Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Hi folks. Taking a look at the 00z GFS tonight....it`s still showing that tomorrow through Saturday will remain dry with mostly sunny conditions, but also maybe some high clouds at times. However, we should see increasing clouds during the late afternoon and into evening hours of Saturday with rain showers spreading over the Wa. coast by 06z and over Puget Sound region by 12z Sunday morning. May have a few left over showers/sprinkles during early part of Sunday before high pressure starts to take hold again. Long range....14th - 19th looks to remain dry with the exception of maybe a few sprinkles and or light showers over South sounds area on the 17th.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy...

The front should pass through on Friday evening and Saturday morning. You are one day behind.

Remember... 00Z Sunday means Saturday afternoon.

[andycottle]

Ok Tim...uhh what? I have written down on paper that 00z is afternoon/evening...4pm. But how can 00z Sunday mean Saturday??
Can you enlighten me? :o) -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy...

We are 8 hours behind GMT (or UTC). When you see "00 UTC Sunday" on any weather model that equals midnight Saturday night in Greenwich, England.

We are 8 hours earlier here in Seattle... or 4 p.m. Saturday afternoon.

Check this link out...

http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/


Look at your maps again. The front passes between 06Z and 12Z Saturday.

Here is 12Z Saturday which is 4 a.m. on Saturday morning. The front is passing at this point...

[andycottle]

Thanks Tim. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Good morning all...

Well Sea-Tac stayed above freezing last night. Mostly in the mid-30's except 33 degrees at one point. At 6 a.m. its 36 degrees there so my forecast was not too bad (although the official low will be 33). I figured the high clouds would keep the temperature from plummeting. Its basically above freezing around the Seattle metro area. Everett is at 35 degrees and Bremerton is at 36 degrees.

I have 30.2 degrees at my house.

Well the system for this weekend looks to be about as pathetic as possible now. It will barely be noticeable. Just a little cooler than Friday. A weak system also means weaker southerly flow for Friday. Still it will be a very nice day.

The latest GFS model again does not show any arctic air and in fact shows some beautiful weather next week. Should have lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures until the Pacific low finally gets closer. That means near 50 on Monday and in mid 50's to near 60 degrees by the middle of next week.

Here is part of the Seattle discussion...

THE GFS/ECMWF AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A STRONG SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WA SMACK IN THE DRY SPOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF NICE WEATHER PROVIDED THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM ACTUALLY STAYS OVER OREGON/CA AS THE MODELS INSIST. MERCER

[W13]

Only got down to 27 F so far, so I guess my prediction was off by a few degrees.

[andycottle]

Hi All and good morning. At 7:54am we currently have a temp of 30, DP 30, humidity 100%, baro steady at 30.09 and with some high cirrus clouds over our area. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi folks. Looking this moring run of 06z GFS, looks like we stay rain free right on through Saturday, but with light showers/sprinkles developing by late Saturday night and continuing to the after mid-night hours of Sunday. During the daylight hour of Sunday through about the 16th look rain free and sunny, though it may be a bit on the cool side as 500MB heights appears to be in the 540`s DM. So other than a little rain, this strech of nice weather goes on. -- Andy

[cloud9]

Just for the record, I talked to my brother yesterday and he said he got 4" of snow Sunday. He lives in kendall up by Bellingham. Still had snow on the ground yesterday

[andycottle]

Rather quite here on this thread here this afternoon. A nice sunny afternoon here in Woodinville at 12:48pm with a temp of 47 and 59% humidity with baro 30.06 and slowly falling. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

What a beautiful day. Much less frost around the metro area this morning and perfectly sunny skies now.

Tomorrow will be even warmer... maybe even warmer than Friday but it will be close. Both days should be in the mid to upper 50's with sunshine. A few spots could approach 60 degrees. But hey... I have been saying this for about 10 day now!!

FYI - the GFS loses track of the pattern on the 18Z run and it should be discarded after 72 hours. I say this objectively. Trust me on this one guys.

The ECMWF is rock solid and maintains the course for a cool Monday followed by a very nice week.

[AnthonyC]

Another AWESOME day!!! Crystal, blue skies with a temperature of 45F. Unbelievable stuff for the beginning of February. I've never seen a February so nice. But remember, things can change pretty quickly...IT IS Seattle and February...the two don't go very well together.

