Pacific Northwest Weather

andrewr · #2501 Postby **andrewr** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 1:46 am

Yes I agree, lets not jump the gun yet on any patterns. Down to 28F now.

snow_wizzard · #2502 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:01 am

Just when I thought it couldn't get more confusing...it has! The Canadian ensemble actually has more members that show the cold Canadian trough digging down from the NE than members that show the Pacific trough taking over. This could explain why the new GFS run is so disappointing. It was quite set on the Pacific trough winning out. Now it's not so sure. As for me...I am completely lost right now. :roll:

I must admit...The cold weather lover in me wants the Canadian trough to win out, but we need the moisture from the ocean to get the snow going in the mountains. Either way would be fine. The worse would be for us to stay in this no-mans land pattern.

andycottle · #2503 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:01 am

Currently 33 here at 11:02pm with clear skies. I will go for a morning low of 25 again...as that seems the minimum low last few nights and when it occurs...just shortly before 7am. -- Andy

Guest · #2504 Postby **Guest** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 4:09 am

Yeah TT great the only time you post Bellingham's temp is when i post the temp for my house and say that Lake Geneva has ice 5-6 inches thick... You post the city of Bellingham's temp of 50 and show the freeway... Well duhh there isn't going to be frost and cold temps in the sun... What do you expect this isn't an arctic outbreak...

R-Dub · #2505 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:07 am

2/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:06:13 AM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 27.9
Humidity (%) 95.9
Wind (mph) ENE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.19
Dew Point: 25.2 ºF

R-Dub · #2506 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:18 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 300 AM PST TUE FEB 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE IS CENTERED OVR WA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHTS ABV 564DM OVR WA. HEIGHTS THEN FALL THRU FRIDAY SO THE FORECAST IS SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW...PROBABLY END UP BEING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUNDS TOO PESSIMISTIC I THINK. SFC OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGESTS NO LOW LVL MOISTURE AND NO PCPN ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE STARTING FRIDAY...GOOD IDEA TO IGNORE THAT FOR NOW. RATHER THAN HEIGHTS RISING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND NOW THE GFS DIGS AN UPPER TROF TOWARD CALIF SUN AND MON. THAT LEAVES WA IN SLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS A MID LEVEL OVERCAST AT TIMES BUT AT LEAST VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. BY NEXT TUE THE TROF CUTS OFF TO AN UPPER LOW OVR CALIF WITH RIDGING HEADING TOWARD WA AGAIN INTERESTING THAT THE FAR EXTENDED GFS SHOWS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE OVR B.C. AND THEN MOVING OVR THE NE PAC AROUND THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH...PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAD SUGGESTED WE MIGHT GET BACK TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN. MM

snow_wizzard · #2507 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 10:30 am

A mighty nippy 22.5 in covington this morning. I am disappointed that Seattle and Olympia apparently missed their record lows this morning.

The 6z run GFS has completely gone to the Canadian ensemble idea of bringing a cold trough down through western Canada next week. A total change from just two runs ago. The Pacific trough idea has disappeared for now. If the trough comes down from the north, I hope it does it right and slams us with some Arctic air!

andrewr · #2508 Postby **andrewr** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 10:31 am

Down to 23F this morning. Ravensdale is at 19F and Olympia is at 23F which is 2 degrees off the record.

snow_wizzard · #2509 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:12 am

Andrew...You have a link for Ravensdale? If so could you post it? It would appear that the Covington / Maple Valley area is one of the cold spots this morning. That always seems to be the case when the east wind isn't blowing. The average low at my place this month now sits at 29.0

W13 · #2510 Postby **W13** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:46 am

snow_wizzard wrote:Andrew...You have a link for Ravensdale? If so could you post it? It would appear that the Covington / Maple Valley area is one of the cold spots this morning. That always seems to be the case when the east wind isn't blowing. The average low at my place this month now sits at 29.0

Yeah, I would be interested to see a link to the current conditions in Ravensdale, too.

andycottle · #2511 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:29 pm

Our low this morning was 26. Right now at 9:34am we have sunny skies with a temp of 32. -- Andy

andycottle · #2512 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:59 pm

Good morning all. looking the latest 6z and 12z GFS...our dry period contines through at least the 27th, with maybe some light shower activity on the 28th. However, the Cascades might get a dribble or two on the 26th into the 27th. 850MB temps at near +6C for today through about Friday, then lower to +3C over the weekend. 500MB vorticity heights are 558DM rising up to 564DM for tomorrow through Thursday, then lowering down around 552DM this weekend.

