WSW issued for Philly and Dc!!

[Jrodd312]

WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE... ALL OF DELAWARE... THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS MOMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO FALL.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THURSDAY MORNING, FALL AT ITS HEAVIEST DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY MORNING.

WHILE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON HEAVIER TRAVELED ROADS, UNDER THE PRESENT SCENARIO MOST, IF NOT ALL, UNTREATED ROADS SHOULD BE SNOW COVERED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. CONVERSELY THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE POWDERY SIDE AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS TO POWER LINES.

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. PLEASE MAKE ALL YOUR THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER MIGHT OCCUR, BUT IS NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Wow the storm is tracking further north now. Yesterday Local mets said that philly wasnt going to get anything then i wake up this morning and there is a WSW issued for 5 inches. WOW!!!

[Lowpressure]

Early accumulation estimates for Frericksburg are 3-7 inches. LWX says greater than 5 inches is quite possible. WSW for the entire area. Second clipper like feature to move across Friday keeping snow inthe forecast.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the latest 12 NAM, amounts could be 5-10 inches in a corridor from Fredricksburg to Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia Thursday and Thursday night. This is likely to be a very heavy wet snow also with temps close to freezing, especially on Thursday before dropping below freezing Thursday night. The bottom line, a track possibly a bit further north could promote bigger problems in the big cities and the I 95 corridor.

This will include NYC where a 4-8" snow is possible if the latest NAM solution is correct.
Jim

[ohiostorm]

Snow is now in the forecast for my area of Ohio. Northern trend here?

[Lowpressure]

12 NAM was slightly more north, but not enough to change thinking here in Virginia, Look at the IR sat pic, ther is a lot of moisture poised to move northward, you may be part of the secondary clipper like system we are slated to get Friday.

[ohiostorm]

Looks like we will get some snow from this system. Its in the forecast for tomorrow and it looks to be heading more north on satellites.

[Stephanie]

I saw that Jrodd on TWC this morning. They were still predicting 1 - 3 inches but they had the watch up for a possible 4 inches of snow. Looks like I maybe leaving a TAD bit earlier from work tomorrow.

[Coredesat]

They're calling for 4"+ in the Richmond area. The (unreliable) Weather Channel is calling for 3-6 inches, and our local NBC affiliate (probably also unreliable) is calling for 1-2 inches...but then again, that affiliate also forecasted that Gaston would miss us, and look what happened.

[jacindc]

Anybody got a good estimate for when precip will start at DCA? I've got an 8:25 am Thursday flight outta town that I don't want delayed!

(it ALWAYS snows when I leave town in winter. I haven't yet forgiven Mother Nature for the big Feb. 2002 snow, when I was in Wyoming with sunny skies and 40 deg temps!)

--jd

[Lowpressure]

Looks like best guess would be 4:00 a.m. in Fredericksburg area and closer to 6:00 at Reagan. Column is pretty moist, should not take long to saturate. Give yourself some time, GW parkway gets crazy at first signs of snow even though you will be going against traffic if you are coming from the hill.

[Lowpressure]

System now progged a little faster with snow to start around 3:00 and getting heavy between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Initial estimates are right at advisory/ warning criteria, decision to be made at 9 p.m. update. Looks like 5 inches is a good bet area wide, sleet may play into the mix (as usual) feeling is some places may see 7 inches, I would expect both advisories as well as warnings to come out as soon as they figure out where they think the demarcation lineand any associated forcing will set up. They need to be certain after last weeks major bust around here.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looks like the best estimate is this event will arrive at dawn at DCA and subside around or just after sunset Thursday night with the heaviest snowfall existing between 9 am and 5 pm with rates possibly of 1-2 inches per hour at times. Total snow accumulations could be 5-10 inches from Washington up to Baltimore and Philadelphia. So the consesus maybe to hoist warnings after 9 PM this evening. Amounts appear to be safely in the warning criteria for the I 95 corridor and likewise into southeastern Pennsylvania and southern Jersey including the Delmarva Peninsula as well.

It's also quite possible areas south of Washington into southern MD and central Virginia will see a mix of snow, sleet, and possibly ice later Thursday as warmer air moves in aloft in that particular region. The bottom line is Thursday is gonna be a huge mess as temps will remain below freezing for Washington, Baltimore, and Philly. Richmond will likely be at or below freezing all day with not only snow, but ice as well only complicating the problem.

The coastal areas from Ocean City, MD south to VAB will likely start as snow, but transition to a mix and then liquid as warmer air moves in quickly along the coastal areas. The storm track also favors this scenario..

Will watch it all day tomorrow. But it's not gonna be pretty in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow. The northeast will share in this potentially on Thursday night and Friday.

Jim

[fasteddy77]

Looks like weather channel has already issued a storm warning on it's website for the frederick, MD area, but then when you click for the details it's still showing a watch. I'm looking for the 5 - 10 inches!! We were robbed of the snow earlier this week!!

[Lowpressure]

The Fredericksburg area looks to mix later in Thursday this may keep totals down closer to 5 inches here. Further north however they have raised totals to over 7 inches forthe event. Look for Winter Storm Warnings form Stafford County Northward with Winter Weather advisories south. Keep in mind, isn't the critteria in Richmond less than the 5 inches required in D.C? Due to the lack of winter weather this year in the area, LWX may just issue WSW area wide because it is during the day and not over the weekend.