Northern Plains Winter Storm Chances

[NWIASpotter]

Well.. If I had to be a forecaster right now.. Boy would I be confused! Basically, the Euro/Canadian and the NAM are all the same according to NWS offices. I have not had time to look at the AVN/MRF, but they will most likely be closer to the GFS solution which is as of right now a complete mess. The GFS is the only one that has the low tracking north, it has warmer temps, it doesn't bring along a strong trough but instead several smaller/weaker ones. Overall you would have to go with the other 3 instead, but maybe give a mention to the GFS. Basically for most of MN/Dakotas, as well as northern IA and northern NE, would have to go with mostlly snow. But mention in a chance for a mix of some frz rain/sleet. As for the rest of IA/NE would have to go with the mix of precip instead of the all snow forecast. This is because if the GFS is even close to knowing what it's doing then there will be some good chances of seeing that mix. I just got a look at both the MRF/AVN and as expected they are pretty close to being in line with the GFS. They like to bring the low right along the NE/SD.. IA/MN border and dump on the precip across southern MN and into WI. The NAM is still coming in right now and is only out to 54 hours so nothing to say for it so far today.

Timing for this system looks to be this: Precip should develop across portions of the Dakotas as well as NE over the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday. Overnight this system should reach its full potential as the low moves near the IA/MN borders. By early morning there should be a good band of precip over areas of either southern MN, or norhtenr IA... or a mixture of both dependent on where the low is located. This system should move fairly quickly and as expected from DMX most of the precip should be out of the IA area by midnight sunday. Areas of MN may still being seing some precip at this time, but will put this precip from the twins cities east. Total amounts with this system are looking fairly good. Areas just to the north of the low may see amounts ranging from 1/2 inch to nearly a full inch with a heavy badn of precip that may develop. Other areas that are not in this heaviest band may still see amounts from 1/8 up to an average of a 1/4 inch, but I can't rule out seeing a ready of 1/3 inch or so. Actual snow amounts will vary depending on if we are able to see some mix of precip. If it comes down as all snow we may be able to see a swath of 8 inch snow readings with the heavy band.. With amounts varying from 2-6 inches elsewhere. If we do see some mix then we could have some bad travel conditions as 1/8 inch of ice could come with a good 3 inches of snow on top.

Overall still a lot of questions with this system... Hopefully we can get an agreement by tonights run or early tomorrow..

[Guest]

My ZFP for Omaha just says snow for Sat./Sat. night, and RAIN for Sun., perhaps maybe a mix rain/snow on Sun. Night. Certainly a change from the past couple of days where the forecast was indicating a 75 to 80% snow event, now it is about half, rain and snow.

[Skywatch_NC]

NWS forecast for Terril, IA as it stands now:

Saturday Night:

Snow and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday:

A chance of snow and freezing rain before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.


For Omaha:

Saturday:

A chance of rain and snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 38. East wind between 6 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night:

Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday:

A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

Sunday Night:

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

[NWIASpotter]

It looks as if any mix is going to occur it will be towards the later half of the storm. When the low gets to the east of IA/MN it should bring up an influx of warmer air and this will allow the precip to have a chance of a mix. One thing with the NWS forecasts, Terril.. Which is on the FSD and DMX border, FSD has the rain/snow mix, but only 2 miles away with the DMX forecast it is an all snow event. That is why we are so closely on the border. FSD is going with a small mix of the GFS along with the other models. DMX is going without the GFS in their forecast they don't believe the GFS has a chance of verifying. That is the only problems as of now.

[Gill]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
339 PM EST THU FEB 17 2005

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 20 2005 - 12Z THU FEB 24 2005

...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...

THE NEW 12Z/17 GFS HAS TRENDED S FROM ITS 06Z/17 RUN WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GRT LAKES MON DAY 4.
THE 12Z/UKMET IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW GFS....AS IS THE
NEW 12Z/17 ECMWF. THE NEW NOGAPS CONTINUES MORE SUPPRESSED WITH
THIS SYS THAN OTHER MODELS...MOVING A LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY
TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC MON WITH PSBL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AS FAR S
AS THE VA CAPES. WHILE NOT JUMPING ON THE 12Z/17 NOGAPS
SOLUTION...WE ARE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE GFS SHOWS
STRONG BLOCKING AT THAT TIME WORKING WWD FROM THE N ATLANTIC INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT.

[NWIASpotter]

t looks like the models are coming into a little better agreement as we go on in the runs. The GFS/NAM are a little closer together, given that you take away their biases that they usually have. If you go with a mix of the models, you are likely to put this low through the KS/NE border for the most part, if anything just a little further south (northeastern KS). With the influx of moisture that should occur just ahead of the pressure system, and combine that with a little shortwave that might sneak its way in then we should see some broad areas of precip. Right now, there is still the chance of seeing a mix for some ares of the northern plains. These areas will most likely be in the IA/NE areas especially. There does not look to be any areas of strong snowfall anymore, and we have gone to more of a broad light to moderate event that should cover a lot of the plains in another coating of snow. Most areas of FSD/DMX have gone with a 1-3 inch range of snowfall. Other areas of the northern plains should see about the same, or possibly a little less for southern areas of IA/NE as they may see more rain/sleet then the snow. That is just a quick update, will post another short update after this morning's model runs are in...

