"ENOUGH ALREADY!" Is the SUN still in the SKY?

[azsnowman]

MAN, I'm tellin' ya, be CAREFUL what you ASK for! In the midst of a 9 year drought, enough prayers have been prayed and they HAVE been answered, so much, "Enough ALREADY!" I KNOW we NEED the moisture but at LEAST let us SEE the SUN (if there IS still a SUN out there) shine for a day or two!


Issued: February 19, 2005 15:36:08 MST (AZZ017)

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Snow level near 6500 feet. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows 25 to 31 above 7000 feet...around 35 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. West winds up to 15 mph. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...45 to 51 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 6500 feet. West winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Lows around 24 above 7000 feet...around 31 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Presidents day: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 6500 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Snow level around 7000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Lows around 28 above 7000 feet...around 34 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 33 to 41 above 7000 feet...43 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 27 above 7000 feet...around 33 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 31 to 39 above 7000 feet...41 to 47 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 21 above 7000 feet...around 27 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 34 to 42 above 7000 feet...43 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 20 above 7000 feet...around 27 below 7000 feet.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Not as cool. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...45 to 51 below 7000 feet.

Friday night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 20 above 7000 feet...around 27 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Not as cool. Highs 39 to 47 above 7000 feet...49 to 55 below 7000 feet.



Dennis

[andrewr]

http://www.weather.com/activities/other ... ocid=98042
Here's the forecast for the Seattle area. We have had a week of sun with another one in store and possibly no rain until March 2.

[Aslkahuna]

We saw the Sun down here in SE AZ today.

Steve

[boca]

The sun has been shining since Dec. No rain since that time. If you want Arizona weather come to FL the new dust bowl of the South.

[azsnowman]

I saw on TWC and FOX News where Florida is already having wildfires, very ODD! This time last year, I was getting ready to put the veggie garden in the ground, this year, I HIGHLY doubt I'll be able to plant until sometime in June, seriously, it's THAT WET.....I'm NOT complaining mind you, I would MUCH rather have the mud, the muck, the SLOP over another KILLER wildfire season like the past 3 years.....speaking of which, overheard at the PD the other day during briefing, the wildfire season for all intents and purposes is OVER before it can even START......."THAT'S A FIRST!"


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-201400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY MIDDAY. MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
SEE PHXWSWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION RAIN WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.



Dennis

[azskyman]

Seems to me Dennis that the wildfire season will crank up in the lower deserts just the same. There is so much growth emergency in the McDowell Mountains, for example, that they are actually green for the first time in a long time. When all that brush dries out, any tiny spark will ignite it.

As for this week...word on the street from most watching the next storm is that it will be a significant rain AND snow producer...colder than the last storm, so you could be shoveling by Wednesday for sure!

Had two showers overnight here in Phoenix, so officially Sunday will have measureable rainfall too.

[Scorpion]

Wow, I used to live in Phoenix and have never seen the McDowell Mountains green. I would love to be in the area right now. Are there any pics of the area?

[azskyman]

Just checked the gauge...we are above 4" for the month of Feb, 7.01" since January 1, and just over 12" since October 1st!

[azsnowman]

Seems to me Dennis that the wildfire season will crank up in the lower deserts just the same. There is so much growth emergency in the McDowell Mountains, for example, that they are actually green for the first time in a long time. When all that brush dries out, any tiny spark will ignite it.

As for this week...word on the street from most watching the next storm is that it will be a significant rain AND snow producer...colder than the last storm, so you could be shoveling by Wednesday for sure!

Had two showers overnight here in Phoenix, so officially Sunday will have measureable rainfall too.

Your right Steve, I tend to forget that the lower deserts are a target for some MAJOR brush fires and like you said, THIS season may well be, one of the worst on recent record

I can't WAIT until it does finally dry out a little, the wildflowers will start to EXPLODE down there, a trip to the lower desert valleys IS on the LIST of things to do this spring!

