Pattern Similar To Mar 01... Will It Work Out This Time ????

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Some remember, maybe some do not but... as we were coming to the half way point of FEB 01 an interesting pattern was setting up, one that had not been seen in a long time, with a tanking NAO and AO, and strong PNA... All three at their respective maxes, with a split stream and mega amplification after a sudden SOI flip...

Well my friends low and behold its starting to look as if the same pattern is trying to set up, of course some (myself included) remember this storm as a mega bust (2-4 ft forecasted, 2-4" inches result)... Others in New England got more that 2 feet more than what was expected...

I know many are looking at the President's Day storm right now as everyone should as the potential is there for a decent 6"+ storm for a large area, but I think ultimatley we are looking at a pattern where three major storms could nail the same area, the last of which, having the potential of the March 01' storm... as "the rubberband" may break...

Just some food for thought.

[krysof]

would the president's day storm be one of the three you are describing if it materializes?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Presidents Day strom would be the first of 3 for the ten day period... Yes, I'm not very excited for PD3 yet though...

[krysof]

why?

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Any time the GFS is showing what I think will happen with a strom I drop it... lol

Seriously though, I'm thinking the storm (PD3) may come too far north, places such as Washington, Baltimore, Philly and even New York in my oppinion (at least at this point) may be too far south... The trend all year for every storm since day one was to come further north than anticipated, I have seen nothing that what change that... at least not yet.

[Lowpressure]

Any time the GFS is showing what I think will happen with a strom I drop it... lol

Seriously though, I'm thinking the storm (PD3) may come too far north, places such as Washington, Baltimore, Philly and even New York in my oppinion (at least at this point) may be too far south... The trend all year for every storm since day one was to come further north than anticipated, I have seen nothing that what change that... at least not yet.

This time last year the storm path was similar with most energy going north, then boom, the winter storm that crushed N.C. with 21 inches of thundersnow in places.

[SnowGod]

LOL. The energy you are trying to hype up is basically a wimp. With the PV in retreat, things aren't nearly as promising as you try and make them.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Look at the guidence for the next two weeks, you'll see some pretty impressive analogs from years past...

[SnowGod]

I look at Guidance and am not impressed. Models fail, they have and will continue to fail in this overhyped winter.

Your bias is causing you to overplay the pattern.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I will admit that I do have a slight bias, but I know at leasts in my forecasts that I've always expected this to be a late winter, so I'm not worng... yet... I look at how far the NAO, AO are going to tank and the SOI flip is going to be on the order of 10 points, the PNA is shooting through the roof.. and that my friend is what went wrong in 01' the PNA wasn't positive enough... Look for thisgs to work out this time

[SnowGod]

First of all, WILL the NAO and PNA REALLY do what you expect them to? Really? Changes can occur at the blink of a eye(a few NAO ensembles suggest that the -NAO could be VERY shortlived for example).

The PV is in retreat. Cold air will not be in good supply and at this time of the year, that WILL be huge.

It also has not featured a long substained cold pattern. I can't see it doing it now. 2000-01 was a classic neutral/very weak la nina. They typical favor what March 2001 had, this isn't that signal. You have to look differently.

I am still in the belief, that next winter is going to be the one with big, long cold patterns country wide. But if this winter's pattern can substain a long cold pattern into mid-March, I would be the first one to admit it, but also very surprised.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I'm of the oppinion that as La Nina conditions overwhelm the pattern this year that next winter will be quite warm in the east

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I'm of the oppinion that as La Nina conditions overwhelm the pattern this year that next winter will be quite warm in the east

[Jrodd312]

I'm of the oppinion that as La Nina conditions overwhelm the pattern this year that next winter will be quite warm in the east

Hey Jer not being nosy or anything but when are you going to update the berks cast?? I mean i thought u would now because you are on here. Just curious.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Whoa... sry I am really out of it, the site is being updated now... It should be ready by 10:30

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I started updating it at 5:30 today and completely forgot that I had more to do... I'm very sorry

[Jrodd312]

I started updating it at 5:30 today and completely forgot that I had more to do... I'm very sorry

No problem man i was just curious