Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Wow...talk about being quite tonight! Has to be some sort of weather to talk about here in the PNW. 33 degrees here with clear skies as of 9:50pm. -- Andy

[andrewr]

Last time I checked about 20 minutes ago it was 29F. Hopefully things will pick back up in a week or two (the thread as well as the weather).

[snow_wizzard]

I still say...from the standpoint of being unusual, this weather is very remarkable. By tomorrow morning this will be the longest string of days to have a low temp of 25 or below since Feb 1989. There is something I like about that!

Besides that...we are talking about this being one of the 5 driest Febs since 1850.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you are right on with your assessment.

Something is definitely changing. This blocking pattern is amazing and unlike anything I have seen in a long time.

I think it was about 2 or 3 weeks ago now that I said it would be very dull around here until March. I did not realize it was going to be this quiet!! But I don't even need to look at the models to know it will change soon.

My parents are staying at our house this week. Its funny... they cannot believe this weather. They keep saying how beautiful it is... a little chilly at night and so nice during the day. And they have had a very warm winter in Minnesota. For having guests come in the winter... this is about as good as it gets. They can do just about anything they want without having to consider the weather. Very much like visiting in the summer. And it goes on and on.

My parents come for 2 weeks at the end of February and may see rain once and sunshine every day!!

What I really like about this pattern is the awesome visibility. It is so sparkingly clear every day. Every mountain within 100 miles is perfectly in view. And then we get renewed offshore flow. Looking at the latest models... I don't think we are going to get into an inversion situation at all this week.

Just more of the same.

[andrewr]

I do agree that it is good there isn't a temperature inversion because of the air quality. Aside from car exhaust, a lot of people crank up the heat at night and it isn't really all that nice to have to look at the pollutants during the day. Might as well be clear and sunny than smog and sunny.

[andycottle]

Currently clear skies and 32 degrees with DP of 28 here at 10:43pm.
-- Andy

[andrewr]

I've got 27.5F here now. Several degrees cooler than it was last night.

[andycottle]

30.0 degrees here at 11:39pm.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...There is no question that your parents are witnessing an EXTREME rarity right now. Nobody could question that this long stretch of crystal clear weather is spectacular. The thing I like is how we continue to get fresh batches of Canadian air, which keeps the air very clear, and the temps from getting too warm. It is very interesting to note that April 1951 is probably the best match I have found to this (so far). The days were a lot warmer, because it was so much later in the year, but like this event, the nights were cold and we got frequent reinforcments of Canadian air. The lows in the wind sheltered areas were incredible for April. That came after a cold spell in early March...probably very similar to the early Jan cold spell, on the large scale aspects, but different on the fine details.

The models are now showing a literal showdown between a Pacific trough and a Canadian trough in roughly the 7 - 11 day time frame. The two lows will slug it out to see which one gains control of our weather in the long run. A high amplitude ridge will be squeezed up between the two troughs and extend well above the Arctic circle. This will supposedly create an Omega block formation over the eastern Pacific and western North America. This situation promises to be a forecasting nightmare. The possibilities range from us coming out of this with an Arctic outbreak (if the Canadian trough takes control) to a reasonably cool wet pattern developing (if the Pacific trough takes over). The most likely scenario appears to be a zonal flow undercutting the Omega block, which will finally put us into a much more typical late winter pattern. It certainly appears that the end of the road for the current pattern is near. Historically speaking, the chances of March having a continuation of the current pattern are slim to none.

[andycottle]

Currently at 12:28a.m we have now have a temp of 29.8 with DP 28, clear skies and baro 29.91 and steady. Todays`s weather.......another fabulous sunny day!

Good night all! -- Andy

[Guest]

Currently 28*F at 1:45AM... Very Frosty... Roads in Sudden Valley are completely white with frost... Almost recked because I wasn't ready for it...

[R-Dub]

Yet another frosty morning!!!! Well to all the people going to schools, have a great day off........The rest of us, have fun at work

2/21/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:21:35 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 27.6
Humidity (%) 82.0
Wind (mph) NNE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.13
Dew Point: 25.7 ºF

[andycottle]

Frosty morning here to, Randy and all!:) Our low got down to 25. 26 right now as of 7:43am and clear skies. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good morning everyone!

Looking at the latest 6z GFS...our dry weather still continues onward with no REAL threat of definate showers till the 28th. Though some light sprinkles try and sneak into the extreme Southern portions of the Cascades on the 26th, and into South sound areas on the 27th. Mean time...this week looks very sunny with highs possibly getting into mid 50`s. In the longer range...some much colder air tries to come our way from the North, but fails to make it across the mountains of Southern B.C as the Jet stream has weak to some what strong systems coming in on us from the West and SouthWest off the Pacific ocean. GEM model also showing sort of the same, but not as drastic.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Hello everyone...the beat rolls on. Today was our 7th consecutive low of 25 or below. This mornings rather nippy 23 kept the streak alive! This is now the longest string since Feb 1989.

It now looks like the end is in sight to this dry weather. The 12z continues the idea of a Pacific low undecutting the blocking pattern by the beginning of March. The possibility of an Arctic airmass dropping in early next week cannot be ruled out. There has not yet been a run that shows it making it here, but most runs show it getting very close. Historically the first week of March is a good window of opportunity for Arctic outbreaks in this region. Right now, I will leave the chance at 20% that the Arctic air will make it here. At any rate, it looks like the first week of March will have a good chance of dumping some snow in the mountains.

[snow_wizzard]

Sea-Tac only missed their record low by 3 degrees this morning. The low of 28 this morning was actually 2 degrees below tomorrow's reocrd of 30. While 30 is not an impressive record for this time of year, it has stood since 1957. I would say the chances are a good 50% the record will be broken.

Olympia only missed it's record low of 19 by 1 degree yesterday. I am not sure if their low of 20 this morning was a record or not. I am happy to see all of these records being threatened.

Even with the fairly mild days we have been having the ground is frozen solid in the shade through the entire day at my place.

[andrewr]

Olympia's record low was 18 today so they didnt beat that. Tomorrow their record low is 21 degrees.

[R-Dub]

Well I am home early today because the ground is now so frozen that we can't do a hole lot of anything at work. Grass has pretty much quit growing, which is a good thing, because we wouldn't be able to put our heavy equipment on it anyway, the frozen roots would snap like a twig under the weight. Our ponds are frozen solid, I walked across it today, and it didn't even crack. Our low this morning was 25.0 degrees. When we have 14hrs of subfreezing temps, and only 10hrs of above freezing temps, and the fact that we are not getting above the low to mid 40's really makes for some frozen ground!!!

2/21/05 LK Goodwin WA
12:35:56 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 41.7
Humidity (%) 53.2
Wind (mph) NNW 2.6
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.16
Dew Point: 27.7 ºF

[TT-SEA]

Strange... considering how beautiful it is this week.

The pattern is going to begin shifting this week. The persistent northerly flow will veer to the east and then the south. This WILL bring in a warmer airmass and more moisture. No rain yet... but dewpoints WILL come up this week. We have had northerly flow for the last 8 days straight.

This will be a change.

And it signals the beginning of a wetter pattern that will develop over the next two weeks as the rex block breaks down finally.

Here is the latest MM5 for Thursday morning. Notice 850mb temperatures climbing to +5C and look at the wind direction over Western Washington. From the SOUTH and not the NORTH...

[img]http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_eta/images_d2/850t.72.0000.gif [/img]

[TT-SEA]

In fact... the forecasted depoints get into the mid-30's by Thursday and near 40 degrees by Friday. This with temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's.