MAJOR, MAJOR Flooding underway, prayers PLEASE!

[azskyman]

Looks like the next round is about to begin. More showers and rain drifting northward. There is a "tropical" feel to the air here in Phoenix this afternoon...warm and humid to the degree that it can be that way here in the desert.

Calling for half inch rains here in the days ahead...1" or more to the north along the Mogollon Rim country and mountains. Will surely be plenty of runoff with whatever rain arrives.

A week after the rains, we still have concerns about people crossing flooded washes...and the new rain hasn't even started yet!!

Be careful out there.

[azsnowman]

Yes Sir Steve....."here we go AGAIN!" However, I heard on the local news tonight that we've only got 4 more WEEKS of these flooding rains and that's IT....."Ha, ha, ha...should I BELIEVE this?"

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST THU FEB 17 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-180100-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE
MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
700 AM MST THU FEB 17 2005

...WINTER STORM TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY..

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND
HEAVIER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE
GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND MANY STEAMS AND WASHES CONTINUE TO FLOW
AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THUS...THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500 FEET FRIDAY AND FALL TO AROUND 6500
FEET EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PROVIDER FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

[Aslkahuna]

Generally, the winter rainy season ends in March though is can extend into April on occasion (like it did last year down here) but in general, April, May and June are the driest months of the year here.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Generally, the winter rainy season ends in March though is can extend into April on occasion (like it did last year down here) but in general, April, May and June are the driest months of the year here.

Steve

YUP....I knew that, just being a *bit* sarcastic "LOL!" OK....check THIS out

Issued: February 18, 2005 03:24:37 MST (AZZ017)

Today: Rain and snow likely. Snow level around 8000 feet. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. South winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tonight: Rain and snow likely. Snow level around 7500 feet. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Lows around 31 above 7000 feet...around 37 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Saturday: Snow and rain likely. Snow level around 6500 feet. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...around 46 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow and rain. Snow level around 6500 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Lows around 27 above 7000 feet...around 34 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Snow level around 6500 feet. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Highs 33 to 41 above 7000 feet...around 45 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Lows around 23 above 7000 feet...around 30 below 7000 feet.

Presidents day: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 35 to 43 above 7000 feet...around 47 below 7000 feet.

Monday night: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Lows around 26 above 7000 feet...around 33 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...around 46 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Lows 22 to 28 above 7000 feet...around 32 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...around 46 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 20 above 7000 feet...around 27 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...around 46 below 7000 feet.

Rain or SNOW thru the END of NEXT WEEK? I swear, EVERYONE, including MYSELF is suffering from *sunlight deprevation*.....I know there's a word for this, it happens to people in climates where the sun doesn't shine that much, DANG it.....what's that word, symptom?

Dennis

[azskyman]

Seasonal Affective Disorder...and it creeps up on me too!

[Persepone]

Hey guys, stay safe out there in Arizona! The flooding sounds very dangerous!

I actually would bet that SAD (seasonal affective disorder) from lack of sunlight is much more severe for people used to a lot of sunlight than for those who are more or less accustomed to sunlight deprivation. At least we have ways to counter it (e.g., owning full spectrum lightbulbs, etc.)

[Aslkahuna]

Thunderstorms with hail in Tucson this afternoon so this system may have more punch than expected.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Thunderstorms with hail in Tucson this afternoon so this system may have more punch than expected.

Steve

Yes indeedy.....we've got boomers as I post this, I shouldn't even be online but.....I HAD to post this! Thanks Steve, SAD "IS" truly going around the west here as of late, after 9 years of being virtually CLOUD FREE, ALL these clouds for WEEKS on end "IS" getting kinda OLD!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 182137 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 230 PM MST FRI FEB 18 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. && .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CENTRAL CALIF COAST. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF ECHOES MOVING INTO WESTERN CWA ATTM. MODELS HAVE A VERY MOIST FLOW CUTTING ACROSS AZ FROM THE SW TO NE TONIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND HPC ESTIMATES. CAA WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 7000 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH LEVELS REACHING NEAR 6000 FT DURING THE DAY. STRONG LIFT TONIGHT INDICATED BY OMEGA PROGS AND MODERATE OROGRAPHIC SW FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THRU THE EASTERN RIM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. DYNAMICS WEAKEN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A LESSENING OF THE PRECIP INTENSITY EXPECTED. THE LOW EJECTS INLAND LATE TOMORROW WILL A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. DYNAMICS INCREASE WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL TAP SEEN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIF COAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH COLDER AND WILL AFFECT THE CWA THRU THURSDAY. VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEDIUM RAGE MODELS SHOW S/WV RIDGE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER OF LATE. DF FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SATURDAY FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE RIM. DF