The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
FXUS65 KFGZ 111037 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 330 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ZONE 17. LATEST MODELS ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN...HOWEVER CURRENT RAWS REPORTS ARE SHOWING THAT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS BY THE MODELS ARE UNDER DONE AND THAT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COCONINO...YAVAPAI...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND STRONGEST OROGRAPHICS MOVES ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. ANOTHER 0.3 TO 0.70 INCHES OF RAIN COULD ALSO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON ANOTHER SYSTEM BY LATE NEXT WEEK THAT COULD ALSO BRING MORE WET WEATHER BACK TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIP CHC`S WERE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF COCONINO...YAVAPAI... PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND APACHE...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES TO 100 PERCENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Dennis
