Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#161 Postby sertorius » Fri Feb 11, 2005 10:50 pm

Frank:

We have been about average I guess-some very warm periods, but a few bitter cold out breaks-we are way above precip. wise-but the cold and precip. have never come together. It does seem, based on the PNA, that there may be opp. for some sort of winter weather if the everything can come together. Anyways, the fish are beginning to feel the higher sun angle on the water-before long the bass will move into the shallows!!
0 likes   

frankthetank
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: La Crosse, WI

#162 Postby frankthetank » Fri Feb 11, 2005 11:44 pm

I bought my boat late Feb of 2000...March 7th, 2000 it was 82f here in LaCrosse (major record breaker)... I still remember like it was yesterday because I was flying down the main channel of the Mississippi river (no ice whatsoever) with SHORTS on (and sandals!!!!!!) and it felt like air conditioning because the water was probably (i would have to look it up) only in the low 40's (if that)....insane....It was weird how bad the boat was sweating (water beading up on the metal--like a cold glass of water on a hot day)...

i need another!

you "only" hit 79f on that day...

The local NWS met here in LAX doesn't know what to think of the 00z vs 12z EURO runs. His confidence is low of how far south that cold air is going to move.

...MORE RECORDS AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN AND ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...
THE TEMPERATURE AT THE LA CROSSE AIRPORT REACHED 82 DEGREES...THE
OLD RECORD WAS 74 IN 1987. NOT ONLY IS THIS THE RECORD FOR MARCH
7TH...BUT IT ALSO MARKS THE EARLIEST FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80 DEGREES
OR GREATER IN LA CROSSE. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 80 DEGREE OR GREATER
DAY WAS BACK ON MARCH 23RD 1910.
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#163 Postby sertorius » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:04 am

Frank:

That is an awesome boat!! Sounds like great day!! Did the fish bite??? I have no idea what is going to happen-I'd say by Wed. we will have temps. back to or just below normal if maybe not a bit colder. There is a chance of some precip. but both the EURO and GFS show the possibility of a stronger storm next weekend. Beyond that, the GFS and MRF on the 0z runs wnat to blow torch us beginning next Monday-the EURO is much colder at 10 days. Still early-currently, I'm about 12 hours away from some nice rain!!!
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#164 Postby sertorius » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:24 am

Just a quick look at things for this area-for what ever it is worth-and prob. not very much!!!LOL

This weekend: Rain, Rain, Rain!!! Our above average precip. continues!!!

Next Week: I really think the only definite thing is that by Wednesday, we will return to normal if not slightly below normal temps. The precip. details are not yet hashed out. The EURO shows a low on Wed. in Oklahoma at the surface and on the 500 charts then it is gone by Thursday with High Pressure right on top of us. Both the GFS and NAM bring the cold air down quicker on Tuesday but not much precip at all. We should see a better handle on all this by Monday.

Next Weeeknd: The 0z Gem, 0Z Euro, 0z and 06Z GFS today all show the potential for a big weather maker here next weekend-all three have the low and a pretty strong one (the GEM today wraps it up over southern Missouri)-this has been hinted at for the last couple of days. Areas to my North, say Omaha, will prob. make out better than I will here as it looks like the cold vs warm air battle will take shape right over the top of me-still way out I mean way out so who knows-the GFS will take this 700 miles North and South over the next 5 days!! At least it is something-also, the PNA is forecast to be about 0-1 at that time-that is a good indicator for this area.

Beyond: The 10 day EURO at 500 looks alot colder than the 0z GFS or MRF beyond next weekend. Both the GFS and mRF begin a massive warm up for us after next weekend which would last for the remainder of the month-who knows-just ideas.

Basically, it looks like we have something to watch for the Central Plains after say Monday and going thru next Monday-how will it all pan out-who knows!!!
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#165 Postby sertorius » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:32 am

One little interesting tid bit: As of now 6:30 A.M. there is a batch of precip heading North East-not sure how much is reaching the ground-however, by temp. is currently at 29 degrees-may, I mean may see some wet snow or lt. freezing rain this morning before it quickly turns to rain!!!
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#166 Postby simplykristi » Sat Feb 12, 2005 9:14 am

KC is under a Flood Watch. It looks like we could get a lot of rain.

