a clarification about charley

[Derek Ortt]

there were gusts to 150KT in Port Charlotte at the Charlotte County Medical Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml

This is an excerpt of the FL winds "This estimate is based on maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 148 kt" (Pasch et all, 2004). 90 percent yields close to 135KT

This was right on the border of cat 4/5, and maybe it did just tip over. Charley as a 5 is much more credible than Andrew as a 4

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah there is more data to Support the upgrade the upgrade then Andrew in 1992. I expect with this data it will be upgraded.

[HurricaneBill]

Unless some strong data indicates so, I doubt Charley will get upgraded to a Category 5. If he was, he would probably have been a Category 5 at landfall on Cayo Costa.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is some pretty strong data. I would not beat the farm on it. In I think Derek knows what he is talking about.

[MWatkins]

Again...I'm not entirely sure that it makes much difference...but there is no direct credible evidence that Charley was ever a category 5 hurricane...and there is 0% chance that it will ever be upgraded.

148 knots at 90% reduces to about 133 knots...still short. If anything...this would have supported a surface wind of 155MPH...which while severe is still below the theshold of a Cat 5. And...gusts don't count.

In fact...any comparison between Charley and Andrew should stop with they were both small intensifying systems at landfall...consider the trusted analysis from HRD...noting the differences in storm structure at landfall:

Andrew:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... dfall.html

Charley:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

and
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

Charley is not credible as a category 5 storm IMHO...but what difference...other than this discussion...does it make?

MW

[MWatkins]

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
I would think 6 mph is not a heck of alot. 150 to 156 mph. So Charley was very close to a cat5. Some day shown Gust upwards of 180 mph. Even taking off that would still be 155 to 160 mph storm.

13 or so billion dollars of damage. Its darn close.

Ivan yes it was a cat5 over the Caribbean. No it was not a cat5 at the coast. Data shown that winds where no more then 130 mph at landfall. Some data I was looking at only shown 95 knot winds at landfall.


Mw you also forget Cyclone Tracy with 950 pressure.

Matt...this applies here so I'm reposting:

Your point...as to what is the big deal between 150 and 156 MPH...is a good one but I think for a different reason. Our complete inability to get accurate wind measurements renders discussions like this one purely acedemic...what difference does it make if a cat 4 or cat 5 took your roof off and destroyed your belongings?

But in this case...peak winds were estimated at 130 knots...a full 10 knots below the threshold for a category 5 storm...and at that level 10 knots makes a huge difference.

We do know that the NHC/TPC will go up even in the absence of actual wind data (Gaston being a hurricane in post-analysis is a good example) there is nothing concrete or compelling...anywhere...that would support a category 5 classification. Even the made-up data didn't support the arguement.

But to your point....I agree 100%...what difference does it really make other than to have something to discuss in the dead of winter? It was still a nasty hurricane.

(ps I didn't forget tracy..the intensity at Darwin is still debated...I believe it is still also offically a Cat 4 but there is some debate that it was a Cat 5 (even though the Saffir Simpson sale only applies to the Atlantic)...but the damage pattern there was worse than SW FL...course...that's hard to quantifty considering differences in construction standards etc.)

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It was close but nothing in this science of weather forecasting is 0%???

[cycloneye]

Great One you are gone

[Huckster]

The other best track from Charley has charley at cat5. Also Evidence suggest Ivan was 135mph at landfall in Florida/AL

