Pacific Northwest Weather

[Guest]

Hey everyone, still splotches of snow in some spots in my grass... I get no sun at all throughout any time of the day. My high temps for the last three days have been 38,37,39 with lows of 30 on each night... We don't get as low with radiational cooling because of the warmth of Lake Whatcom. It is only in the upper 30's in temperature but it does enough to keep us from dipping too low when the only cooling is radiational.

As for late weekend and early next week. I can't believe everyone here is talking about spring. Yeah the weather is nice and sunny but case and point, we are far from spring and this weekend and early next week will definately not feel like spring. Yes we all know today and tomorrow are going to be far above normal, "spring like" but that will come to an end starting this weekend. Other than that I am going to keep my mouth shut... wouldn't want anyone freaking out.

And TT said,

SW - thats a very good point. You pretty much have to mention snow any time cold air is within 1,000 miles just to cover your bases and keep your standing in the group as the cold weather expert. It would be quite a disaster to have a snowstorm sneak up on YOU!!!

Is that suppose to be a joke or what? Because it sounds like you are "hatin" on snow wizzard... Sorry for the gangster talk LOL

[andycottle]

Ok folks...the 18Z GFS is out. And basicly, it`s showing the same idea with dry, mild and mostly sunny weather during the day tomorrow with increasing clouds by late afternoon and showers into Late Friday night and into Saturday with scattered showers/sprinkles for Sunday and maybe Monday. In the long range...15th - 22nd, we continue with cool sunny weather due the Jet still being in a split flow theme and cool night time lows. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... please stop trying to create problems.

Snow Wiz and I are cool.

And please stop ripping people for loving spring. They represent probably 98% of the population of Western Washington!!

Remember... Bellingham and Seattle are very different places at times. We are in full blown spring down here.

It is current 60.2 degrees at my house with perfect sunshine. Most places are in the 50's though.

Talking about snow on the ground down here is comical right now!!

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF for next week... not too cold looking to me!!

[snow_wizzard]

The high / low average at my place today was only 37 degrees. Below normal even for January. You can spin it to make it sound like spring or like winter.

The ECMWF is not very impressive. I guess time will tell. The GFS insists that early next week will be cold. Certainly no doubt the ridge is going to be spending more time further west than it has been. Probably the beginning of the big change.

[snow_wizzard]

I am becoming more and more convinced that we have entered a pattern resembling the "Jekyll and Hyde" 1930s. That decade featured the wildest most varible weather of any decade on record. The decade featured a lot of blocking and continental influence such as we have been seeing for the past year or so. That would alternate with monster snowstorms, terrible floods, drought, severe cold spells, you name it. One of the warmest winters on record was 1933 - 34, and that was followed by three very harsh winters in a row. 1932 featured the only freezing low temps to be recorded in the lowlands in the month of June.

In short the decade had some long periods of boring and uneventful weather, but they invariably ended with jaw dropping occurences. Any time we are being dominated by continental influences things can go from mamby pamby to wild without warning. Just remember this post when the nasty weather rears it's "ugly" head later on. What form that nastiness may take remains to be seen. Could it be a late season freeze, a big snowstorm, damaging winds, an endless string of cloudy and wet days...who knows. I just think it's likely the flip side of the coin is about to be seen!

[R-Dub]

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday, we topped out at 45.4 degrees today after a morning low of 26.7 degrees. Coldest morning yet this week. We still have frost in our sheltered areas at the golf course as of 3:00PM, and several of our greens are now rock hard frozen. When the golf balls hit these frozen greens, they bounce just like if you bounced it on concrete. Many people are saying this weather is just like last week, but that is not the case, at least here in the northern areas. Last week we had highs in the mid 60's/Lows in the low 40's. This week we haven't gotten above the mid 40's, and the lows have been in the mid to upper 20's. Haven't had time to look at the models, so I have no input yet on what may happen this weekend/next week. My gut though is still saying colder then even this week has been..............Whatever happens, happens

2/10/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:12:39 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 44.7
Humidity (%) 59.4
Wind (mph) N 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.12
Dew Point: 34.2 ºF

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard...

It looks like spring and it feels like spring. That is what I call spring. Every single day this week I have seen something new blooming as I drive around town. And the grass is definitely not going dormant as you predicted last week.

You might be ignoring these signs of spring by choice. But they are all over the place.

Next week is up in the air. I do not see snow... but cooler weather is possible. I just think the GFS is demonstrating its southwestward bias for cold air. If it is just a bias... then expect a repeat of this week.

That spells pleasant!! Particularly for Seattle in February.

I expect a stong zonal flow to develop for March. Above normal rainfall for the lowlands and WAY above normal snowfall in the mountains. I also expect one or two bouts with colder weather and chance of at least one heavy wet snowstorm in the lowlands.

Time will tell.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 850mb temps from the latest ECMWF for one week from now. Look where the cold air is directed... definitely not at us!!!

I trust the ECMWF way more with cold air placement overall.

