Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B24 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/2007 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 165.8W
AT 171800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS
AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OLAF INTENSIFYED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY IRREGULAR ALTHOUGH
STILL WARM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A LG EYE IN
WHITE SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.0, MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0; FT BASED ON DT:
T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR IS LOW AS OLAF
MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SOME
VARIATIONS IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 21.0S 164.3W MOV SE 12KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 22.9S 163.6W MOV SE 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 24.8S 162.7W MOV SE 15KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC NEAR 27.1S 160.0W MOV SE 20KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180230 UTC.
Churning between American Samoa and the Cook Islands, powerful Tropical Cyclone Olaf continues finding its path toward the South Pole.
Tropical Cyclone Olaf (19P)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B25 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 18/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 164.3W
AT 180000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS, DECREASING TO
95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES
OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OLAF'S EYE REMAINS IRREGULAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT HAS ERODED. THE CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS SYMMETRY. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A DG EYE IN A WHITE SURROUND BUT
RING TEMPERATURE IS LG YIELDING DT=6.0, MET=6.0 AND PT=5.5; FT BASED
ON DT: T6.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT
REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE SHEAR IS LOW AS OLAF MOVES
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH OF 23S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND AN
INCREASE IN THE TRANSLATION SPEED.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 163.3W MOV SE 15KT WITH 105KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 25.2S 162.6W MOV SE 16KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 27.6S 162.1W MOV SE 18KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 28.6S 160.5W MOV SE 20KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180830 UTC.
Old Olaf continues to blow strong but is beginning to show clear signs of weakening just by watching its desintegrating structure.
Feb 18/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 164.3W
AT 180000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS, DECREASING TO
95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES
OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OLAF'S EYE REMAINS IRREGULAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT HAS ERODED. THE CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS SYMMETRY. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A DG EYE IN A WHITE SURROUND BUT
RING TEMPERATURE IS LG YIELDING DT=6.0, MET=6.0 AND PT=5.5; FT BASED
ON DT: T6.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT
REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE SHEAR IS LOW AS OLAF MOVES
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH OF 23S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND AN
INCREASE IN THE TRANSLATION SPEED.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 163.3W MOV SE 15KT WITH 105KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 25.2S 162.6W MOV SE 16KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 27.6S 162.1W MOV SE 18KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 28.6S 160.5W MOV SE 20KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180830 UTC.
Old Olaf continues to blow strong but is beginning to show clear signs of weakening just by watching its desintegrating structure.
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HurricaneJoe22
- Category 1
- Posts: 456
- Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 am
- Location: Temple, Texas
Four Rescued After Hurricane Hits Samoa
PAGO PAGO, American Samoa (AP) - Rescuers saved four people floating in open water Thursday after Hurricane Olaf struck the region with winds of 160 mph, damaging many homes in this U.S. territory.
New Zealand and U.S. planes found the survivors during a hunt for boats missing from a commercial fishing fleet based in neighboring Samoa.
The Category 5 storm moved out to sea after passing within 60 miles of American Samoa's Manua Islands, where wind and rain caused landslides and knocked out power.
There were no reports of deaths or injuries from the islands, home to some 2,000 people, but many houses were seriously damaged, officials said.
``I'm just thankful no one is hurt,'' said Tufele Li'a, Manua district governor. ``Homes can be rebuilt and plantations can be replanted but lives can't be replaced.''
There have been no reports from the islands of Olosega and Ofu, where communications have been down since Tuesday.
The villages of Ta'u and Faleasao appear to have taken the brunt of the storm.
Olaf had gusts of up to 190 mph, and sent waves 30 to 40 feet high onto the shores of Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega, the National Weather Service said. The main island of Tutuila had two landslides.
As the cleanup began, Gov. Togiola Tulafono urged the islands' residents to help one another. He ordered government workers and teachers to return to their jobs.
The people rescued were found in a life raft. They had been aboard an unnamed vessel, reported to be a Samoan boat with a local crew, that sank Wednesday in 50-foot waves and 120 mph winds about 95 miles north of Samoa.
New Zealand Rescue Coordination Center spokesman Steve Corbett said a New Zealand air force Orion airplane was still searching for two crew members and for other boats.
Heidi Brook, a spokeswoman for the center, said planes had so far located a total of 26 people and four boats in difficulty in the seas north of Samoa and around American Samoa.
Olaf was expected to head toward the southern Cook Islands, which suffered glancing blows from two cyclones in the past two weeks.
American Samoa, in the South Pacific, is the United States' southernmost territory, lying 2,300 miles south of Hawaii.
PAGO PAGO, American Samoa (AP) - Rescuers saved four people floating in open water Thursday after Hurricane Olaf struck the region with winds of 160 mph, damaging many homes in this U.S. territory.
New Zealand and U.S. planes found the survivors during a hunt for boats missing from a commercial fishing fleet based in neighboring Samoa.
The Category 5 storm moved out to sea after passing within 60 miles of American Samoa's Manua Islands, where wind and rain caused landslides and knocked out power.
