast become a target.

[vbhoutex]

Another thing that I have watched through the years and have discussed with KOW a little is the way fronts coming our way are oriented before season starts. He brought it up during a conversation about the upcoming season. Basically, in years when the fronts coming down seem to be oriented more E-W along the Gulf Coast as opposed to oriented NE-SW the Western Gulf seems to be more at risk or actually has more storms come its way. This has been the case this year with the bulk of the fronts coming into the W GOM area more on an E-W orientation with the "core" of the cold off to our East. This was not the case last year and we had a very calm year in the W GOM. I would be interested if anyone else has noticed this or even if you feel it is bunk. I can't point out any research to back it up past what I have noticed over my 48 years on the Gulf Coast. Past that with El Nino gone for all intents and purposes we will have a lot of moisture feed into our area anyway from the STJ. Just some thoughts to chew on as we approach another hurricane season.
We were without power for 7 days after Alicia and we had a 4 yr old and an 8 month old when she hit.

[KatDaddy]

Seems logical to me with the front orientation. Lomg term pattern recognition does have some bearing.....not to sound like Joe B.

Wow an 8 month old......sure it was a little stressfull to say the least.

If we are a target this upcoming season us Houston-Galveston poster will need to pull together.

[cajungal]

If you think that is bad, try 8 days without power in the sweltring humid heat of southeast Louisiana in August. That is what we experience after Andrew. And try sleeping in Sears waiting for a generator. Yeah, that's right, sleeping in Sears with your dog. My then 7-month old Yorkie; Lacey. Sears was good about us sleeping in the store. They ordered pizza for us for supper and had donuts for our breakfast. But, sleeping in a sleeping bag on the floor of a department store was torture for me.

[rainstorm]

should be warmer than normal in the east which will recurve canes off the east coast, or they will take the south route through the carib

[vbhoutex]

should be warmer than normal in the east which will recurve canes off the east coast, or they will take the south route through the carib

Could you please explain further how the warmth affects recurving of Hurricanes?

[krysof]

warm air would not recurve hurricanes, thats completely inaccurate. Warmth or cold doesn't even effect if hurricanes recurve off the east coast or not. It depends how dry or wet it is, because if its dry, it means no trough or fronts to recurve the hurricanes off the east coast. If its wet, it usually means there is a front which would recurve hurricanes from the east coast, but if your talking about high pressure over the east coast, than the storm would recurve, but that's unlikely.

[rainstorm]

should be warmer than normal in the east which will recurve canes off the east coast, or they will take the south route through the carib

Could you please explain further how the warmth affects recurving of Hurricanes?

quite simple. if its warmer than normal in the east that means high pressure is over the east and a trough is off the coast. thus, the canes will recurve or take a southern route.

3 prime examples. 1980, 1988, 1995. all above normal temp wise in the east, and all featured recuves or tracks through the carib. 1980 and 1988 featured no cane hits on the east coast or fla, and while 1995 did have erin and opal hit fla, again none hit further up the coast.

in fact, go back and research warmer than normal summers along the east coast and you will find few cane hits on the east coast of fla or anywhere on the east coast of the united states.

[rainstorm]

warm air would not recurve hurricanes, thats completely inaccurate. Warmth or cold doesn't even effect if hurricanes recurve off the east coast or not. It depends how dry or wet it is, because if its dry, it means no trough or fronts to recurve the hurricanes off the east coast. If its wet, it usually means there is a front which would recurve hurricanes from the east coast, but if your talking about high pressure over the east coast, than the storm would recurve, but that's unlikely.

actually just the opposite. last year featured a trough along the east coast which brought a wet summer up and down the coast, plus below normal temps.