c. Best track for hurricane Charley

Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat.
(°N) Lon.
(°W)
09 / 1200 11.4 59.2 1010 30 tropical depression
09 / 1800 11.7 61.1 1009 30 "
10 / 0000 12.2 63.2 1009 30 "
10 / 0600 12.9 65.3 1007 35 tropical storm
10 / 1200 13.8 67.6 1004 40 "
10 / 1800 14.9 69.8 1000 45 "
11 / 0000 15.6 71.8 999 55 "
11 / 0600 16.0 73.7 999 55 "
11 / 1200 16.3 75.4 995 60 "
11 / 1800 16.7 76.8 993 65 hurricane
12 / 0000 17.4 78.1 992 65 "
12 / 0600 18.2 79.3 988 75 "
12 / 1200 19.2 80.7 984 80 "
12 / 1800 20.5 81.6 980 90 "
13 / 0000 21.7 82.2 976 90 "
13 / 0600 23.0 82.6 966 105 "
13 / 1200 24.4 82.9 969 110 "
13 / 1400 24.9 82.8 965 115 "
13 / 1700 25.7 82.5 954 130 "
13 / 1800 26.1 82.4 947 140 "
14 / 0000 28.1 81.6 970 80 "
14 / 0600 30.1 80.8 993 75 "
14 / 1200 32.3 79.7 988 65 "
14 / 1800 34.5 78.1 1000 60 tropical storm
15 / 0000 36.9 75.9 1012 40 extratropical
15 / 0600 39.3 73.8 1014 35 "
15 / 1200 41.2 71.1 1018 30 "
15 / 1800 merged with front
13 / 0430 22.7 82.6 966 105 landfall on south coast ofCubanear Playa del Cajio
13 / 1945 26.6 82.2 941 140 landfall near Cayo Costa, FL, and minimum pressure
13 /2045 26.9 82.1 941 140 Landfall near Punta Gorda, FL
14 / 1400 33.0 79.4 992 70 landfall near Cape Romain, SC
14 / 1600 33.8 78.7 997 65 landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC

Where did you quote this from? 140 kts would indeed be cat. 5, but that does not agree with the best track data from any source I know of, including TPC or Unisys.

[P.K.]

Great One you are gone

lol - Even I can notice these posts now.

[cycloneye]

The other best track from Charley has charley at cat5. Also Evidence suggest Ivan was 135mph at landfall in Florida/AL

c. Best track for hurricane Charley

Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat.
(°N) Lon.
(°W)
09 / 1200 11.4 59.2 1010 30 tropical depression
09 / 1800 11.7 61.1 1009 30 "
10 / 0000 12.2 63.2 1009 30 "
10 / 0600 12.9 65.3 1007 35 tropical storm
10 / 1200 13.8 67.6 1004 40 "
10 / 1800 14.9 69.8 1000 45 "
11 / 0000 15.6 71.8 999 55 "
11 / 0600 16.0 73.7 999 55 "
11 / 1200 16.3 75.4 995 60 "
11 / 1800 16.7 76.8 993 65 hurricane
12 / 0000 17.4 78.1 992 65 "
12 / 0600 18.2 79.3 988 75 "
12 / 1200 19.2 80.7 984 80 "
12 / 1800 20.5 81.6 980 90 "
13 / 0000 21.7 82.2 976 90 "
13 / 0600 23.0 82.6 966 105 "
13 / 1200 24.4 82.9 969 110 "
13 / 1400 24.9 82.8 965 115 "
13 / 1700 25.7 82.5 954 130 "
13 / 1800 26.1 82.4 947 140 "
14 / 0000 28.1 81.6 970 80 "
14 / 0600 30.1 80.8 993 75 "
14 / 1200 32.3 79.7 988 65 "
14 / 1800 34.5 78.1 1000 60 tropical storm
15 / 0000 36.9 75.9 1012 40 extratropical
15 / 0600 39.3 73.8 1014 35 "
15 / 1200 41.2 71.1 1018 30 "
15 / 1800 merged with front
13 / 0430 22.7 82.6 966 105 landfall on south coast ofCubanear Playa del Cajio
13 / 1945 26.6 82.2 941 140 landfall near Cayo Costa, FL, and minimum pressure
13 /2045 26.9 82.1 941 140 Landfall near Punta Gorda, FL
14 / 1400 33.0 79.4 992 70 landfall near Cape Romain, SC
14 / 1600 33.8 78.7 997 65 landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC

Where did you quote this from? 140 kts would indeed be cat. 5, but that does not agree with the best track data from any source I know of, including TPC or Unisys.

Disregard that information because that poster is a troll and now is gone from here.

