Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

[ChiTownMC]

Both 0z GFS and NAM take all precip south of here-another near miss-oh well-some day this area will get the big snow-I still think we will be much colder next week!!

Dont worry you will get snow eventully. There is still some time for the models to change

[sertorius]

ChiTownMC:

Thanks-to be honest, the temp. profiles are not very good anyway so it would most likely be rain. We could still get something next week, but it just doesn't look that good-the gfs wants to pump us back up to 50 by Tuesday of next week-models once again all over the place!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning everyone!! A few quick notes as I have a little one already waking up!!!

Today and Tomorrow: We already have rain heading this way-my temp. is 39 degrees and I really doubt I cool off very much more-the low is well south of here, but as has been stated in another thread, warm air is invading-look at temp. profiles, the Freezing line is way out west and North of here. The radar shows the heavier precip is moving more east than north, which would indicate the models did not too bad here-we will prob. wind with more over all, but not be a lot with the heavier stuff to my south-temps. would indicate to me that for Eastern Kansas, this is a rain event. We may be ablt to sneek some lite snow out tonight per the 06Z GFS but it will be close-bascially another lt. rain event for this area. Areas east of me may get more snow, but they will have warm air issues at the surface as well. Just not enough cold air in place this time

Rest of the week: Normal Temps to slightly below normal temps.

Next Week: The EURO continues to advertise below normal temps. with a hint at some precip-the GFS and MRF have gone everywhere-the EURO says cold next Thursday-the GFS and MRF say 50's. I really believe it will be well below normal temp. wise here next week-will we get any precip is the question-way to early for that. The EURO has just been too consistent with this cold shot-however, just a note: the EURO was saying it would be pretty cold here late this week as well, but that is not going to happen. Something to watch for sure and quite possibly our last chance!!!

[sertorius]

Quick update during a study hall:

Well the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM give us a chance tonight-we have close to quater inch of qpf with the whole profile below 32. The radar currently does not look that good accept to the south east of me, but maybe things will pick up later. Basically, we may see some flurries or rain/snow mix here, but that is about it-if the low would somehow lift 50 miles to the North, things would change-radar trends offer no hints of this happening. Also, we are in the mid 30's so this would be one wet mess. Look to warm way up this weekend here-temps. back close to 50-then the bottom still looks to drop out mid week next week-the 12Z EURO still onto a cold pattern with a ridge stretching all the way into the NWT of Canada-a bit too far east for here to get the mother lode, but we will be cold compared to normal-may have some precip as well-The GFS is running much warmer mid week than is the EURO. will be interesting!!

[sertorius]

Just a few quick notes as I take a PowerPoint break.

First of all: Good luck East coast-I hope you get 2-3 good storms the next couple of weeks!!!

Tonight: Currently I'm at 40 degrees-all moisture is south-models over all had the correct idea for this storm for this area-enjoy the white stuff Saint Louis-

Tomorrow-Sunday: Warming trend-highs pushing 60 by Sunday before the front moves thru.

Next Week: here is where things are interesting: The GFS is not nearly as cold as the EURO-I have to believe the EURO as it has had this solution for about 4 days now and has not backed off-things could def. change, but it really looks like, even though we will be on the far western edge, that this area will have some very cold (as compared to normal) temps. next week. Dosen't look like much precip. However, everyone here is so focused on the warmth this weekend, that I would not be surprised to see some folks with thier pants down come next Wednesday-no mention anywhere here of cold air next week by any one. I'm prob. the one that will bust, but looking at the 7 day EURO, it looks cold here next week. Have a good evening!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning!!

The rest of this week is boring indeed for this area untill Sunday when a fairly strong cold front comes thru-untill then, we will warm up nicely beginning today-will there be enough moisture left after the front on Sunday? Too early to say yet-time will tell.

