80's, Severe Thunderstorms, 40's, Cold Rain, and Snow??

[CaptinCrunch]

Hi Everybody,

Well this past weekend has been very spring like for NTX with temps topping out at 82 for Sunday and a forecasted high of 80 for Presidents Day. But this spring like weather will have it's down side by Tuesday with the threat of Servere Thunderstorms that can produce large hail and damaging straight line winds as the warm layer of air in the middel part of the atmosphere that acts as a cap and keeps thunderstorms from forming goes away and the strong upper low that hit CA this past weekend moves eastward across TX and OK Tuesday night and Wednesday.

After Wednesday a cold front will be backing in from the NE and bringing in much cooler air with highs by Thursday and Friday in the mid to lower 50's and keeping the chances of rain in our forecast thru the coming weekend. The EURO model shows a chance of frozen precip for late Thursday night and early Friday morning but it's only a small chance.

The GFSMR models show a very strong push of Cold Canadian air coming down in to the Central Plains early next week that might make it to NTX by March 3rd. But other model runs push the cold air mass to the east as it reaches TX. It does look like the Central Plains and the Southeast like Atlanta GA could see some wintery precip in the form of snow or sleet by late next week.

All events are subject to change as the week progresses, so stay tuned.

P.S. I will be attending the SkyWarn Advanced Spotter Training class in Arlington TX this coming Saturday, can't wait!!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

.UPDATE...
FOG HAS LIFTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WE LET THE NPW EXPIRE. SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY LEFT
FORECAST HIGHS ALONE EXCEPT TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST. GFS/ETA
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DYNAMICS TOWARD SUNSET FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEGATIVE TILT 500-700 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NRN MEXICO WILL BE EJECTING NE
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA AFTER 3 PM...AND FILL IN ALONG A STALLED FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG AN ABILENE TO DALLAS TO TYLER
LINE. HAVE REDUCED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NE AND E CWA..BUT
GFS IS STILL INDICATING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE 6 PM AND
HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCES ALONG WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED.
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT...BUT THINKING IS THAT THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THIS EVENING. INCREASED POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND ADDED HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL DECIDE WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF A STEPHENVILLE...
CLEBURNE...TO CANTON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID 50 TO LOWER 60
DEW POINTS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE HELPED SOME
DENSE FOG TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SO WE HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM. THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT MOST VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ONE MILE.

FOR TODAY...WE EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE
A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LIFT/
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEST COAST UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MEANDER EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR NORTH TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ENHANCED LIFT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH FORECASTED
PW'S GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25. IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH
QPFS...MAINLY WITH THE GFS...HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD END SATURDAY WITH A DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DUE TO THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WEAK LARGE
SCALE LIFT.