Something's Brewing........(Joe Bastardi)

[Planetsnow]

METEOROLOGICAL MAYHEM DEVELOPING AS TWIN BLOCKING RIDGES, GREENLAND AND WESTERN CANADA SET STAGE FOR WINTER'S WILDEST FOR MUCH OF NATION.

First of all, the GFS number fiasco watch for the Northeast, with New York City as the example of this, in the Thursday through Monday period, has been changed to a FIASCO WARNING. Recall that yesterday (I will leave all posts since Sunday below) the model had the 5-day temperature ending Monday (starting Thursday) at normal. My forecast is 7 or more below. The newest run is now down to a little over 2 below normal in that period. So we will watch it again.

Actually, because of the storm (and it was a storm yesterday with interior ice and snow and coastal heavy rain) it managed to pull out the Monday max in many places it had. However, it wasn't a west wind partly sunny day that did it as 0.50 - 1.00 inch of precipitation demonstrated.

Side note: I was stunned at the difference between my house and downtown State College (four miles away) yesterday, where apparently it snowed and sleeted quite a bit harder and longer than where I live. In fact, while all the inch of snow I had was gone by 4:30 p.m., at 6:00 p.m. there was still plenty on the ground in town, where it was obvious shoveling and plowing had to be done.

See snow geese, even I suffer.

By the way, the temperature error over the 5-day period starting tomorrow (actually, it will be more like a 5- to 10-day period for the Plains and Lakes) won't be as great as the Northeast, but it will be there. Ideas that I was reading about in some of the energy releases that said no cold air was coming and that this weekend would go above normal in the Midwest are in disagreement with me. Not only is cold air coming, but a snowstorm is also coming from the system that will unload on Southern California Friday.

I have no major changes on that idea. Let's review. A second cold shot with some light to moderate snow comes through the Lakes Friday to the Northeast Saturday. Sneaky snow of an inch or two could fall to the Mason Dixon line. The air mass is so cold that upwind Chesapeake and Delaware bays and southern New England could see an event similar to post-January 22nd storm where cold front caused problems. It should not get to the Carolinas.

Snow and ice break out between I-40 and I-70 Saturday night and Sunday, and a storm runs to the Ohio Valley Monday with a new center developing on the North Carolina coast then going east-northeastward. The system should be a widespread 3- to 6-inch producer from the Ohio River to I-90 midwest and probably from central Virginia to southern New England Monday with local amounts to 10. There will be very cold maxes, perhaps 10-20 below normal, in the snow and ice area north of the track. This idea will have to be adjusted with time, but it looks like the storm is coming with plenty of cold air around, and I simply don't have any major idea change from earlier on this.

Bitter cold into Europe later this week with snow likely in London by early next week says, yes, the block is forming. Big Dog from yesterday stays on today. Why? I think the correlation of what blocks like this can do has to be pounded into the ground. Five to ten days after the block appears, major storms have formed in the East, and I am not talking about what is going on next week. Possible idea of evolution - another system beats California silly as eastern system exits early next week. This cuts under to the southern Plains then moves slowly eastward, waiting for the jet to turn southeastward over the western Canadian ridge. Southeast ridging occurs, but it is short-lived due to outrageous negative NAO. The Canadian vortex splits with a piece going northwestward due to a ridge over Greenland, with the other piece diving southeastward for the southern branch...we are talking now about late next week. The mean trof off the East Coast then takes off eastward, while a piece is left to be forced back west, then southwestward toward a developing new trof over the East that matures the weekend of the 26th or perhaps beyond. This is the kind of thing that can lead to an extreme pressure difference event. With major trofs locked into western Europe and the Far East, along with the Gulf of Alaska, odds are ridging over the East next week, if it can occur, a.) is short-lived and b.) has plenty of high pressure around over the north. Previous posts set this up. The situation setup started yesterday, and remember, it was this column that opined, in a similar fashion, on February 14, 2001, about big goings on in the East for the 2- to 3-week period down the road for the March 2001 deepening. I see similarities developing already.

BIG DOG REMAINS on to pound home another point...the following month with such things as sudden SOI drops, or major NAO drops, have been cold in the East and South.

The Plains are now into a winter pattern that will produce colder and snowier than average weather over the next 10-15 days for much of the area. The greatest threat of late-season freeze to deep South Texas is still at least ten days off. The southern and central Rockies are sharing in all this, too. (Coldest, snowiest pattern of winter, in relation to normal.)

The Pacific Northwest and the extreme Southeast are still at the corners here, though both have to be watched for expansion of overall problem areas.

