Trust Me.It Ain't Coming To The S.E.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Winter almost over for all the S.E. by March 10th as Northern Branch retreats to The upper part of the USA....Upper Midwest to N.E. will probably be effected by wintry conditions through at least mid April....but the south will have first dry winter as no measureable snow will be recorded in the Greater Charlotte area this 2004/2005 season in approx. 20 years...JSB

[QCWx]

We recieved 1.5" of snow on January 29th so it isnt a snowless winter.

[DLI2k5]

I hope this models continue to trend colder and drop that 0 degree line down out of NC and into the lower part of SC! We've yet to have any snow this winter and i want some badly! I think this may be our only chance left of having a possibility at any winter wx.

[Stormsfury]

0z ECMWF says NC/VA, Northern Half of SC, Northern GA get a good one Day 6/7...and IMHO, the EC and the UKMET both have the best handle of the pattern (for 0z runs 2/23/05)

[Lowpressure]

WSW up for our area Fredericksburg first accumulations estimates are up to 7 inches per LWX. They are focused on this winter storm but have eluded to the fact that models are looking wintery early next week and future shifts will need to look at this potential.

[QCWx]

0z ECMWF says NC/VA, Northern Half of SC, Northern GA get a good one Day 6/7...and IMHO, the EC and the UKMET both have the best handle of the pattern (for 0z runs 2/23/05)

The 0Z EC was too good to be true. Thats a wind swept and possibly heavy snowstorm for NC at least to begin with and SC/GA as the cold air gets wrapped in. With a setup like that you easily can discuss blizzard conditions in the mountains.

[DLI2k5]

0z ECMWF says NC/VA, Northern Half of SC, Northern GA get a good one Day 6/7...and IMHO, the EC and the UKMET both have the best handle of the pattern (for 0z runs 2/23/05)

How's it looking for Myrtle Beach so far Storm, do you think any part of the SC coast has a shot at some winter wx. with this potential storm?

[Stormsfury]

0z ECMWF says NC/VA, Northern Half of SC, Northern GA get a good one Day 6/7...and IMHO, the EC and the UKMET both have the best handle of the pattern (for 0z runs 2/23/05)

How's it looking for Myrtle Beach so far Storm, do you think any part of the SC coast has a shot at some winter wx. with this potential storm?

QCWx's right ... it was too good of a dream, especially since the 12z guidance seems to be trending away from us ... FWIW, it's still gonna be close for CAE, but as for Myrtle Beach, don't look for anything right now ... the data just doesn't support it...

Gotta run ...

SF

[JenyEliza]

0z ECMWF says NC/VA, Northern Half of SC, Northern GA get a good one Day 6/7...and IMHO, the EC and the UKMET both have the best handle of the pattern (for 0z runs 2/23/05)

The 0Z EC was too good to be true. Thats a wind swept and possibly heavy snowstorm for NC at least to begin with and SC/GA as the cold air gets wrapped in. With a setup like that you easily can discuss blizzard conditions in the mountains.

Is this completely off the table for GA/SC now??

[DLI2k5]

I certainly hope GA/SC are still in the game Jeny! I don't rely on the model runs until they are within a 3 day time frame generally. All they do is flip flop and you really don't know what you're gonna get until you are within the 3 day period of time i think. Especially with this potential storm coming up on the horizon. I think there may be a good chance we get something out of it. So, hold on to hope and let's just hope this work out for both of our states!

[QCWx]

The 12z Euro was certainly warmer and if it verifies it's going to be tough sledding getting any frozen precip south of a line from Monroe, NC to Greenville, SC.

[JenyEliza]

I certainly hope GA/SC are still in the game Jeny! I don't rely on the model runs until they are within a 3 day time frame generally. All they do is flip flop and you really don't know what you're gonna get until you are within the 3 day period of time i think. Especially with this potential storm coming up on the horizon. I think there may be a good chance we get something out of it. So, hold on to hope and let's just hope this work out for both of our states!

Fingers crossed, but I'm not holding my breath. IF it happens for us...it will just be a really pleasant surprise.

[Stormsfury]

The 12z Euro was certainly warmer and if it verifies it's going to be tough sledding getting any frozen precip south of a line from Monroe, NC to Greenville, SC.

yeah, it was ... WHY is it holding back the cold air?? ... the very elongated trough/low back along the MS valley basically holds back the cold air, in which separates the parent cold high damming down on Day 4 to day 5 with a little HP left moving east, while the stronger parent high in Canada rolls over and around that feature ...

AFTERWARDS though, MIGHT get VERY INTERESTING (for southerners) !! cold air, with what appears to be returning subtropical moisture with a plume striping across the GOM coastline into S GA on Day 7, with plenty of cold air (850mb) coming south ...

we'll see ...

[QCWx]

The 12z Euro was certainly warmer and if it verifies it's going to be tough sledding getting any frozen precip south of a line from Monroe, NC to Greenville, SC.

yeah, it was ... WHY is it holding back the cold air?? ... the very elongated trough/low back along the MS valley basically holds back the cold air, in which separates the parent cold high damming down on Day 4 to day 5 with a little HP left moving east, while the stronger parent high in Canada rolls over and around that feature ...

AFTERWARDS though, MIGHT get VERY INTERESTING (for southerners) !! cold air, with what appears to be returning subtropical moisture with a plume striping across the GOM coastline into S GA on Day 7, with plenty of cold air (850mb) coming south ...

we'll see ...

I think our cold air situation at day 4 and 5 will depend on the strength of the low and it's placement. If it ends up being as depicted on the 00z euro it's a major snowstorm for all of NC west of I-95 and all of SC north of I-20 and West of a line from say Columbia to Sumter to just west of FLO. If it's depicted as the 12Z sees it, well NC will only get in on it and probably only north of 40. Either way, it's gonna be damn cold to start the month of march.