Which name(s)of the 2005 list will be the big one(s)?

[hurricanefreak1988]

Hey, you laugh at your pick, but you never know. For all we know, 10 months from now, we could be talking about how devastating Ophelia was. With the Atlantic, you can't predict anything.

[Josephine96]

that's a bit far down the list huh lol

[GrimReaper]

My prediction for the big one is going to be "Emily" and it is going to whomp Galveston??????

[leeanninbroward]

2005

Arlene
Bret
Cindy- bad one
Dennis
Emily
Franklin- slow building but will be feirce, however will turn befor it hits usa
Gert- small but visious
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina- hell on water, slows before it hits land
Lee- Lazy, will churn for days, but once it gets its mind made up, full force pain in the arse.
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma


I say that Cindy and Jose will be the big ones in 2005 meaning a Isabel,Ivan type systems.

[HalloweenGale]

ooh franklin... I am so scared! not. that will probably be a tropical storm, not like his dead brother Floyd, which was not very much of a hurricane in the carolinas. It was extratropical, the rain fell on the left side

[ohiostorm]

I'm going with Gert and Irene. Gert just sounds bad and Irene to keep the "I" streak going. Not that I want these storms to do damage!

[Andrew92]

I actually don't think the "I" storm will be that bad this year for some reason. Maybe because we're gonna run out of "I" storms if that keeps happening.

Slightly off-topic I know, but just for fun long-range predictions:

2005 Irene: nah, tropical storm only
2006 Isaac: fish hurricane
2007 Ingrid: C2 hurricane
2008 Ike: weak tropical storm
2009 Ida: I don't like the sound of this name right now, but time will tell over next four years.

Gert and Jose just sound much more threatening than Irene this year.

-Andrew92

[HurricaneBill]

Let's see........

In the past 20 years (1985-2004)

The A storm has become a hurricane 25% of the time. Out of those 5 hurricanes, 4 of them formed in August. (Arlene 1987, Andrew 1992, Alberto 2000, Alex 2004)

The only exception was 1995's Hurricane Allison, which formed in early June.

Andrew, Alberto, and Alex all became intense (Category 3+) hurricanes. Arlene and Allison were Category 1 hurricanes.

45% of the B storms have become hurricanes. Out of those 9 hurricanes, 4 became intense. (Bob 1991, Bertha 1996, Bonnie 1998, Bret 1999)

Out of those 4 storms, 3 formed in August. The exception is Bertha, an unusually early Cape Verde storm from July 1996.

All 4 intense hurricanes went on to make landfall on the US as Category 2 hurricanes or higher.

50% of the C storms have become hurricanes. However, only 3 became intense hurricanes. (Claudette 1991, Cindy 1999, Charley 2004)

55% of the D storms became hurricanes. However, none of them became intense hurricanes. (There has not been an intense D storm since Diana in 1984).

55% of the E storms became hurricanes. 6 became intense hurricanes.

70% of the F storms became hurricanes. 6 became intense hurricanes.

Out of the past 17 G storms, nearly 75% (13) became hurricanes. 6 became intense hurricanes.

Out of the past 14 H storms, nearly 43% (6) became hurricanes. 3 became intense hurricanes.

Out of the past 13 I storms, nearly 77% (10) became hurricanes. In fact, starting in 1990, every I storm has been a hurricane.

6 I hurricanes became intense hurricanes, including the last 5 I storms.

About 69% (9) of the past 13 J storms have become hurricanes. Only 2 (Joan 1988 and Jeanne 2004) became intense hurricanes.

About 62% (8) of the past 13 K storms have become hurricanes. 4 became intense hurricanes.

70% (7) of the past 10 L storms have become hurricanes. 4 became intense hurricanes.

[Mezocyclone]

Harvey is going to be a monster that devastates the Florida Keys I love the Keys as I grew up down there, but the pattern from 2004 shows a line that is targeting the Penninsula. I think we will see as many as five or six storms make landfall in Florida in 2005... at least two will be huge...

[krisj]

Dennis and Irene sound like the ones.
Emily and Nate caught my eye though because they are my kids' names.

[cyclonaut]

Dennis,Katrina & Jose sound like majors & Gert should end up being one of those ugly storms which will lead to the arguement whether it should've even been named.

With a name like Gert lets hope so,I don't want to have to put up shuttters for a silly name like that!

[cycloneye]

Let's have some more opinions about which names will be the big ones.

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

[CharleySurvivor]

I 'm going with Gert.... don't know why but for some reason it doesn't feel right.

Also wonder about Irene. One of my aunt's name which I love very much but... better get out of her way!

[HurricaneBill]

The ones that I'm concerned about would be Bret and Emily. Despite landfalls as major hurricanes (Emily twice!), neither have been retired.

Storms that miss retirement often make another go at it.

Examples:

Hurricane Hilda (missed retirement in 1955, got retired in 1964)

Hurricane Diana (missed retirement in 1984, got retired in 1990)

Hurricane Juan (missed retirement in 1985, got retired in 2003)

[Andrew92]

The ones that I'm concerned about would be Bret and Emily. Despite landfalls as major hurricanes (Emily twice!), neither have been retired.

Storms that miss retirement often make another go at it.

Examples:

Hurricane Hilda (missed retirement in 1955, got retired in 1964)

Hurricane Diana (missed retirement in 1984, got retired in 1990)

Hurricane Juan (missed retirement in 1985, got retired in 2003)

You could also make a case for Gert having been close to retirement. It killed 76 people and caused major flooding throughout Central America in 1993.

Speaking of Gert, she remains my top pick, Jose as runner-up. I'm starting to get vibes, however, that Katrina might be a contender.

-Andrew92

[OuterBanker]

I figure it will be Dennis or Emily. Both names caused damage on the OBX a few years ago. I just hope that they are fish, don't care for history repeating itself, lol. Fla now joins NC in being over hurricanes, they had a decade of relief, but mother nature made up for it in one year.

[Scorpion]

I think its going to be Franklin and Irene. Irene is going to be a Cat 5.

[weatherwindow]

after careful consultation with my crystal ball ....my nod goes to cindy(major), franklin(major) and irene. after a late start due to a lingering weak el nino event, cindy landfalls mid august on the central gulf coast. franklin follows in early sept reaching the southeast fla coast. irene repeats in the keys in mid october......why make measured predictions when you can really go out on a limb ................rich

[george_r_1961]

Emily

[canegrl04]

The ladies -Emily,Gert and Irene