Kristi
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#167 Postby sertorius » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:05 am

Simplykristi:

Yea-we are going to get a pretty good douse of rain the next 24 hours for sure-if only some cold air were in place!! That is the story of this winter-the cold and precip can't meet up-when it does, the storm fizzles!! Later this week and next weekend could be interesting, but that is way far off!!!
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#168 Postby sertorius » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:20 am

Quick note: Sure smells like Spring outside-our temp. has jumped 10 degrees in 2 hours!!!! Smells like a rain in April outside-accept for the few snow patches left around!!!!
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#169 Postby simplykristi » Sat Feb 12, 2005 11:10 am

We are way above for precip since the beginning of January. I believe we are 3 1/2 inches for the year so far.

Kristi
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#170 Postby sertorius » Sun Feb 13, 2005 7:35 am

Good morning-a few quick thoughts:

1. Still on track to get colder air in here by mid week. The EURO brings it down Wed.-the GFS and NAM bring it down Tuesday-It really looks like we will return to normal or a bit below normal by mid week with the possibility of very lt. precip. Tuesday or Wed. This could still change.

2. Next Weekend: the 06Z GFS is totally different than the 0Z run and brings the low back south and has it as a stronger piece of energy. The EURO is bringing this out slower and has a 999 low sitting at the corner of South Western Kansas and South eastern Colorado on Sunday-the EURO has pretty powerfull storm somming out into the plains next weekend. Our 850 temps. are just below 0-if this does track thru southern Kansas, I might just see rain here in Lawrence/Kansas City or an ice storm based on the 0z run of the Euro. However, it is way to early of course-right now, I'd say that someone from Southern North Dakota-Northern Oklahoma into Minn.-Missouri or North. Arkansas has a chance of a signifiacnt winter event next weekend. Big swath I know, but it is way too early to see any details-even the EURO has changed it's track somewhat from the 12Z run Yesterday. The whole plains area has a chance at something next weekend-who gets what will not be flushed out untill prob. Thursday (when i will be on retreat and w/out a computer!! If I am supp. to get all rain which will prob. be the case, do me a favor and just don't tell mee!!!)

Beyond: both the 0Z Euro and 06Z GFS show the chillier air sticking around thru the following week.

Interesting times ahead for sure!!!

By the way-I have had close to an inch of rain the past 24 hours if not more-great soaker for sure!!!

Just to add to this: NWS out of both KC and Topeka think next as of now next weekend will be no big deal-rain and fast moving.
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#171 Postby simplykristi » Sun Feb 13, 2005 5:53 pm

I was in Lawrence today. It was raining in KC when we left but it had stopped raining by the time we got to Lawrence. We were celebrating some birthdays.. My mom's brother and his family live in Lawrence. Their son, my cousin, was having his scout troop's annual chili feed. We have gone every year for the last several years. Now that my cousin is turning 18 this next week, he can't participate in scouts anymore. I love the city of Lawrence. :)

Kristi
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#172 Postby sertorius » Sun Feb 13, 2005 9:08 pm

Simplykristi:

There is no doubt that Lawrence is awesome!!! Having some issues now batteling how to develop etc. as it is growing at a tremendous rate but I am glad I moved back-when I was in college here, I always said I would!!!! It is nice to be "home"!!! I hope you had a fun day-sure felt like early April today!!
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#173 Postby sertorius » Sun Feb 13, 2005 9:42 pm

Alright, why I am even posting this is beyond me, but I just have to say something: How do mets. use the GFS for weather in the central plains? Today is a great example of how eratic that model is-2-2 today-2 runs (the 0z and 18Z) take the low next weekend just North of me-2 other runs today, (06Z and 12Z) take the low thru Oklahoma. Following the GFS is like an Ancient Historian (which is what I am) trying to figure out a historical process using 2,000 year old Latin and Greek texts that aren't even primary documents-a qugmire!!! Thus, someone using the GFS alone, would have no more of an idea about Saturday than he/she would have yesterday. I just find this interesting is all.
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#174 Postby sertorius » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:47 am