[NWIASpotter]

This mornings model runs are finished... Looking at the NAM, it should be a good winter storm maker for areas of SD/NE/IA/MN. The low looks to set up over the panhandle of NE at the beginning of saturday night. At this time the main area of precip should be over areas of southeastern SD, northeastern NE as well as southern MN, and large portions of IA. By the early morning hours on sunday the system looks to move to the northeast corner of KS and keep the main line of precip right on the IA/MN border as well as much of eastern IA... It is also beginning to move into the great lakes area. By sunday evening the NAM has most of the precip out of the norhtern plains, although lingering flurries and snow showers may still exist, especially over areas of IA/MN.
Storm totals with this system should have some precip over just about all areas of the northern plains. Around a 1/4 inch for areas of ne NE, se SD, and s MN, as well as all of IA. An area of near 1/2 marks may be seen from the Vermillion, SD area along the MN/IA border, and then from SUX to near Keokuk, IA as well. Localized areas in this region may see an amount nearing 3/4 inches of precip. Snow totals with a 10:1 ratio may see upward of 6 inches. Currently the highest snow amounts are on the direct line of the MN/IA border. (Keep in mind that much of the precip in the rest of IA/NE may fall as rain/sleet/snow mix.)

The GFS run from this morning is quite similar, the track of the low is a touch further north. Setting up more towards the NE/SD border and then moving to the KS/NE border just south of OAX. The timing of the storm is also a little earlier, around the time of 3-6 hours earlier. The storm totals precip through 84 hours is different as well. The heaviest areas of around 1/2 precip are including se SD, all of s MN, most of IA except for portions of western IA. Heavier areas of 2/3 inch precip can be found in the se portions of MN, and ne portions of IA.

Overall, it looks like areas of s MN, n IA will be the hardest hit with this storm. Preliminary forecast amounts should be around 3-6 inches for the most parts. While other areas should see 2-3 inches.

[NWIASpotter]

The last model runs have pushed this system even further north and the precip has already begun in the northern plains. The last couple runs allowed the low to drift further north, and along with this the warm air has came up north as well. Much of IA/NE will see this precip come down as rain/sleet today and make a change over to snow throughout the system. Areas of SD will see some snow, only amounts of 1-3 inches look likely and the heavier areas of precip should be confined to MN and eastward. Areas of southern MN will see the highest snow amounts as they shouldn't see any change to rain or sleet. A line of Marshall, MN and to the east should see anywhere from 5 inches plus as they should see the longest period of precip. As for areas of northeastern NE and northern IA, it should be a mix of precip throughout today as the temps fluctuate.. By tomorrow it should be mostly snow, but significant snowfall isn't expected.. 1-2 inches for the most part.

[sertorius]

NWIASpotter:

How's it going?? That is kind of the story for this winter over all huh??? Good luck-I hope it changes a bit for you-my temp. will do nothing but rise untill late tomorrow when the front finally comes thru-but even then, like last week, we will cool to just above or just average for the week. Conrads. to southern Minn. while we have been snowless here for the most part, that is not unusuall-for them, it is-I hope ssm04 gets a good one and I hope you get a little more as well. I think I'm going to buy a cannoe for all the rain we have had in the past 3 weeks!!!!

[NWIASpotter]

Well I'm looking at around 1-3 inches for myself.. And to go along with it some rain/sleet. I guess from talking to some others around here that some roads in northwest Iowa are slick from a little frz drizzle we got here early this morning.

As for ssom04, he should see some 3-5 inches of snow... so his wishes of winters return should come true.

[NWIASpotter]

And as I say that... A winter weather advisory has now been posted for areas of northwestern IA including myself. Not for snow accumulations but it looks like widespread icy conditions for areas of northwestern IA as the precip begins to intensify and spread throughout the day.

[PurdueWx80]

Not really in the northern Plains here...but I'm close enough. Snow has been falling heavily this morning with temperatures now in the 32-34 range. Convection to our south and west has moved up over Madison, and visibilities have been near 1/4 of a mile for several hours. The roads are slushy, but it is quickly accumulating on all other surfaces. The snowflakes are gi-normous since it is so close to freezing (slight melting allows the flakes to stick together...otherwise this is known as aggregation)

[NWIASpotter]

Thanks for the update....

As for myself, nearly all of yesterday afternoon was off and on snow/rain showers. Roads were not too bad for the afternoon/evening drive as most of it came down as snow. Although it was sticky enough to stick to the surfaces and stay. As we went on the snow picked up after the evening hours and we reached overnight. Around the 10 pm timeframe a line of frz rain/sleet moved in and this is what the NWS had been waiting for.. As they issued winter weather advisories earlier in the day. It quickly came down and made all roads into a sheet of ice.. I definatly know as I was out driving just before 10, then at 12 and once again later on in the night. Overall a thin sheet of ice here, on top of about 1/2 inch of snow.
More off and on snow/sleet may be seen today across portions of the norhtern plains, but the great lakes region should be seeing a lot more action now...

[ssom04]

Just to confirm here North Mankato got around 5.1 inches. It got very heavy sunday morning with probably rates of one inch per hour at times. I picked up 3/4 of an inch today. So with the .5 inch on the ground before this snow fest lol I have about 5.9 inches of snow on the ground. I had some melting on sunday afternoon else it would be a little more.........things get going again wednesday night maybe another inch or two....Then a bigger system next weekend almost like this last weekend

Also thanks for thinking about me lol, I was kind of surprised seeing my s/n on here lol