As for the extended, Sunday and Monday look cool and showery...850 mb heights are down to -8C on Monday...500 mb heights are at 534. Unfortunately, not much precip for the mountains. If we don't get decent precip in the next six weeks...the mountains are screwed!!! I sure hope TT-SEA is correct with this predicted wild March. We desperately need it!!

Beyond Monday, things look AWESOME again!! 500 mb heights stay around 540 and a weak ridge of high pressure parks over the West Coast. Unfortunately, there's a cut-off low somewhere off the northern California/southern Oregon coast...models don't do well with cut-off lows. So if that low shifts another further north, we could be fairly wet all of next week. But if goes further south...which is usually the case...we'll stay high and dry!! In any event, NO COLD/ARCTIC air in the forseeable future...and honestly, I'm pretty happy about that!! Winter's over...and let's face it, it really sucked!!! One of the worst winters ever. Hopefully things change in the future.

Anthony

[Brian_from_bellingham]

I think Anthony's right, though we have seen snow in March, just usually not the kind that lasts for a long time and is really cold. Then again, the cold and snow we have had the last several years generally have not lasted a real long time either, except for maybe in the Whatcom County area where I live.

I have heard conflicting stories about El Nino. On the one hand, CPC has said the upper air patterns do not reflect El Nino, but on the other hand, California has been drenched, we have been very dry, sounds like El Nino to me. What do you all think?

Looking at the latest SST's, this week showed a significant cooling (relative to normal), the biggest cooling I have seen in a long time. Some think we may have a La Nina next year, which might not be good for lowland snow (like in the late 90's, Mt. Baker broke the all time world record for snow in a year, but we had none in the lowlands), but should be good for the mountains.

[~Brennan~]

The 18z may be out of wack according to TTSEA, but look at the 12z... It is the coldest run so far for late in the weekend and next week up until wednesday. It also shows a major arctic outbreak coming towards the end of february but as we all know too well, 15 days out on the GFS is rediculous... Although it is possible..

[R-Dub]

Our high was 44, and the low was 29 degrees.

2/9/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:23:20 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 41.3
Humidity (%) 74.3
Wind (mph) NNW 0.4
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.28
Dew Point: 35.7 ºF

[andycottle]

My high today here in Woodinville got to 48 and we had a low of 30 with some light frost. Currently at 3:35pm...we have sunny skies with a temp of 48, DP 32, humidity 55%, and baro 30.00 and steady. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Looking the 18Z run the GFS...dry and mostly sunny conditions continue through Saturday with showers/sprinkles coming into the picture late Saturday night into Sunday. Some sprinkles stick through about Monday. 850MB temps around +6C and warming to near +9C by about Thursday/Friday time frame, then droping to near -6C by sunday. 500MB voricity are also fairly high...as in 564DM for Thursday into Friday. Could mid-upper 50`s thoes two days! Then for the weekend...heights drop down between 540 and 546DM.

Long range... Strong high pressure appears to return for the 15th - 22nd as the Jet is in a major split postition with the Northern branch way up to our North and Southern branch being well to our South.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Man, I'm really liking this sunny weather!! I think sunny weather puts people in good moods...it just seems people are alot happier when it's sunny outside...esp. in Washington.

As for the extended, the reoccurring theme of a split flow continues...and if this isn't indicative of El Nino, I don't know what is. This winter looks very similar to a pattern we would experience with a strong El Nino.

The only cool/showery period I see is Sunday and Monday...if that. A weak trough passes through the PNW, but is quickly replaced by another Rex block in British Columbia. Like I said, something very similar to what we would experience with El Nino.

Let's face it, winter's over...GOOD RIDANCE!! This has been one of the worst winters I can remember. I think the only one that was worse was the 1997-1998 winter which had a strong El Nino. Hopefully this trend does not continue.

In the meantime, ENJOY THE SUN! With all this premature spring/summer feeling, I want winter gone and to finally say hello to SUMMER!

Oh yeah, I'm off to Utah tomorrow morning and I'll be there until Sunday night. I'll try to go online and update this site, but if you don't see me for a few days, don't think I left the site.

Anthony

[andrewr]

I remember one year I didn't see a single snowflake at my house. That must have been 97-98. At least this year I got .5", the second least amount of snowfall I can recall.