Derek Ortt wrote:Charley likely was the worst case for Orlando. A near cat 5 coming in only 4.5 hours before hitting Orlando. What would have made it worse is if Charley would have been the size of Ivan as it would not have weakened as quickly; thus, would have been a strong 2 or maybe even a weak 3 in Orlando, which may have leveled the city then with gusts well over 140, approaching 150, instead of merely to 105 m.p.h.
A hit from the east is less likely and the effects are not as severe, as shown by Jeanne where the max gusts in Orlando were closer to 75 m.p.h.
I greatly respect Derek and am well aware of his extensive meteorlogical knowledge. But I disagree that Charley was the worst case scenario for the Orlando area. Using Jeanne's effects as an example of a hit from the east being less severe is like comparing apples to oranges. Charley's central core moved directly over the city, while Jeanne passed far to the south by some 60 miles. If a category 3 or 4 storm took Jeanne's (or Frances's) trajectory, shifted 60 miles to the north, we would be looking at a damage scenario even worse than what Charley produced.
A study completed shortly after Andrew calculated that an Andrew-strength storm (at the time estimated as a 140mph hurricane) moving inland at 15 mph from a Canaveral / Melbourne landfall would bring Orlando winds as high as 130mph.....far more intense than what we experienced in Charley.
What determines that a hit from the east is less likely? It had been 44 years since a Charley-type scenario played out across Central Florida.....we had 2 hits from the east in just 3 weeks last year. It was only luck (for Orlando, that is!) that brought those landfalls just a few miles south of where the storms would have brought much higherwinds intothe metro area.
--Lou