Tropical Cyclone Olaf (19P)

[senorpepr]

Wow... Olaf deepens further. Officially 165mph (1-min avg)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 171.1W
AT 160600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125
KNOTS, DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES
OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME LOSS OF EYE
DEFINITION IN RECENT EIR IMAGES. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS ENCIRCLING
THE EYE REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C]. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH AN LG EYE IN CDG SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=PT=6.5,
BUT CI HELD AT 7.0: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS OLAF ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 14.9S 169.2W MOV SE 12KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 17.1S 168.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 18.8S 166.8W MOV SE 8KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 165.6W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
161430 UTC.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully the most strongest part wont hit directly the islands as it is pararell to them on the movement but they will anyway get plenty of rain and wind.

[cycloneye]

Wow very impressive cyclone when you look at it from all angles and from the eye to the outflow.

Does anyone has a record about past cat 5 cyclones that formed in the Southern Hemisphere?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B19 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 16/1426 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 169.9W
AT 161200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

EYE COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS ENCIRCLING THE EYE
REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C]. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH
AN LG EYE IN CMG SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=PT=6.5, BUT CI HELD AT
7.0: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS OLAF ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 15.9S 168.0W MOV SE 15KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 18.3S 166.6W MOV SE 13KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 19.9S 165.2W MOV SE 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 164.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
162030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TC HETA 2004:


TC ERIKA 2003:


TC ZOE 2002:


These are some examples of Cat. 5 tropical cyclones over the last few years. It seems like tropical cyclones are more likely to reach Cat. 5 in the South Pacific than in the Atlantic Ocean.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Sandy for the info about cat 5's at Southern Hemisphere that I was asking for.

[P.K.]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/arc/XTAU

50hPa drop in 3 (Yes three) hours

[HURAKAN]

TC Olaf weakens a little bit, but still carries a big punch.

[HURAKAN]

[img]http://mappoint.msn.com/(cg1gql55q2if5245ht0yer55)/MPSvc.aspx?MPMtd=M&L=WLD&C=-14.21749%2c-169.5514&A=250&S=405%2c320&PN=1113520764&P=|4ecd|[/img]

These poor, little islands, which form the easternmost part of the Samoa Islands, were the ones that received the hardest part of the cyclone. TC Olaf passed over or to the west of the islands. They received the SE part of the hurricane, which in case of the Southern Hemisphere, is where the strongest winds are confined. This should be the most devastated area, and "Zone of Desaster" should be declared by President Bush at any minute

[Aslkahuna]

Assuming of course that the islands are part of American Samoa.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Assuming of course that the islands are part of American Samoa.

Steve

Yes, they are part of American Samoa.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B20 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 16/2046 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.7W
AT 161800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

SLIGHT EYE COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS ENCIRCLING
THE EYE REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C]. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH AN MG EYE IN CMG SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=6.5.
PT=6.0, FT BASED ON DT: T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS OLAF MOVES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 17.0S 167.4W MOV SE 15KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 19.0S 166.0W MOV SE 13KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 20.6S 164.6W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 22.0S 163.5W MOV SE 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
170230 UTC.

[P.K.]

Edit - Sorry double post.

[HURAKAN]

Here's Olaf showing a beautiful rounded structure.

[yoda]

Wow... scary lookin...

[HURAKAN]

Olaf continues to pack a big punch, and is still holding to its cat. 5 status.

[frankthetank]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.500m.jpg

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.250m.jpg

take a peek

[cycloneye]

PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 18.5S4 165.7W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 165.7W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 21.1S4 164.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 23.9S4 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.4S2 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 28.9S9 162.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z6 AMSR-E PASS DEPICT
A STRONG SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD ASYMMETRY. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z7 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
NNNN


Olaf still very strong at 140 mph.

[Brent]

I'd be getting my tail out of the path QUICKLY if I saw that.

So was American Samoa spared? The media has done some brief reports on it and it looked pretty bad.

[cycloneye]

I'd be getting my tail out of the path QUICKLY if I saw that.

So was American Samoa spared? The media has done some brief reports on it and it looked pretty bad.

Thankfully Samoa was spared the worse of Cyclone.Damage occured at Samoa islands but it could haved been much worse.