Mid-Month Pattern Change Appears Highly Likely

[Jrodd312]

The fact that the PDO went positive in January increases my confidence in the idea that snows will be coming to the East. Using the top 15 ENSO analogs, here are the average figures for February snowfall in select cities based on the PDO:

Code: Select all

         BOS   NYC    DCA
PDO +    18.2  11.5   6.2
PDO -    18.1   7.2   2.4


Moreover, when the PDO was positive, Washington, DC was only 1/3 as likely to see less than 1" of snow in February than when the PDO was negative. New York City was 2 1/2 times more likely to see 10" or more snow for the month.

Nicely done Don!

[krysof]

Maybe there will be something this weekend, but as of now, temperatures are too warm for any snow in the northern mid-atlantic regions. Will the temperatures be colder than it actually says here, http://www.weather.com/activities/homea ... d=USNJ0390

[donsutherland1]

...temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week.
--Krysof

Latest MOS for EWR within range where the MOS is quite accurate:

Code: Select all

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/15/2005  1200 UTC                     
 DT /FEB  15/FEB  16                /FEB  17                /FEB  18
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
 N/X                    44          56          28          43    24


[krysof]

I am intrested weatherwise about predictions and future forecasts and as of now, I believe there may be some snow this weekend or early next week. But what about new jersey?

[Jrodd312]

I am intrested weatherwise about predictions and future forecasts and as of now, I believe there may be some snow this weekend or early next week. But what about new jersey?

Things are starting to look better kysrof. Snows will probably spread to centeral new jersey. Time will tell.

[vbhoutex]

This thread has been cleaned up! Offending parties have been sent warnings. IF THERE IS ANY MORE PERSONAL BICKERING OR NAME CALLING IN THIS THREAD IT WILL BE DEALT WITH SWIFTLY! PLEASE KEEP IT ON THE WEATHER AND THE SUBJECT OF THIS THREAD!!!

[roebear]

Anybody have a good view of the timing for the storm approaching the PA area Sunday night it would be appreciated if you could post an update or direct me to a forum that would.

My daughter, in the Marines, is driving up to PA from the south and I would like to get her heading back to her base before snow hits I-95.

I've done a round trip (1K miles) on I 95 in the snow when we picked up her husband to get him to his base up north to leave for Iraq last year and it wasn't much fun. When southerners drive their SUV's in the snow they seem to turn them into hockey pucks .

[donsutherland1]

Roebear,

This is still very far out, but a spread of the model guidance, Harrisburg should probably begin to see snow around 6 pm +/- 3 hours. I-95 should see the snow maybe just a little later.

Have a great holiday.

[roebear]

Thanks don, 6PM Sunday, guess that means she drives the Jeep!!

Which model do you like best for tracking a storm forecast such as the one we are getting? I'm mostly looking at the NAM.

[Jrodd312]

Thanks don, 6PM Sunday, guess that means she drives the Jeep!!

Which model do you like best for tracking a storm forecast such as the one we are getting? I'm mostly looking at the NAM.

The EURO handles snowstorms best.

[SnowGod]

So much for a big "pattern" change, other than a Greenland block, the PV is in retreat. The bulk of cold air has been over in Siberia for most of this winter and will probably remain there. This isn't a real cold pattern, not a warm once like last years February end, but not this "great" pattern that the such like Bustardi and his ilk hype.

This should be a lesson, unless we get a big chunk or the majority of the cold air on our side(like in 2002-03), historically cold winters usually don't follow.

[donsutherland1]

Roebear,

From the medium-range, the Euro is best. In the short range, both the NAM and GFS are good (NAM is better with mesoscale situations).

[donsutherland1]

SnowGod,

I could not more strongly disagree with the idea of dismissing out of hand the now unfolding pattern change. If one expects that pattern changes toward cold/snow mean extreme cold/blizzards from the onset, then obviously there will be disappointment.

Clearly, there is potential, both for a big storm (assuming the NAO tanks as progged) before the pattern breaks and perhaps some more serious cold. Initially, that won't occur, though some more moderate storm possibilities exist.

In any case, all the results will be tallied up at month's end. I expect that DCA to BOS will have averaged colder than normal during the second half of the month. That will be a huge departure from the first half. Moreover, I expect that the 500 mb pattern will look quite different, as well. I'll let the results speak for themselves. If there are noticeable differences as described above, that will be sufficient proof that the pattern change had occurred.

Finally, some might believe that the pattern will ultimately go to extremes. Some strong blocking ones have. Some have not. I, for one, will not go out and say that this pattern will have an extreme ending. The potential is there but the pieces still have to fall into place. I do believe that the overall ideas expressed at the opening of this thread still appear reasonable.

[donsutherland1]

Just a brief update:

1) The NAO has now crashed and is rapidly approaching -4 at the bottom of the charts. It is progged to remain strongly negative through at least the first week in March.

2) The new ENSO regional data has come in. A slow fade and not quick collapse of the weak El Niño has been reaffirmed. In fact, the cool anomaly in Region 1+2 is almost gone now. Region 3.4 has held steady for the second consecutive week.

3) The SOI has now fallen to -40.10 with the 30-day moving average having plunged to -18.21.

Overall, the combination of events suggests that the new pattern (highlighted at the beginning of this thread) will likely be sustained perhaps through the first 1-2 weeks of March and it might not be until the next MJO cycle that the pattern begins to break down (3rd or 4th week in March?). It's a little soon to make this call.

Suffice it to say, it appears increasingly likely that March could prove colder than normal in the East and warmer than normal in the West. An impressive cold shot, perhaps following a major storm, is a distinct possibility for the East. Odds of continued dry weather in the Pacific Northwest through March are quite high at this point in time.

[krysof]

a mid-atlantic storm is possible, but looking at the temperatures in a few forecasts, they remain above freezing and not cold.

[donsutherland1]

Krysof,

Among other guidance, have you seen the extended Euro?

When going into the medium-range, one must also carefully examine the reasonably likely synoptic setup. Modeling becomes ever less reliable when moving farther into the extended future. Hence, the MOS is trended toward climatology as the time horizon is lengthened.

Do you remember your prediction of February 14 that "...temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week."

At Newark, the last seven consecutive days have seen temperatures drop below 36°. Three of those days have seen highs below 36°. In the very near-term, modeling can be terrific. In the medium-range, one really needs to take a much more extensive look at the synoptic pattern, as modeling is far less dependable.

All said, it's far too soon to rule out the prospect of at least a spell of much below normal temperatures (perhaps in the first week in March?) as the current cold pattern continues to progress. In fact, given the synoptic setup, I would be surprised if such a spell does not materialize before the pattern breaks.

[krysof]

I hate it when its a dry cold. It might as well be very warm and dry.

[Jrodd312]

kysrof how old are you? Not being mean or anything just wondering. You dont have to answer.

[krysof]

I don't? Okay I won't.

[dwmcmillen]

there is your answer. enough said.