Ciao for now.

[CaptinCrunch]

The Plains are now into a winter pattern that will produce colder and snowier than average weather over the next 10-15 days for much of the area. The greatest threat of late-season freeze to deep South Texas is still at least ten days off. The southern and central Rockies are sharing in all this, too. (Coldest, snowiest pattern of winter, in relation to normal.)

I sure hope so, but we will see?

[Skywatch_NC]

So Bastardi is saying in effect that the Carolinas may not get much if anything in the way of wintry precip in this weekend's event?

Eric

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Again, Feel it to believe it. True, Joe hit the bullseye big time with the Christmas snowstorm down here. But since then he has busted big time with the "true cold"shots down this way.

I hope he is right because in a month and half we are stuck in the 80's and above till early October.

[DLI2k5]

So Bastardi is saying in effect that the Carolinas may not get much if anything in the way of wintry precip in this weekend's event?

Eric

Sure as heck sounds like what Joe is saying, we in the Carolinas get nothing this weekend! But, at least with you being in Raleigh, you folks got some snow, not much but some is better than none at all. I live in Columbia, SC and we got nothing but rain and ice, that's it, so i envy you right now! Hopefully next week will give us a chance for some snow around Feb. 23-25, keeping fingers crossed!

[chadtm80]

Admin Note/Reminder: You can only post JB articles if they are from his FREE section. Pay articles may NOT be posted. (this is his free colum posted here just wanted to remind everyone)

[KWT]

Bitter cold into Europe later this week with snow likely in London by early next week says, yes, the block is forming. Big Dog from yesterday stays on today.

Yes please Joe.on the other side of the atlantic i'm now gearing up for a fairly major cold spell for U.K standards,infact its just about as good as they come to be honest,with all models giving backing for a northerly followed by a North-easterly/easterly,always the coldest direction for cold.

some real decent northen blocking occurs as the jet stream plows alot of energy towards the southern arm allowing some very decent northen blocking to take place:

http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn1681.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn1921.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn2281.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn2521.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn2881.gif
http://64.246.48.81/wz/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

and to sum up,U.K is looking more and more likely to see a 1-2 week cold spell,the worst since 1996,and maybe,just maybe matching 1979...
and considering how mild the u.K has been this winter,it'll certainly be a shock to the system.

[LarryWx]

No offense, but it seems like something's been brewing virtually every day per JB since I started reading him about 4 years ago.

If he didn't say something was brewing, then that would be major news to me!

[Lowpressure]

No offense, but it seems like something's been brewing virtually every day per JB since I started reading him about 4 years ago.

If he didn't say something was brewing, then that would be major news to me!

Agree totally. He is always reaching for the extreme. He did hit the Christmas event quite well, but several major busts before as well as after that event.

[PTrackerLA]

I sure would like to see one more good arctic blast before winter is finished. It feels very spring like today with temps in the mid 70's, hard to believe it's still mid February unless you look at all the brown trees .

[Rainband]

Admin Note/Reminder: You can only post JB articles if they are from his FREE section. Pay articles may NOT be posted. (this is his free colum posted here just wanted to remind everyone)

Was just going to ask about that Chad I was just about to post this in the Lounge

[Scorpion]

I hope for no more cold shots this winter. Im ready for spring .

[ohiostorm]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

[vbhoutex]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

I would just like a BIG SNOW!!!!! Heck, an inch would be exciting!!!

[ohiostorm]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

I would just like a BIG SNOW!!!!! Heck, an inch would be exciting!!!

Well dont think your getting any of mine!!!

[vbhoutex]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

I would just like a BIG SNOW!!!!! Heck, an inch would be exciting!!!

Well dont think your getting any of mine!!!

SNOW HOG!!!

[ohiostorm]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

I would just like a BIG SNOW!!!!! Heck, an inch would be exciting!!!

Well dont think your getting any of mine!!!

SNOW HOG!!!

HAHAHA

[BlizzzardMan]

I want one more big snow before spring hits.

I'm hoping for "A" big snow before spring hits! New England has taken it all this winter! Isn't it bad enough all their sports teams are doing good!!!! Then they have to hog all the snow too!!! Geesh!!! LoL

[storm4u]

we havent taken it all im still below average for the year!! maybe in eastern mass but not here or anywhere else really!

[Miss Mary]

I'll be a snowhog too David!!!

We didn't get nearly as much snowfall this season as I thought we would.

So like Luke stated, I also want one more big snowfall! Yeah I do!!!

Mary