Next Week: Which model will be correct: The GFS or EURO? The Euro is much much colder next week than the GFS-The GFS has us cold Monday then a warm up thru most of next week-the EURO brings the cold down Monday (one day later than yesterday-a trend possibly??) and has this area much below normal (normal high is 47) temp. wise thru next Saturday-our 850 temps. on Wed. are around minus 10. The GFS has 850 temps. at plus 5 on Wednesday. Should be interesting to see which one verifies the best-the battle has been drawn!! I still think you have to follow the EURO as it has been the most consistent-the GFS is still changing details every run-colder for Monday-Tuesday-Warmer Monday-Tuesday etc. Should be interesting to follow!! Have a great day!!!

[sertorius]

Just on a lunch break so thought I'd babble something: the big issue for the central plains: which model will verify: the GFS or the EURO. The Euro for the past 3 days has forecasted a very cold week next week-the GFS has 2 days of cool weather then back up-it has colder weather a week from this Saturday. The GFS does two things: does not establish the vortex in eastern Canada and also stes up the western ridge over the inner mountain west-thus, this area is influenced by the ridge. The EURO does just the opposite-a look at the 500 maps blantantly shows this. No hint has been given here for a cold snap next week-again, if the EURO verifies, there will be some back tracking for sure. I will follow the EURO reluctanly (and to be honest it prob. will begin to change by 12Z today) as the GFS does have the idea of the pattern for this area for the whole winter-time will tell, but the battle has been drawn!!!

[sertorius]

Good Evening everybody!! Good luck to the East coast the next 7 days-you guys may have some real fun!!! For the central plains, looks like three exciting things (when I get done, you will be able to tell just how boring this winter turly has been here!!!)

1. Will we have some flurries Sunday night after the cold air moves in-how much moisture will be left over?? Currently, the NAM, GFS and EURO say no!!!! So that looks like we will see some good rain Sunday night-maybe even a rumble of thunder-then ther cold air comes and all mositure is gone. This of course can change, but this has been a consistent solution.


2. Will we have some flurries or lt. rain on Monday night/Tuesday morning-GFS is bringing more moisture back with a weak s/w. However, our temps. are back into the 40's. Can this intensify and be stronger???

3. How cold will next week be??? This to me is the real fun one-(let's face it-our chances of measurable snow as of now are slim and none and slim is on the way out of town!!) The battle is still drawn between the GFS/MRF and the EURO. The EURO, which has us warming up faster (by Thursday), still has pretty darned cold Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Based on the 850 and 500 charts, we could have highs in the upper 20's-low 30's those two days-that would be close to 20 degrees below normal-strong cold shot for sure. On the opposite corner, is the GFS/MRF: both of those have a one day cold shot on Monday then by Tuesday we are back to normal-above normal then we are colder next weekend (when the EURO has us warmer!!!!) The EURO is still depicting us under the influence of that low over the great lakes and a strong High Pressure comming down and sitting right on top of us on Wed. The GFS, for this area, is much more progressive with everything. I will stick by the EURO as it is over all the best model-however, the GFS is locking onto thew way the pattern has been sine 1-1-05 for this area-fast and progressive air masses. Will be interesting to follow these the next couple of days. I must say, with the EURO backing off a bit from late next week, I would not be surprised to see it begin to loosen the cold Wed. in future runs. Time will tell.

All in all, a pretty boring scenario-just like this winter-I mean, I am excited about below temps. and flurries-how weenish can you get??? Have a good night!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning everybody!!

Just a quick note:

Our chances of frozen precip. look pretty nill per this morning model guidance-the MRF and GFS and GEM give a possibility late next week-but hey, that has been the case all winter.

Cold air: The EURO keeps the trend of back tracking on the cold some what-it does still have us pretty cold Tuesday and Wed. as compared to normal and Thursday just below normal-we then get to normal by Friday. The GFS is much warmer on Tuesday-Wednesday but then colder for the weekend. I really think we will have Tuesday and Wed. be sig. below normal-10-15 degree range-lows close to 20 and highs in the mid-upper 30's. That is a pretty normal occurenece for this time of year esp. considering we are on the back side of the trough and the front side of the ridge. Stuck in the middle as Steelers Wheel would say!!! We can have strong cold shots come down thru out Spring and since we are in that no mans land period here-early Spring-late Winter-the shots can be longer lasting. Also, when we have a farily mild Feb. as we have had, the first of March ususally presents some cold air.

