Thoughts for Plains eastward for PD weekend.

[Guest]

As some may have started to notice there is some talk of perhaps a big winterstorm for presidents day weekend affecting areas from the Plains east into the MW, OH/TN Valley's and parts of the eastcoast. (PD 3 Perhaps????)

One thing for sure right now is that we have pretty dam good model agreement that there will be a rather strong system comming out of the SW/Southern Rockies headed eastward meeting up with some very cold air comming down from Canada.

Possibility 1. Some models say the southern Plains (KS, N.OK), southernOV and TN Valley going east into NC/VA and the rest of the MA from NYC south get the big hit. With bigtime snows from KY north into Central OH/IN and WV and east Into NC, VA, MD, DE, PA, NJ and se NY. With mixing/icing concerns further south into TN, NE GA, SC etc.
Possibility 2* And then you have others that say KS/NE east to MW, OV and north ( i70 corridor north )going Eastward into the MA (DC North)and much of the NE Up to Boston get the big snows with the mixing concerns to the south of there. In both situations i am accounting for cad which by the looks of everything will play a big role as far as precip types go along the eastern seaboard from GA North IF everything holds up as the models suggest at this point.

Either way its very nice to see lots of model agreement and its now within the 10day time frame.

I know some elsewhere wanna discount the seasonal pattern of the north trends in part because of the split flow type pattern we will have and such as depicted by the models but i for one would NOT do that and ignore that trend at this point. One good argument against a north trend would be a negative nao and 50/50 which the models are suggesting at this point BUT as well they have done this before only to have something missing when the storm came and ended up with a track further north.

Still early to say exactly who gets what etc imo but its something everyone needs to start keepting a eye on.

At this point i am favoring Possibility 2 because of seasonal trends etc.

Will ofcourse refine as we draw closer to the event.

[Matt31388]

I am gonna keep my fingers crossed for possibility one. Our last big snow was about 3 or 4 years ago in Eastern KY. and that brought about only 6 inches.

[ohiostorm]

Any one of those 2 senerios would be fine with me. Just give me some friggin snow.

[JenyEliza]

Any one of those 2 senerios would be fine with me. Just give me some friggin snow.

AMEN. Snow....not ice.

[sertorius]

KingOfWeather:

Thanks for the post-I have been watching this for the past 2-3 days (that is how boring the weather has been this year for this area)-it does have potential and with the PNA being around 1 or so, this area can get good winter events. Again, thanks for the post-great discussion and information!!!

[Jrodd312]

Either way is fine with me too.

[Jrodd312]

Any updates KOW? or anone else? Local mets here in philly are starting to say it will be an ice to snow event.