[Derek Ortt]

There is no evidence that Ivan was a cat 4. Ivan was a marginal 3 and it almost was declared to be a 100KT hurricane instead of 105KT. Many at TPC wanted 100KT, very marginal cat 3 at landfall.

The main question about Charley is merely for scientific debate. That 148KT was in the SE quad. Perhaps there may have been a slightly higher wind in the NE quad, which due to the heading of ~25 degrees was still the RFQ. Also of interest is that in Cuba, the surface winds were HIGHER than the FL winds (also from Pasch et al).

One other point of interest is that the H-wind of Andrew yielded a surface wind of 153KT (Dunion et al, 2003, Landsea et al 2004). This was based upon 162KT at FL. Therefore, a wind in the 135-140KT range is not unreasonable since their convective activity and ldeepening at the coast are of a comparable nature

[Stormsfury]

Dead giveaway to advanced kookism 401...

not even a good attempt at forgery ....

Nice try, bozo...

The other best track from Charley has charley at cat5. Also Evidence suggest Ivan was 135mph at landfall in Florida/AL

c. Best track for hurricane Charley

Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat.
(°N) Lon.
(°W)
09 / 1200 11.4 59.2 1010 30 tropical depression
09 / 1800 11.7 61.1 1009 30 "
10 / 0000 12.2 63.2 1009 30 "
10 / 0600 12.9 65.3 1007 35 tropical storm
10 / 1200 13.8 67.6 1004 40 "
10 / 1800 14.9 69.8 1000 45 "
11 / 0000 15.6 71.8 999 55 "
11 / 0600 16.0 73.7 999 55 "
11 / 1200 16.3 75.4 995 60 "
11 / 1800 16.7 76.8 993 65 hurricane
12 / 0000 17.4 78.1 992 65 "
12 / 0600 18.2 79.3 988 75 "
12 / 1200 19.2 80.7 984 80 "
12 / 1800 20.5 81.6 980 90 "
13 / 0000 21.7 82.2 976 90 "
13 / 0600 23.0 82.6 966 105 "
13 / 1200 24.4 82.9 969 110 "
13 / 1400 24.9 82.8 965 115 "
13 / 1700 25.7 82.5 954 130 "
13 / 1800 26.1 82.4 947 140 "
14 / 0000 28.1 81.6 970 80 "
14 / 0600 30.1 80.8 993 75 "
14 / 1200 32.3 79.7 988 65 "
14 / 1800 34.5 78.1 1000 60 tropical storm
15 / 0000 36.9 75.9 1012 40 extratropical
15 / 0600 39.3 73.8 1014 35 "
15 / 1200 41.2 71.1 1018 30 "
15 / 1800 merged with front
13 / 0430 22.7 82.6 966 105 landfall on south coast ofCubanear Playa del Cajio
13 / 1945 26.6 82.2 941 140 landfall near Cayo Costa, FL, and minimum pressure
13 /2045 26.9 82.1 941 140 Landfall near Punta Gorda, FL
14 / 1400 33.0 79.4 992 70 landfall near Cape Romain, SC
14 / 1600 33.8 78.7 997 65 landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC

[Derek Ortt]

knowing GO, I'm surprised he didnt have charley as a 3 in SC

[Stormsfury]

knowing GO, I'm surprised he didnt have charley as a 3 in SC

LOL ... yeah, all of 30 kt peak gust here ... highest gust I found was buoy 41004 OFFSHORE at 64 kts...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/text/PSHCHS_08162004.txt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

[yoda]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

True. But he has been banned here countless times and he continues here. No need to be nice when someone does that.

[Stormsfury]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

Chances of that happening are about as good as me dating Paris Hilton, Tara Reid, and my avatar at any time in my life.

next.

SF

[cycloneye]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

True. But he has been banned here countless times and he continues here. No need to be nice when someone does that.

Sorry but your friend is not nice at all.

[yoda]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

Chances of that happening are about as good as me dating Paris Hilton, Tara Reid, and my avatar at any time in my life.

next.

SF

Hmmm...