[R-Dub]

Its only 34 degrees in Granite Falls (a foothill community almost directly east of me) With a dew point of 14 degrees. Olympia is 41 degrees, but yet South Bend its 60 degrees, and Sammamish its 58 degrees. Quite a wild range of temps today. Still 44 degrees here with the dewpoint around the freezing mark.

Looks like another cold night tonight also.

Snow level down to 1,500FT by Saturday, looks like a cold rain here, and snow in the mountains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 315 PM PST THU FEB 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION...ONE LAST CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FRONT OFFSHORE STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRI AND BRING RAIN FRI NIGHT. SHOULD BE MEASURABLE RAINFALL EVERYWHERE. BY 12Z SAT FRONT IS IN THE CASCADES AND WE HAVE WESTERLY GALES IN THE STRAIT. SFC AND ALOFT TROF MOVES THROUGH SAT FOR SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES...1500 FEET OR SO. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY THAT IS WEAKER AND HAS BEEN VARYING IN INTENSITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. STILL...HIGH POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED. EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...WEATHER NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY. CUTOFF LOW FAR TO THE SOUTH. COULD BE FOG AROUND THE AREA BUT MODEL SHOWS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SO WILL WAIT FOR NOW. BURKE

[W13]

Currently 51 F after touching on 54 F a few minutes ago. We also had a low of 24 F this morning.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...You are so right. This week has been nothing like last week. The average low at my place has been 28.0 so far this week (Sun - Thur). At least in my area everything has gone dormant again. The ground is frozen at night, through late morning. This week colder than last week...next week colder than this week. Could this be a pattern showing up? It has been years since this kind of a late season cold night regime has set up. In fact we now stand at 8 lows of 25 or below for this winter, one more would be the most for any season since 1996 - 97. I like that stat!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...In all fairness you need to show the ECMWF 850mb temp map for day 4 also. It certainly looks rather cold for us and warm for the rest of the country.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_96.gif

As for day 7...Notice that the strongest surface high shown in or near North America is to the NW of us. A surface high to the NW always spells below normal temps for this region. That map at day 7 suggests a lot of trapped cold air for us. The surface high being to our NW strongly hints that the ridge will reamplify off the coast a day or two later. Things are beginning to shift in our favor....that is if you want colder and more active weather.

[W13]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/WAZ004.php?warncounty=WAC033&city=Kent

Now NWS is saying Rain/Snow Showers likely for Saturday Night.

[~Brennan~]

hey TT just letting you know that by no means was I trying to start trouble. Now you keep posting your predictions for the current week, lets recall me saying that seattle would be 5-8 degrees colder than average early next weekand certain outlying areas would be 10-15 degrees colder than average...

And TT... Looks like Spring, Feels like Spring, STILL WINTER... That's what I call winter... At 307 feet elevation in Bellingham Washington I still have spots of snow in the mossy parts of the yard... 600 feet elevation there is still a good 2 inches of snow left...That's what I call winter, no matter how warm Seattle is... Who cares about downtown seattle.

Hey R-dub I just want to let you know that I havn't forgotten about the money that I owe you for the tapes... I will get that in the mail as soon as I can... Winter Ball is this saturday and I'll probably spending quite a bit of money and valentines is monday and that costs money too if you know what I mean... After that things will calm down in my wallet and I'll get the 10$ to ya...

[andycottle]

The forecast for here in Woodinville says the same, but we will see. -- Andy. Oh BTW...our high today was 54 with a low of 26. A nice and mostly sunny day today...that`s for sure!

[R-Dub]

Brennan check your PM!

2/10/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:48:25 PM CURRENT
High Clouds
Temperature (ºF) 34.8
Humidity (%) 92.5
Wind (mph) N 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.04
Dew Point: 33.8 ºF

[snow_wizzard]

Well folks, this is one strange pattern we are in. The 850mb temps are supposed to plunge by 7 degrees C between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon! With no cold front? I would have to say with offshore gradients becoming much lighter tomorrow and the lower 850mb temps. tomorrow could easily be cooler than today....especially in the places that were rather warm today. I can't believe the extreme difference in temps around here this week. In many cases, the places having the warmest days are having the coldest nights. Case in point...Covington today high 51 low 24...now that is a range!

[R-Dub]

Yeah Snowwiz, I think it will be colder next week then it is right now. I think we are in the "step down process"! Each week things get a little colder, until........... BAM!!!!!! I am going to bring up 1993 once again, seems like this month has been a carbon copy of Feb 1993 so far! in Feb '93 temps started out in the 60's with very little precip, then each week was a "step down" temp wise until we got 4" of snow on by the 20th. With the snow cover, even though the temps would rebound into the upper 30's and 40's for highs, we had lows in the teens because of the cooling effect of the snow on the ground. That lasted into the very first part of March. I am standing by my gut, and the fact that this Feb has been identical to Feb '93.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow! It is probably too early to get too excited about this, but the map speaks for itself...only 1 week out.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_168m.htm

I agree with you R-Dub...I think the countdown has begun. The El Nino has dramtically disappeared over the past week, and the atmosphere is restructuring. This could be a mighty cold late Feb - April coming up!