Mid-Month Pattern Change Appears Highly Likely

[donsutherland1]

Krysof,

That's a very bold statement.

Feb. 12-28: warm
Feb. 12-28: no snow

I very much doubt that either will hold up. With regard to the models showing only a springlike pattern, it appears that you have not had a look at the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF. The models are all going very strongly for the pattern change now. If the models are right, you will be in for a very big shock how the second half of the month fares.

[Jrodd312]

winter is so over here in the northern mid atlantic, horrible models show warm, hot air with rain, no snow

You are the BIGGEST baby i have ever heard! Once again if you are going to start saying stuff you have to "back it up" which you cant obviosly do. Stop complaining and whining winter is not over for the east. MJO will be at stage 8 in no time.

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick additional note on the use of historical data and climatology. I received an interesting e-mail from someone who read the thread and I was told not to be too worried about using climatology to assist my arguments. It's already done in various settings in meteorology. For example, the MOS tends to place greater weight on climatology over longer timeframes. Why? Because the state of current modeling is not yet at the point where it is clearly superior to climatology over those extended timeframes.

To be sure, I used the climatology in a somewhat different fashion. Rather than trending an outcome toward climatology, I used climatology, among other things, to support solutions that were showing up on some of the guidance (GFS ensembles and ECMWF). I believe the use of such climatology can help lower--not eliminate--uncertainty. This can be invaluable when one is trying to identify a turning point--pattern changes are turning points, so to speak--and such turning points are extremely challenging.

Anyway, that's my two cents for now. Whether or not it has any currency remains to be seen. The change is still ahead and model support at this point is anything but verification.

[Anonymous]

Excellent discussion once again Don ! As we can all see in the last several posts concerning winter analysis and now the second half of February, this guy has done his homework !

He takes into account the most important and relevant variables which can determine a particular outcome for a particular region, plus climatology and historical data, which are important as well.

Don reminds me very much of a special forecaster I used to communicate with in the 80's through mid 90's (a 90 year old meteorologist !) who was into Almanac forecasting a year in advance using planetary alignments and their resulting effects on earth's weather patterns. He used to nail a snowstorm in the Midwest/east a whole year before it happened based on these factors ! He had tons of experience and started back in 1914. We used to write letters back and forth (before the internet came) through the 80's and we always discussed ENSO effects on winter weather patterns, including solar activity, plus the strength of the STJ to see how much precip we could expect in the East.

Wish I could introduce him to this board, but unfortunately he is no longer willing to learn computers at his age...............

Ken

[krysof]

no snow

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, the February 12, 2005 12z run of the ECMWF:



In short, things are still looking very good for the pattern change and threats of storminess.

[yoda]

It looke great Don.

[krysof]

whatever storm threat the models show will diminsh soon, I know it will, I am almost 100% sure.

[donsutherland1]

The footsteps of the coming pattern change are growing louder...

• NAO: now negative
• AO: now negative

Also, much of Canada per the 10-day Canadian Ensemble means now depicts near normal and somewhat below normal readings. The trend toward colder continues on the Canadian Ensembles.

[krysof]

than forget my "opinions" but if I don't see snow by the end of the month, than I was right about one thing.

[krysof]

by the way, can u guys back-up your information for snow, a -NAO means cold, but it could be dry, what about snow and moisture, and no I'm not looking for attention Stephanie.

[Stephanie]

by the way, can u guys back-up your information for snow, a -NAO means cold, but it could be dry, what about snow and moisture, and no I'm not looking for attention Stephanie.

Read what Don has already posted for backup.

[krysof]

ok, but that's from a couple of days ago.

[Guest]

ok, but that's from a couple of days ago.

Hopefully you can read a model.

Anyways go check out the 12z EC, GFS, GGEM and while your at it go check out the latest NAM for Tuesday/Wed.

NUFF SAID!

[krysof]

yes I know how to read a model, I'm not stupid. In fact, after checking the models, the cold air doesn't seem to be getting in with the storm, or retreating I mean. The freezing line has gone north in some of the models.

[donsutherland1]

Krysof,

Here's how the Top 15 ENSO Analogs fared with regard to average February snowfall when the NAO was considered:


Positive NAO:
• Boston: 11.6"
• New York City: 5.8"
• Washington, DC: 3.8"

Negative NAO:
• Boston: 20.5"
• New York City: 11.2"
• Washington, DC: 5.0"

Increase in Average Monthly Snowfall with Negative NAO:
• Boston: 77%
• New York City: 93%
• Washington, DC: 32%

[krysof]

if u say it will snow this month, than why isn't there any storm threat, temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week. Face the facts, temperatures are too warm for any snow for the i-95 corridor and south, only northern new england and new england. There is no storm threat, it's February 14, the window of snow opportunity is closing and temperatures are warming, just because the NAO is expected to be negative doesn't mean its going to be below freezing temperatures. As days keep passing, the sun gets stronger and higher in the sky, temperatures are warming. The window is closing. How can you say it will snow this month? Long range forecasts show nothing.

[Stephanie]

The local weather stations and TWC use the GFS as their basis for their forecasts. That's one model.

[vbhoutex]

if u say it will snow this month, than why isn't there any storm threat, temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week. Face the facts, temperatures are too warm for any snow for the i-95 corridor and south, only northern new england and new england. There is no storm threat, it's February 14, the window of snow opportunity is closing and temperatures are warming, just because the NAO is expected to be negative doesn't mean its going to be below freezing temperatures. As days keep passing, the sun gets stronger and higher in the sky, temperatures are warming. The window is closing. How can you say it will snow this month? Long range forecasts show nothing.

The answer is very easy!! Don Sutherland has been right on with his forecasts over and over and over!!!! I have yet to see you nail one. Believe me if you turn out to be right on this I will say you were. I am not afraid to say I made a mistake. You can ask anyone on this site. I have eaten my share of crow. Don is the same way. If he busts a forecast(which is very seldom) he says he did and even posts the back up for his bust. Will you do the same or will there be some excuses?

[donsutherland1]

The fact that the PDO went positive in January increases my confidence in the idea that snows will be coming to the East. Using the top 15 ENSO analogs, here are the average figures for February snowfall in select cities based on the PDO:

Code: Select all

         BOS   NYC    DCA
PDO +    18.2  11.5   6.2
PDO -    18.1   7.2   2.4


Moreover, when the PDO was positive, Washington, DC was only 1/3 as likely to see less than 1" of snow in February than when the PDO was negative. New York City was 2 1/2 times more likely to see 10" or more snow for the month.