Now in the longer range, 6z tries to bring a cold trough by around 3rd of March, while the 12z keeps that trough far from us and keeping us mild but and a little wet at times as a parade of systems hits us every couple days or so. -- Andy

andycottle · #2513 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:01 pm

Well...guess everyone is outside today enjoying the mild and sunny weather.

Currently at 3:05pm we have a nice temp of 57 with DP of 25 and humidity 35%. Hope all of you are enjoying the nice weather!
-- Andy

R-Dub · #2514 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:15 pm

WOW!!! Its a heat wave here today, we hit 47 for a high so far, currently 46 degrees, but dew point still very low at 29 degrees. Still have frost in all of the shady areas. Will post a couple more pics later.
Low this morning was 26.8 degrees

2/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:13:04 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 46.5
Humidity (%) 47.0
Wind (mph) NW 1.8
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.19
Dew Point: 29.1 ºF

andycottle · #2515 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:19 pm

Your only at 47 degrees Randy? wow! A good 10 degree difference here! 57.4 degrees here at 3:19pm. Our high has been 58 so far today.

R-Dub · #2516 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:25 pm

Some of the warm areas as of 3:20PM.............

Packwood, WA 66.4 °F
South Bend, WA 63.4 °F
Aberdeen, WA 62.0 °F
Sammamish, WA 60.8 °F
Elma / Matlock, WA 60.7 °F
Morton, WA 60.6 °F
Covington, WA 60.5 °F
Wishkah, WA 60.2 °F

Some Cool areas.............

Hartley Bay, BC 42.5 °F
Port Townsend, WA 45.1 °F
Blaine, WA 46.3 °F
Tacoma, WA 47.8 °F
Camano Island, WA 48.0 °F
Anacortes, WA 48.6 °F
Arlington, WA 48.8 °F
Oak Harbor, WA 48.9 °F

R-Dub · #2517 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:30 pm

Yeah Andy, only 47, but that is several degrees warmer then it has been!

R-Dub · #2518 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:31 pm

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 315 PM PST TUE FEB 22 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TIED TODAY IN WESTERN WASHINGTON... LOW THIS MORNING RECORD LOW / YEAR SEATTLE-TACOMA 30 30 / 1957 OLYMPIA 21 21 / 1973

andycottle · #2519 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:36 pm

Latest 18z GFS still shows our dry period continuing onward...till about March 2nd. The 3rd may start out dry, but clouds quickly increase during the early morning, then maybe some showers by late morning/early afternoon time. In the longer range....around the 5th/6th time frame, a very cool/cold trough looks to drop out the far northern region of Western Canada, with bulk of the activity clipping Eastern Wa, through all of Montana, Colorado and down the Rocky mountain region.

For the much shorter term...tomorrow looks like a repeat of today. Sunny skies, good dry off shore flow and 500MB Vorticity heights reaching up 564DM. So surface temp probably making into upper 50`s again, and even maybe low 60`s depending on local. -- Andy

R-Dub · #2520 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:41 pm

Sounds like things get a little murky after tomarrow, kind of looks like an inversion setting up.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 320 PM PST TUE FEB 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE BIG UPPER RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS NEAR 60. 850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTH HELPING TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR UP OVER WESTERN WA. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN AS THE RIDGE AXIS HEADS EAST THURSDAY. LOWER AIR MASS IS GETTING A LITTLE STAGNANT WITH MODERATE AIR QUALITY IN MANY AREAS. DON`T SEE THIS IMPROVING MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE ENDS UP OVER MT BY FRIDAY ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY NEAR 140W TO REACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INCREASING THE HIGH CLOUD COVER IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BEEN HOLDING ON TO A DRY FORECAST DESPITE EARLIER GFS RUNS SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF PRECIP AND LOW QPF OVER THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. LATEST 18Z GFS IS NOW DRY...SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A MINOR INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE INCREASING S-SW FLOW ALOFT. 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVEN`T BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT THE PAST 2 DAYS...BUT IF THIS WORKS OUT IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DRY PATTERN WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. KAM &&

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