Which area of US will have more threats in 2005?

Opal storm · #21 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 10:31 am

I think south FL and the Gulf coast are (like always),at highest risk.This is usually the region where somebody is going to get slammed.Personally I think the Florida peninsula is going to be the target again this year.The Outer Banks may get brushed by a hurricane,but I don't think their at high risk for anything big.

cajungal · #22 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 10:45 am

Only 1 person voted Louisiana. And it was not me even if it is my state. Does everyone seriously think that New Orleans will be lucky forever? Just because they continued to dodge them. But, it is hard to get a direct hit on New Orleans. It is not a coast city and most recurve to the east and hit Mississippi or Florida instead. But, I do think anywhere between Houma and Grand Isle is a ticking time bomb. In the years past they used to get hit a lot. About every few years or so. We have been so lucky over the years. Just got some tropical storms and even that caused a lot of extensive flooding to the bayou communities. But, Houma-Thibodaux has fared really well over the years. It says alot when you are 28 and only experience hurricane force winds once. That was with Andrew almost 13 years ago. Luck won't always be on our side.

WXBUFFJIM · #23 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 10:53 am

Sounds like you're due for one. I'm not counting anyone out. But I think Louisiana and Texas will have to be factored in this season for a hurricane threat.

Jim

vacanechaser · #24 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 1:33 pm

I will have to say the Outer Banks this season. That of course will have major impacts on my home state here in Va as well. Does not have to be a direct hit here in Va for it to due major damage and have a big impact on the entire state. Isabel was a good example, and she was still a hurricane as she moved through the state.

Florida will be second but a close second. Texas may see early development say June or July, but I think that may be it. Pattern is starting to look like last year to some extent. We will see.

sunny · #25 Postby **sunny** » Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:39 am

I voted the east coast of Florida.

Persepone · #26 Postby **Persepone** » Mon Feb 21, 2005 9:45 am

I agree that possibilities are slim for a Mid-Atlantic and points north landfalling hurricane, but there have been several of them. The famous one is, of course the "Long Island Express" of 1938 but there have been a bunch since then.

Can anyone out there explain what, if anything, would make it more likely for a hurricane have a more northerly landfall?

southerngale · #27 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:27 pm

Thanks for the responses to my question. It seems like it's too early to know what the pattern will be, but what do I know? lol

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 17, 2005 3:36 pm

Bumping this poll to see if some more members who haven't voted do so.

T'Bonz · #29 Postby **T'Bonz** » Sun Mar 20, 2005 12:37 am

I can't vote. Not enough information to hazard a guess.

How 'bout anywhere but S. Florida?

Shoshana · #30 Postby **Shoshana** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:59 am

I went with Outer Banks.

I'm no expert but I hope all the people who say that New Orleans to Brownsville area has been 'lucky' and that we are 'due' for some badness this season ... are incorrect. I feel like it's not like a one armed bandit that will pay out because it hasn't in a while...

But I guess we'll find out soon. Texas especially tends to get the early storms if we get any (let's just ignore the Fragment of Ivan Phantom from last year, k?)

'shana

HurricaneBill · #31 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:28 pm

Texas hurricanes since 1950:

1959 Hurricane Debra
1961 Hurricane Carla
1963 Hurricane Cindy
1967 Hurricane Beulah
1970 Hurricane Celia
1971 Hurricane Fern
1980 Hurricane Allen
1983 Hurricane Alicia
1986 Hurricane Bonnie
1989 Hurricane Chantal
1989 Hurricane Jerry
1999 Hurricane Bret
2003 Hurricane Claudette

HurricaneBill · #32 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:30 pm

Interestingly, with the exception of David landfalling near the GA/SC border in 1979, the Georgia coastline has not had a hurricane landfall in over a century.

#33 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:51 pm

vacanechaser wrote:I will have to say the Outer Banks this season. That of course will have major impacts on my home state here in Va as well. Does not have to be a direct hit here in Va for it to due major damage and have a big impact on the entire state. Isabel was a good example, and she was still a hurricane as she moved through the state.

Florida will be second but a close second. Texas may see early development say June or July, but I think that may be it. Pattern is starting to look like last year to some extent. We will see.

Exactly. A hurricane approaching from the southeast, as Isabel did, will pile up water along the coast several days in advance of landfall. A large hurricane making landfall even as far south as Ocracoke Island NC would expose southeast Virginia to the dreaded right front quadrant. The eastern semicircle of a tropical system over land can remain dangerous 24 hours after landfall; even after the winds subside the threat of heavy flooding rains and tornadoes contunue.

#34 Postby **USCG_Hurricane_Watcher** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:51 pm

Scorpion wrote:Florida East Coast simply because it is the highest probabality for a hurricane to hit. Virginia up to Maine? Get real, that chance is like 1 in a thousand.

I still say Eastern FL...but I've got to laugh. After spending my entire life in either SC or FL, I got stationed in DC - actually residing in MD. The locals blew off Hurricane Isabel until the last minute, and in typical DC/MD fashion, it was a mad dash for what "supplies and provisions" were actually remaining - it was rather amusing to see grown adults fighting over the last canned tuna...

Unfortunately, low probability does not mean no probability...ask my neighbors who had no means of preparing food, finding their way around in the dark, etc. And it was only 3 1/2 days with no power!! I was living in Charleston in September 1989 for Hugo, so Isabel was like a long weekend camping trip.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:13 am

This poll was made back in febuary and extended to march.See what the members who participated said at that time including me.

#36 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:58 am

cycloneye wrote:
Ixolib wrote:I guess Alabama and Mississippi must have recently seceded from the US???

Nobody is perfect and I forgot to put that area but is in the poll now.

That's OK Luis, I would be satisifed if the storms leave us out too! :lol:

#37 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:59 am

Also, I did pick MS/AL

I just believe that SELA/MS is due for a major. We are only a weakness in the ridge from seeing Emily come entirely too close to us.

Skywatch_NC · #38 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 11:49 am

NC Outer Banks

Eric

AL Chili Pepper · #39 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 12:03 pm

OK, maybe I'm a homer but I voted MS/AL coast. I would rather include that with the FL Panhandle being that MS/AL coast is just a blip on the screen compared to the other areas. I think the GOM/Bermuda high theory is holding true so far. That could be bad news for the Florida east coast too.

#40 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sat Jul 16, 2005 2:34 pm

Perry (SO WX)

I'm not crazy about your answer. We're hoping for a hurricane free season down here.

However, when you say something I usually listen. Personally, I voted for Fl. E. coast but hope Fl. is spared any more damage at least until everyone can recover from 2004 and Dennis. I'd be just as happy if we have an active season with last minute turns that spare everyone.

Lynn

Which area of US will have more threats in 2005?

Which area in US coast will have more Hurricane threats in 2005?

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