Wk E-Nino ATL winters: much above avg snow 2/23-6 of ~1 in.

[LarryWx]

Here is the tally of Atlanta snow/sleet for 2/21+ for the 13 weak El Nino winters I've identified:

1977-78: 0.3" 2/21
1976-77: none
1969-70: none
1968-69: none
1963-64: 0.3" 2/25
1951-52: 3.9" 2/26
1939-40: none
1923-24: 4.0" 3/13-14
1913-14: 1.9" 2/25
1911-12: none
1904-05: none
1900-01: 4.7" 2/23
1885-86: none (although on 2/27 snow stuck in Gainseville/Harlem)

So, the average ATL snow/sleet for 2/21+ ALONE for weak El Nino winters has been a well above normal (for 2/21+ ALONE) 1.2". This compares to the historic average of all winters of only ~0.4-0.5" for 2/21+ alone. So, it is nearly three times the historic average! Six of the 13 winters (46%) had 0.3"+.

***Much more striking to me is the clustering of snow/sleet events that occurred during the very short 2/23-2/26 period. Four of the 13 winters (31%) had 0.3"+ just during that four day period alone with three of the four having ~2-5"! The average snow/sleet for 2/23-26 alone was 0.8", which is FAR above historic averages of no more than ~0.1" for non-weak El Nino winters. To put this into perspective, keep in mind that for the entire winter, ATL's average snow/sleet since the late 1800's has been only ~1.5"!***

Neg. NAO periods during weak El Nino winters have been conducive for above average snow/sleet for ATL, especially during the late winter. With the NAO now negative and with some projections of it going strongly negative for late this month, I'm not about to give up on a measurable ATL snow or sleet event by mid-March and especially 2/23-3/5 although I'm not predicting it yet. It will also be interesting to see if the 2/23-26 period results in anything. No real threats at the surface for snow/sleet are showing up on any model for 2/23-26 as of now although it is still way too early to expect reliability and that total period is really only in range of the unreliable GFS.

[donsutherland1]

Great info., Larry. I very much hope that Atlanta will be able to harvest at least some of winter's remaining snowfall before the season ends. Certainly, the statistics (almost 50% of weak El Niño years!) are quite encouraging.

[LarryWx]

Don, thanks.

[DLI2k5]

Hey there Larry! I always appreciate your posts and the information they provide, always insightful! I would love to know your thoughts on the talk on this and some other wx boards about an overrunning event this upcoming weekend in the SE and all the discussion about something big happening on Feb. 23 -25 i believe. Do you think this will possibly give the SE the snow we've been hoping for all winter long? I would greatly welcome any accumulating snow we could get!

[krysof]

not with this winter's pattern, your temperatures need to drop considerable for any snow, if the northern mid-atlantic has temperatures too warm for snow, why do u think the south will be cold enough in the future?

[JenyEliza]

not with this winter's pattern, your temperatures need to drop considerable for any snow, if the northern mid-atlantic has temperatures too warm for snow, why do u think the south will be cold enough in the future?

You've obviously never wintered in Atlanta, have you? You don't understand that in late winter we can be 75 and sunshine one day, and the next day 29, sleet/snow/freezing rain--with accumulations.

I've lived here since 1968. I've seen it, and more than once.

Google search "Snow Jam 1982 + Atlanta". Read up. Then come back with more of your negativity.

Your doom-n-gloom prognostications for areas you've never even VISITED, much less lived in, is getting very old and tiresome.

Is OFA back up yet?

[Brent]

not with this winter's pattern, your temperatures need to drop considerable for any snow, if the northern mid-atlantic has temperatures too warm for snow, why do u think the south will be cold enough in the future?

You've obviously never wintered in Atlanta, have you? You don't understand that in late winter we can be 75 and sunshine one day, and the next day 29, sleet/snow/freezing rain--with accumulations.

I've lived here since 1968. I've seen it, and more than once.

Google search "Snow Jam 1982 + Atlanta". Read up. Then come back with more of your negativity.

Your doom-n-gloom prognostications for areas you've never even VISITED, much less lived in, is getting very old and tiresome.

Is OFA back up yet?

JenyEliza=God!

[JenyEliza]

not with this winter's pattern, your temperatures need to drop considerable for any snow, if the northern mid-atlantic has temperatures too warm for snow, why do u think the south will be cold enough in the future?

You've obviously never wintered in Atlanta, have you? You don't understand that in late winter we can be 75 and sunshine one day, and the next day 29, sleet/snow/freezing rain--with accumulations.

I've lived here since 1968. I've seen it, and more than once.

Google search "Snow Jam 1982 + Atlanta". Read up. Then come back with more of your negativity.

Your doom-n-gloom prognostications for areas you've never even VISITED, much less lived in, is getting very old and tiresome.

Is OFA back up yet?

JenyEliza=God!

Thank you!

[LarryWx]

Hey there Larry! I always appreciate your posts and the information they provide, always insightful! I would love to know your thoughts on the talk on this and some other wx boards about an overrunning event this upcoming weekend in the SE and all the discussion about something big happening on Feb. 23 -25 i believe. Do you think this will possibly give the SE the snow we've been hoping for all winter long? I would greatly welcome any accumulating snow we could get!

Thank you!

1) Regarding this weekend, please see the post I just made about 2/21 vs. 1/29. I'm not at all excited for Atlanta right now in total contrast to how I was for 1/29 at about this far in advance. I'm really only emphasizing my area in that post and not the Carolina's. However, I'd say it is far less of a threat even for Columbia than the last one. Again, please see that post for my reasoning. I certainly see no snow threat from it at this time.

2) Beyond 2/21, it is simply too far away to even speculate on anything specific. I don't yet see a speciifc threat for the deep south. Even if I did, I know that the timing and many other things would almost always change. Actually, the model consensus is still fairly mild for the middle to end of next week. All I can say is that later this week, I'll start looking for later next week into early March to see if a specific threat does show on the models. I don't like to look more than about seven days in advance due to model unreliability. The weak El Nino analogs in combination with a strongly -NAO do favor snow over ice IF a winter event were to actually occur in ATL 2/23+. (I'm not talking about NC). Five of 13 weak El Nino winters resulted in measurable wintry precip. here on or after 2/23, a pretty respectable % (38%).

[LarryWx]

I'm bumping this due to the SE winter storm being depicted by the 0Z MON 2/21 ECMWF. Per the GFS ensemble charts, the NAO is now VERY strongly negative (-3) and is projected to go off the charts to severely negative territory (below -4!). This tells me that when taking the very strong -NAO into account combined with the weak El Nino winter late season snow/sleet stats I've compiled in this thread, I'm more interested than normal for 7 days out. The exact model solution isn't that important at this stage. The idea is that there is significant potential when considering all of these factors.