Quick update this morning:

The 0z Euro today does not bode well for snow or ice for the Lawrence/Kansas City area this weekend. The low is weakened and heads from Central Colorado almost due east to Central Illinois by Monday-that takes the low North of this area and leaves us with some rain. Will be interesting to see if this actually becomes a trend, or if on the 12Z or 0Z tomorrow it takes it back south. The 0z GEM today has an identical track (the GEM is interesting for next week-what you know-a chance for something a week away!!) Granted, the 0z GFS and 0z MRF bring the low into Oklahoma and give us a pretty good snow storm-but that really means squat. No doubt, one needs to follow the combination of the EURO and GEM. Things could change for sure, esp. if this low mid week does something different (more cold air, sets up some blocking etc.) but as of this moring, the chances for Kansas City/Lawrence seeing a big snow storm this weekend look very meek!! By contrast, based on this run, areas of Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan look to have quite the snow maker.
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#175 Postby simplykristi » Mon Feb 14, 2005 7:36 am

My aunt made the comment about living in Lawrence, which they love. I remarked that it would not be a bad place to live. If I could find a decent job in Lawrence, I would probably move there. I loved it when I was going to KU.

Kristi
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#176 Postby sertorius » Tue Feb 15, 2005 6:29 am

Good Morning: Last post for a while as I am heading to a retreat today with 45 High School seniors!!! To be honest, I think this weekend is still up in the air-the 0z GFS was way North-the 06Z gfs looks like it is trending south-I only have access thru 114 hours currently. The 0z GEM was North-it has been the most consitent. The 0Z Euro is further North today, but much much weaker. Hopefully things will come into focus by Thursday. I would have to say though, that this does not look like much for Lawrence/Kansas City as of now-the EURO does have a clipper diving down Friday/Saturday which is a new feature if I remember correctly. Time will tell-have a good rest of the week. Much to all your chagrins, I will bring this thread back when I return!!!!
0 likes   

frankthetank
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: La Crosse, WI

#177 Postby frankthetank » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:52 am

Image

Looks like the Euro is showing a nice warmup (for you!)...168hr out its hard to say. Weather has been boring lately. inch of slush on Sunday night, followed by a charge of cold air (low last night was 19f) and tonight and tomorrow look really chilly (single digits).

In Lawrence, are the summers very humid? Probably a lot less humid in W KS? I know when i was in CO the air was very dry (almost desertish)...
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#178 Postby simplykristi » Wed Feb 16, 2005 11:09 pm

It can get humid here in the summer.

Kristi
0 likes   

sertorius
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 640
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 2:52 pm
Location: Lawrence, Kansas

#179 Postby sertorius » Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:08 pm

Hello again everybody!! I'm back from my retreat-it was incredible. Just quickly glanced at the models (My youngest son's day care fell thru today so I had to leave early from the retreat) and I really have no idea what to make of it. The supp. cold front this week really didn't cool things off all that much. This weekend's "event" will be all rain-currently I'm in the upper 40's-beautifull day really and the whole week has been like this!! The 12Z GFS is showing some possibilities next week as is the EURO. Of course both were showing the same thing last week. Who knows?? Time will tell. I'm back, so expect to be bored once again by this thread!!!

Frank:

As Kristy said-we get incredibly humid here in the summer-our humidity can easily get above 80% for 2-3 week stretches and it doesn't nec. mean it is going to rain either!!!!
0 likes   

simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:

#180 Postby simplykristi » Fri Feb 18, 2005 6:55 pm

Glad you had a nice time at the retreat.

Looks like another rainy weekend here. It looks like not as much rain as last weekend tho. We are at 3 1/2 pluys inches for the year so far.

Kristi
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests