Updates on this weekend?

[Jrodd312]

Anyone?

[Persepone]

Hi. Don't know where you are...

Here's the NWS discussion for Taunton Area (CT-RI-MA-NH areas listed)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION


National Weather Service Taunton MA
255 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2005

Short term (tonight through Friday night): High clouds have been spilling over into central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this afternoon on the perphiery of the jet as seen on water vapor satellite. Some diurnal clouds have also developed over the Connecticut River Valley where the skies were clear earlier today.

Most of the short term model suite is in pretty good agreement this afternoon with respect to the development of an inverted surface trough, mainly a reflection of an upper level short wave along the south coast tonight and Friday. This will allow snow showers to develop off Cape Cod and work westward across most of the region, mainly north of Providence and Willimantic. The models, especially the nam suite, have been consistent with this development so have continued with this trend.

Will introduce a chance of snow showers mainly after midnight tonight as clouds continue to lower and thicken. With lack of support and moisture to work with, as most of the upper energy remains south of the region, not expecting a lot of snow with this. Will go with an inch or less for all areas, just about an inch for the Cape and islands and right along the east coast. Will briefly carry likely pops for the Cape and islands around midday on Friday, then the trough quickly breaks down Friday afternoon and evening. Expect snow showers to end by midnight Friday night, but skies will remain partly cloudy as a weak ridge builds across Northern New England through the predawn hours Saturday.

Have leaned temps and pops toward the nam met mos guidance, though the fwc and mav temp guidance was close. Expect a chill down Friday night, with lows in the single numbers and teens.


Long term (Saturday through Thursday):
High pressure builds overhead Sat, Then models continue to show a
strong arctic front pushing through Southern New England Sat night
and early Sun. Dynamics are strong despite limited moisture,
Especially on gfs which is more aggressive than nam, And based upon
its consistency we will keep chance pops and place higher values in
northern zones Sat night. Good shot of cold follows Sun.

Attention then turns to potential coastal development Mon into Tue as main surface low heads through Eastern Great Lakes. It still appears that most of the precipitation will occur Sun night into Mon, from the initial shot of strong warm advection ahead of the parent low. cross sections and temperature profiles suggest this will be in the form of snow for most of Southern New England, even down to Cape Cod and islands. Strongest lift is centered below max snow growth region, so while we will be dealing with a "warm" atmosphere there is very strong low and mid level frontogenesis and deep moisture present for a good dump of snow on the front end of this system. most likely scenario would be for a widespread advisory level event, with perhaps low-End warning criteria being reached in SW NH and NW/N central MA.

For the second part of this event later Mon into Tue, we still have a lot of variety among medium range model solutions so confidence is not overly high. We have noticed 06z/12z gfs coming more into agreement with 16/12z and 17/00z ecmwf, bringing a weaker coastal low near Cape Cod and islands late Mon and into Gulf Of Maine Mon night. There are still differences however between ecmwf and gfs ensembles however, with ecmwf ensembles a bit flatter with upper flow over eastern states and more confluence over New England, perhaps trending toward a more southern track.

Best course of action is to continue to favor a secondary track over Cape Cod late Mon and into Gulf Of Maine Mon night. We should see precipitation redevelop in advance of this low late Mon, but by then cross sections show significant low level warming has taken place about as far N as i-90, meaning second half of this event could very well be rain S of Mass Pike and mixed rain/snow/ice farther N. amounts are also in question as all significant lift has already exited region by Mon night, we could very well be left with lighter precipitation (drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow). Either way we do think a transition back to snow will occur on backside of this system by Tue morning as it heads to maritimes.

Dry weather is then expected Wed and Thu as high pressure builds into region. Next southern stream system should be well S of region Thu.


Aviation:
Mainly high clouds across central and eastern sections this afternoon
and stratocumulus development around 4kft over the Connecticut
Valley. Will see mid level clouds push across the region early
tongiht, Then will lower and thicken overnight with snow showers
developing. Could see some mvfr visibilities in snow showers after
midnight tonight, Then mvfr-Ifr ceilings toward Friday morning.
expect lowest conditions along the east coast, Cape Cod And the
islands during Friday.


In the short term, winds/seas below small craft criteria this
afternoon. As trough develops, Expect northwest winds to pick up
during Friday to small craft for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Narragansett Bay. With cold air advection working across the waters
after the trough breaks down Friday night, Gusts to 35 knots
expected on the outer open waters and the eastern areas of Cape Cod
Bay, So have headlined possible gales for those areas. Will also
headline possible small craft conditions on the remaining waters
Friday night.

In the longer term, small craft advisory conditions are expected behind the arctic front Sat night into Sun morning, then winds and seas should subside quickly as high pressure builds over New England. Another round of small craft advisory conditions are probable Mon into Tue as coastal low forms over mid Atlantic and tracks over SE New England. There is some potential for gales to develop ahead of this system, especially along E MA coast where gradient will be tighter, but right now model consensus is for system to become more well developed after it passes Southern New England.


Box watches/warnings/advisories:
CT, None.
MA, None.
NH, None.
RI, None.
marine, Gale warning May be required Fri night anz231-250-254-255.

[Jrodd312]

Hi. Don't know where you are...

Here's the NWS discussion for Taunton Area (CT-RI-MA-NH areas listed)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION


National Weather Service Taunton MA
255 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2005

Short term (tonight through Friday night): High clouds have been spilling over into central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this afternoon on the perphiery of the jet as seen on water vapor satellite. Some diurnal clouds have also developed over the Connecticut River Valley where the skies were clear earlier today.

Most of the short term model suite is in pretty good agreement this afternoon with respect to the development of an inverted surface trough, mainly a reflection of an upper level short wave along the south coast tonight and Friday. This will allow snow showers to develop off Cape Cod and work westward across most of the region, mainly north of Providence and Willimantic. The models, especially the nam suite, have been consistent with this development so have continued with this trend.

Will introduce a chance of snow showers mainly after midnight tonight as clouds continue to lower and thicken. With lack of support and moisture to work with, as most of the upper energy remains south of the region, not expecting a lot of snow with this. Will go with an inch or less for all areas, just about an inch for the Cape and islands and right along the east coast. Will briefly carry likely pops for the Cape and islands around midday on Friday, then the trough quickly breaks down Friday afternoon and evening. Expect snow showers to end by midnight Friday night, but skies will remain partly cloudy as a weak ridge builds across Northern New England through the predawn hours Saturday.

Have leaned temps and pops toward the nam met mos guidance, though the fwc and mav temp guidance was close. Expect a chill down Friday night, with lows in the single numbers and teens.


Long term (Saturday through Thursday):
High pressure builds overhead Sat, Then models continue to show a
strong arctic front pushing through Southern New England Sat night
and early Sun. Dynamics are strong despite limited moisture,
Especially on gfs which is more aggressive than nam, And based upon
its consistency we will keep chance pops and place higher values in
northern zones Sat night. Good shot of cold follows Sun.

Attention then turns to potential coastal development Mon into Tue as main surface low heads through Eastern Great Lakes. It still appears that most of the precipitation will occur Sun night into Mon, from the initial shot of strong warm advection ahead of the parent low. cross sections and temperature profiles suggest this will be in the form of snow for most of Southern New England, even down to Cape Cod and islands. Strongest lift is centered below max snow growth region, so while we will be dealing with a "warm" atmosphere there is very strong low and mid level frontogenesis and deep moisture present for a good dump of snow on the front end of this system. most likely scenario would be for a widespread advisory level event, with perhaps low-End warning criteria being reached in SW NH and NW/N central MA.

For the second part of this event later Mon into Tue, we still have a lot of variety among medium range model solutions so confidence is not overly high. We have noticed 06z/12z gfs coming more into agreement with 16/12z and 17/00z ecmwf, bringing a weaker coastal low near Cape Cod and islands late Mon and into Gulf Of Maine Mon night. There are still differences however between ecmwf and gfs ensembles however, with ecmwf ensembles a bit flatter with upper flow over eastern states and more confluence over New England, perhaps trending toward a more southern track.

Best course of action is to continue to favor a secondary track over Cape Cod late Mon and into Gulf Of Maine Mon night. We should see precipitation redevelop in advance of this low late Mon, but by then cross sections show significant low level warming has taken place about as far N as i-90, meaning second half of this event could very well be rain S of Mass Pike and mixed rain/snow/ice farther N. amounts are also in question as all significant lift has already exited region by Mon night, we could very well be left with lighter precipitation (drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow). Either way we do think a transition back to snow will occur on backside of this system by Tue morning as it heads to maritimes.

Dry weather is then expected Wed and Thu as high pressure builds into region. Next southern stream system should be well S of region Thu.


Aviation:
Mainly high clouds across central and eastern sections this afternoon
and stratocumulus development around 4kft over the Connecticut
Valley. Will see mid level clouds push across the region early
tongiht, Then will lower and thicken overnight with snow showers
developing. Could see some mvfr visibilities in snow showers after
midnight tonight, Then mvfr-Ifr ceilings toward Friday morning.
expect lowest conditions along the east coast, Cape Cod And the
islands during Friday.


In the short term, winds/seas below small craft criteria this
afternoon. As trough develops, Expect northwest winds to pick up
during Friday to small craft for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Narragansett Bay. With cold air advection working across the waters
after the trough breaks down Friday night, Gusts to 35 knots
expected on the outer open waters and the eastern areas of Cape Cod
Bay, So have headlined possible gales for those areas. Will also
headline possible small craft conditions on the remaining waters
Friday night.

In the longer term, small craft advisory conditions are expected behind the arctic front Sat night into Sun morning, then winds and seas should subside quickly as high pressure builds over New England. Another round of small craft advisory conditions are probable Mon into Tue as coastal low forms over mid Atlantic and tracks over SE New England. There is some potential for gales to develop ahead of this system, especially along E MA coast where gradient will be tighter, but right now model consensus is for system to become more well developed after it passes Southern New England.


Box watches/warnings/advisories:
CT, None.
MA, None.
NH, None.
RI, None.
marine, Gale warning May be required Fri night anz231-250-254-255.

Hey persepone thanks but im near philly.