Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Cloud 9...That is some wild stuff! I understood about 40% of the long text that you posted...lol. That picture is certainly very scary indeed. I will say, I hope you are wrong, but I am not certain you are. God help us if mankind is really stupid enough to try to "control" the weather. It will most assuradly bite us in the a** if we do try.
If anyone is trying to control it, why don't they make it cold in the Pacific NW?
As for the weather we are now seeing. It is still within the envelope of normal activity. There is nothing going on that was not witnessed at some point in the 19th or 20th centuries. On the other hand, it is certainly not typical....
If anyone is trying to control it, why don't they make it cold in the Pacific NW?
As for the weather we are now seeing. It is still within the envelope of normal activity. There is nothing going on that was not witnessed at some point in the 19th or 20th centuries. On the other hand, it is certainly not typical....
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Well off to work, everyone enjoy the fantastic weather today!!!!!!
Some warm areas as of 6:20AM
North Bend, WA 46.2 °F
Anacortes, WA 41.2 °F
Ferndale, WA 40.7 °F
Seattle, WA 40.0 °F
Some cold areas
Pe Ell, WA 22.3 °F
Chehalis, WA 23.6 °F
Lakewood, WA 23.8 °F
Enumclaw, WA 23.9 °F
Dupont, WA 23.9 °F
Some warm areas as of 6:20AM
North Bend, WA 46.2 °F
Anacortes, WA 41.2 °F
Ferndale, WA 40.7 °F
Seattle, WA 40.0 °F
Some cold areas
Pe Ell, WA 22.3 °F
Chehalis, WA 23.6 °F
Lakewood, WA 23.8 °F
Enumclaw, WA 23.9 °F
Dupont, WA 23.9 °F
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Good article on the King5 website today, a lot of what we discussed here. Interesting about the 1977-78 winter, anyone know what happened the next few years? I was alive then, but don't have specific memories.
http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories ... c026f.html
By JIM KLOCKOW / KING5.com
Intraseasonal Oscillations
SEATTLE - It's them or us.
If the rain currently drenching Los Angeles looks familiar, that's because it rightfully belongs in the Pacific Northwest, quite literally.
But a ridge of high pressure hanging out off the West Coast is deflecting Seattle's rain south to the land of sun and fun.
It's been disastrous there, with lives being lost to sink holes, mudslides and flooding rivers.
Here, it's just plain worrisome. Experts say it would take a miracle for the region to build of the snow pack that it needs for the summer water supply.
More interesting: Nobody seems to know why it's happening.
Consider: Since last July, L.A. has gotten twice the amount of rain that Seattle usually gets during the same period.
Contrast that to news this week that Washington State Department of Transportation workers announced they would begin punching through the snow covering the North Cascades Highway on Monday, Feb. 28.
The effort could take weeks, but would still best the March 22 record for getting the path through Washington Pass open, set in 2001.
What's confusing is that in previous winters that have been unusually warm, wet, cold or dry, there's always been a usual suspect or two.
But this time, forecasters can't blame El Nino, or even some of the other less well known drivers of broad climate variation: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation.
Although the West Coast and the rest of the planet is in the grips of an El Nino event, which typically brings warmer and sometimes drier winters here, it's a weak one and doesn't explain the weather we're having now.
What experts do know is that the high pressure pressure ridge off the coast is lingering much longer than usual and deflecting the weather that might otherwise be headed our way to the north and south instead.
Why is another question.
"We don't know why there's this ridge that's shunting all the precip away from us," Washington State Climatologist Phil Mote said.
Could it be global warming?
"We can't answer it," said U.W. research scientist Nate Mantua, with the Climate Impacts Group.
Variations in local weather are often just that, he said, and one weird winter does not add up to global warming.
Abnormal weather is tied up in changes in the jet stream, he said, meaning that while regions may have warmer winters, others may have colder ones and the average isn't necessarily affected.
KING 5 Meteorologist Rich Marriott calls the current pattern and the havoc it is wreaking on the region's snow pack, "a harmonic convergence of bad luck."
The Crystal Mountain ski area was mostly bare at the end of January, the typical height of the ski season.
Marriot says there's about zero chance of any rain between now and the end of February.
But while the reasons for the persistent weather swap with L.A. are unclear, such events aren't altogether unprecedented.
Rainfall in L.A., it turns out, is pushing at rainfall records last set in 1977-78, the wettest water year on record there since 1883-84.
In that year, Washington State was so dry that the Washington Pass was never closed, the only year on record that has ever happened.
http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories ... c026f.html
By JIM KLOCKOW / KING5.com
Intraseasonal Oscillations
SEATTLE - It's them or us.
If the rain currently drenching Los Angeles looks familiar, that's because it rightfully belongs in the Pacific Northwest, quite literally.
But a ridge of high pressure hanging out off the West Coast is deflecting Seattle's rain south to the land of sun and fun.
It's been disastrous there, with lives being lost to sink holes, mudslides and flooding rivers.
Here, it's just plain worrisome. Experts say it would take a miracle for the region to build of the snow pack that it needs for the summer water supply.
More interesting: Nobody seems to know why it's happening.
Consider: Since last July, L.A. has gotten twice the amount of rain that Seattle usually gets during the same period.
Contrast that to news this week that Washington State Department of Transportation workers announced they would begin punching through the snow covering the North Cascades Highway on Monday, Feb. 28.
The effort could take weeks, but would still best the March 22 record for getting the path through Washington Pass open, set in 2001.
What's confusing is that in previous winters that have been unusually warm, wet, cold or dry, there's always been a usual suspect or two.
But this time, forecasters can't blame El Nino, or even some of the other less well known drivers of broad climate variation: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation.
Although the West Coast and the rest of the planet is in the grips of an El Nino event, which typically brings warmer and sometimes drier winters here, it's a weak one and doesn't explain the weather we're having now.
What experts do know is that the high pressure pressure ridge off the coast is lingering much longer than usual and deflecting the weather that might otherwise be headed our way to the north and south instead.
Why is another question.
"We don't know why there's this ridge that's shunting all the precip away from us," Washington State Climatologist Phil Mote said.
Could it be global warming?
"We can't answer it," said U.W. research scientist Nate Mantua, with the Climate Impacts Group.
Variations in local weather are often just that, he said, and one weird winter does not add up to global warming.
Abnormal weather is tied up in changes in the jet stream, he said, meaning that while regions may have warmer winters, others may have colder ones and the average isn't necessarily affected.
KING 5 Meteorologist Rich Marriott calls the current pattern and the havoc it is wreaking on the region's snow pack, "a harmonic convergence of bad luck."
The Crystal Mountain ski area was mostly bare at the end of January, the typical height of the ski season.
Marriot says there's about zero chance of any rain between now and the end of February.
But while the reasons for the persistent weather swap with L.A. are unclear, such events aren't altogether unprecedented.
Rainfall in L.A., it turns out, is pushing at rainfall records last set in 1977-78, the wettest water year on record there since 1883-84.
In that year, Washington State was so dry that the Washington Pass was never closed, the only year on record that has ever happened.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good afternoon all. Looking at the latest GFS...06z shows a few light showers by about the 28th into March 1st, while 12z shows no real chance of showers till at least the 4th. That chance of light showers appears to extend for the 5th and 6th. In the longer range, 7th - 11th...another BIG ridge of high pressure keeps us mostly sunny with maybe a high cloud here/there.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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