The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Just wish we'd get a shot of cold air to go along with these "wet" systems, don't get me wrong, the rain is FANTASTIC however, with as saturated as the ground is, the rain's no longer soaking in, it's running off, doing little, if ANYTHING in the way of replenishing the ground water supply that we so despertaly NEED!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
THE MAIN LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AS IS DOES MODERATE OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL COMBINED TO CREATE ENOUGH FORCING THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE WITH THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS. THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST ALONG CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK. EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THESE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS UTAH...THE TIMING OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BY THIS TIME IS PROJECTED TO WRAP NORTHWARD A HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY GIVE US MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
Dennis
