Severe Thunderstorms for Eastern MO and IL!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Here's the Mesoscale Discussion from the NSSL of the NWS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL IL THROUGH ERN/SRN MO INTO PARTS
OF NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 201946Z - 202145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z.

NARROW PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW
NOW MIGRATING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO WARM TOWARD THE LOWER
70S...INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE
JUST BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DEFORMATION
ZONE IN RESPONSE TO THESE TWO FEATURES CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY TO EVOLVE UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME NEAR/NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER...WHEN/WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.

HOWEVER...UPPER FORCING ON TAIL END OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE INTO SURFACE LOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. OTHER ISOLATED
CELLS MAY ATTEMPT TO EVOLVE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST... PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG...WITH
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 02/20/2005


ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Cities like Springfield, MO, St. Louis, and Springfield, IL down to Paducha, KY need to stay tuned. The atomsphere is becoming ripe and a Severe Thunderstorm watch has been issued for these highlighted areas by the Midwestern Weather Alliance. NWS watch will probably be forthcoming within the next 2 hours or so. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, gust winds to 60-70 mph are possible along with a chance for a F0-F2 tornado or two. Conditions are favoriable all we need is a spark, and that spark maybe coming very soon in the form of a shortwave and upper level distrubance about to come into Missouri from the southwest. Have your severe weather plans ready in case a warning is issued for your area by the NWS.