Yeah....the Mon. Tues Weds system appears to be THE big ONE! Could THIS be a repeat of 1967? Sure appears to be......"IF" this IS the BIG ONE, we could EASILY see 6+ FEET by the time it's over and done with......speaking of snow, it's snowing AGAIN!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 201141 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 230 AM MST SUN FEB 20 2005 .SYNOPSIS...FOR TODAY...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A BROAD TROUGH REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING WITH A FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR 6000 FEET. AFTER THE CURRENT SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE PASSES A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL HELP TO BUILD A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND HELP LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH ARIZONA LATER ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6000 TO 6500 FOOT RANGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

[Stephanie]

It's still up there Dennis!! Trust me!!!

It's amazaing what a lack of sunshine does to you mentally.

[snow_wizzard]

You guys have not seen anything compared to some of the winters Seattle has had in recent years. We had one a few years ago where it rained almost every day for three months straight. The clouds were so low and dark, that we had to have lights on during the middle of the day. Talk about gloom and doom weather!

[azsnowman]

You guys have not seen anything compared to some of the winters Seattle has had in recent years. We had one a few years ago where it rained almost every day for three months straight. The clouds were so low and dark, that we had to have lights on during the middle of the day. Talk about gloom and doom weather!

"Thanks but NO THANKS!" Hence the reason I live in what USED to BE SUNNY Az. Ya know, really, this is *kinda* normal, it's just been SOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooo long since we've SEEN a winter like this, hey WAIT..."AUGGGHHHH, my EYES, something, big, bright, must not look at it!" Phhhhfffft, THAT was SHORT, the sun, at least I THINK that's what it was, peeked it's bright face out for JUST a BRIEF second, it's gone now!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

*insert HEAVY sigh* Yep....you guessed it, it's SNOWING AGAIN! Everyone and I do mean EVERYONE, even the USDA Forest Service people, are saying "ENOUGH already!" I KNOW we need it and I've GOT to admit, the snow's BETTER than ALL that friggin' RAIN we've been having but MAN!

Heard on the 10 pm news last night that Flagstaff is 4" away from an ALL TIME RECORD snowfall for the month of February and we, the White Mountains, are 10" away from an ALL time record! As I've said before, "Be CAREFUL of what you wish for, you just MAY get it!" LOL!

Snow is in the forecast for the ENTIRE week "AND" the NWS is *hinting* that this pattern will continue into NEXT WEEK! "Auuuuggggghhhhhh!" That would make for a SOLID month of rain/snow.....only 10 days shy of the ALL time record rainfall Noah witnessed......"HEY?" Maybe THAT'S why I've been seeing 2 of everything?!?!? Naaaaaa......too many Margaritas last night or possibly SNOW BLINDNESS!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

BTW....my skin is now pasty WHITE from the lack of sunshine, I have to wear sunglasses when I get out of the shower *that's an image you could probably do without this early morning!*

Dennis

[azsnowman]

You've "GOT" to be KIDDING ME.......I swear to God, I've "NEVER, EVER" seen ANYTHING like THIS stormy ALL this WEEK and then yet ANOTHER SYSTEM....what is going on HERE? We are SO water logged, there's water standing, pooling, running in places I've NEVER seen before. This winter is/will/if not already, go down in the record books as the WETTEST winter in recorded history...........


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 230932 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 230 AM MST WED FEB 23 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...COLD UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ALONG S CALIF COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONE LOBE IS MOVING ACROSS N AZ ATTM...NEARING THE UT BORDER. IN ITS WAKE RADAR INDICATING LIGHT SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT LOBE TO AFFECT THE STATE IS SEEN MOVING INTO N BAJA. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE OVER THE CWA TODAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LI`S. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE CONVECTION MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE CWA. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 6000 FT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED TODAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE STATE TOMORROW AND BECOMES STATIONARY. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF DAILY PRECIP TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD CORE OVERHEAD KEEPS THE AIR MASS UNSTABLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW SHOW S/WV RIDGING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROF.



Dennis