There were no reports of deaths or injuries from the islands, home to some 2,000 people, but many houses were seriously damaged, officials said.
``I'm just thankful no one is hurt,'' said Tufele Li'a, Manua district governor. ``Homes can be rebuilt and plantations can be replanted but lives can't be replaced.''
There have been no reports from the islands of Olosega and Ofu, where communications have been down since Tuesday.
The villages of Ta'u and Faleasao appear to have taken the brunt of the storm.
Olaf had gusts of up to 190 mph, and sent waves 30 to 40 feet high onto the shores of Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega, the National Weather Service said. The main island of Tutuila had two landslides.
As the cleanup began, Gov. Togiola Tulafono urged the islands' residents to help one another. He ordered government workers and teachers to return to their jobs.
The people rescued were found in a life raft. They had been aboard an unnamed vessel, reported to be a Samoan boat with a local crew, that sank Wednesday in 50-foot waves and 120 mph winds about 95 miles north of Samoa.
New Zealand Rescue Coordination Center spokesman Steve Corbett said a New Zealand air force Orion airplane was still searching for two crew members and for other boats.
Heidi Brook, a spokeswoman for the center, said planes had so far located a total of 26 people and four boats in difficulty in the seas north of Samoa and around American Samoa.
Olaf was expected to head toward the southern Cook Islands, which suffered glancing blows from two cyclones in the past two weeks.
American Samoa, in the South Pacific, is the United States' southernmost territory, lying 2,300 miles south of Hawaii.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WHNZ41 NZKL 180734
HURRICANE WARNING 189
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: PACIFIC
COPY OF NADY WARN 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 18/0717 UTC 2005 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF [925 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 4
SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 7 WEST AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 162.7W AT 180600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20KT AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER
WHILST GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE,
DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE,
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.1S 162.3W AT 181800 UTC
AND NEAR 28.9S 158.4W AT 190600 UTC.
HURRICANE WARNING 189
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: PACIFIC
COPY OF NADY WARN 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 18/0717 UTC 2005 UTC
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF [925 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 4
SOUTH 162 DECIMAL 7 WEST AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.4S 162.7W AT 180600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20KT AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER
WHILST GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE,
DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE,
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.1S 162.3W AT 181800 UTC
AND NEAR 28.9S 158.4W AT 190600 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B27 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 18/1431 UTC 2005 UTC.
*CORRECTION FOR PRESSURE*
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 161.4W
AT 181200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 95 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120
MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OLAF HAS MAINTAINED A CLOUD FILLED EYE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY COOLING
AND BECOMING DISTENDED. INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODED CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON LG EYE IN A
BLACK SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. CI HELD AT 5.5;
FT BASED ON DT: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. INCREASING RELATIVE SHEAR, AS
OLAF CURVES SOUTHWARDS AND DECELERATES, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
TURNING OLAF SOUTHWARDS [AND LATER SOUTHWEST] AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES THE DOMINATING STEERING FORCE.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 26.5S 160.6W MOV SSE 18KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 28.0S 160.4W MOV S 15KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 29.4S 160.3W MOV SSW 15KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 30.9S 160.9W MOV SW 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
182030 UTC.
Feb 18/1431 UTC 2005 UTC.
*CORRECTION FOR PRESSURE*
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 161.4W
AT 181200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 95 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120
MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OLAF HAS MAINTAINED A CLOUD FILLED EYE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY COOLING
AND BECOMING DISTENDED. INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODED CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON LG EYE IN A
BLACK SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. CI HELD AT 5.5;
FT BASED ON DT: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. INCREASING RELATIVE SHEAR, AS
OLAF CURVES SOUTHWARDS AND DECELERATES, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
TURNING OLAF SOUTHWARDS [AND LATER SOUTHWEST] AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES THE DOMINATING STEERING FORCE.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 26.5S 160.6W MOV SSE 18KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 28.0S 160.4W MOV S 15KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 29.4S 160.3W MOV SSW 15KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 30.9S 160.9W MOV SW 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
182030 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 24.9S5 160.8W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 160.8W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 28.1S1 160.3W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.7S0 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.1S7 160.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.7S6 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 160.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 115
KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. A RECENT 181743Z4 SSMI PASS AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS BEING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO DEVIATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. TC 19P IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No advisories being issued by the Fiji Met Office anymore.
WTPS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 28.0S0 160.6W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 160.6W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.6S9 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.4S0 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.0S9 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 38.0S1 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.7S7 160.8W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CUR-
RENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS 36
AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 19P SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//
WTPS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 28.0S0 160.6W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 160.6W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.6S9 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.4S0 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.0S9 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 38.0S1 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.7S7 160.8W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CUR-
RENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS 36
AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 19P SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 34.3S0 160.6W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 19P HAS LOST
ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY
EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD AND CONTINUE TO DIS-
SIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS
08 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Requiem for Olaf,Good Bye.
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 34.3S0 160.6W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 19P HAS LOST
ALL DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY
EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD AND CONTINUE TO DIS-
SIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS
08 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Requiem for Olaf,Good Bye.
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