Further thoughts: It really looks like winter is in it's swan song for the central plains-we may get some lt. snow events or wrap around snows etc., but our chances of having a significant winter weather event have in reality gone out the window. If nothing pops up in the next week (like next weekend), it is time for Spring here. The trough will progress back this way some time in march, but by then, that will prob. give us good rains and cold behind. We can have heavey snows in Mid March all the way thru April, but the pattern this winter just doesn't add up to that. Now that I have said this, watch us have a 9 incher in late March like we did this past November-one that is gone in 12 hours, but one that would make our snow totals very misrepresentative of this winter. Sorry for the rambling; all in all: warm this weekend; below normal much of next week-maybe one chance of some frozen precip. in the next 8-10 days. Just about right for this winter!!

[sertorius]

Well, I have nothing as exciting happening here as in the East-pretty much story of the winter (accept 11-22-04 and 1-6-05) My biggest thrill will be to see how cold we get Monday-Wed.!! GFS and EURO still in different camps-will be interesting to follow for sure-but it also accentuates how boring this winter has truly been-excitement over temps.!!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning Everyone!! All eyes are to the East (of Course!!!) and I hope the NAM is wrong and the EURO is correct!! Euro is still on board for significant storm for the East!! For here: Well, just as bland as it has been for most of the winter!!

Today-Monday: Warm today-cooler tomorrow with some rain tomorrow evening-then turning colder-we may I mean may be able to squeeze out one flake tomorrow night but I doubt it-the NAM pushes the precip back a bit so maybe we will have enough left over

Monday-Wed: Much below normal temps. The GFS and NAM have gone over to the EURO's idea of this period being below normal with moderation beginning Wed. Monday looks to be a horrible day with 30-40 MPH NW winds and temps. struggeling to get out of the mid 30's. Pretty typical early March day really.

Wed.-Saturday: As has been the case for much of this winter, we are on the very back side of the trough in the split flow with NW flow-normal temps. with no real action-pretty bland to be honest.

Beyond: The GFS does give hints of cold spells with the possibility of some precip. Of course it has done this all winter as has the EURO. Most of the storms seem to stay south of here. We just don't do well in split flows!!! Time to face the music: we may have a surprise and the GFS needs to be watched, but all in all it is time to put a fork in winter for this area-of course this winter came with it's own fork (and spoon and knife and napkin etc...!!!) Time to start getting the boat ready and start fishing in earnest!!

[sertorius]

The 12Z EURO may give us some hope for next weekend-it may be all rain, but it does have a low tracking from Southern Oklahoma up to the Great Lakes (If I am reading it correctly)-prob. will be nothing and will most likely change, but it is interesting esp. considering this winter so far. Again, good luck to the east coast!!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning!!! Just a quick note as all attention is on the east as well it should be.

Today: Spring time this morning-temps. close to 50 this morning!! Radar does not look to healthy so may not see too much rain today after all-the front is closer at this time than previously thought and that is pushing the gulf mositure South already. (That is what I see anyways!!) Our dry trend continues!!

Monday-Wed: Below normal temps. Monday will be down right miserable really-partly cloudy-no snow-strong North Winds-typical Spring cold front for here.

Beyond: Based on this mornings model runs, and the way the western ridge is setting up, I'd have to say that Winter is def. leaving this area-of course I never really spotted him but that is for another day. Next 10 days looks to be normal temps. to above normal temps. and very little precip. We have really started to dry out the past 3 weeks-will be interesting to see how this trend works out.

Good luck East Coasters!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning everyone!! This will be quick so everyone can focus on the East coast

Today-Wed: Still on tap for below normal temps-the EURO had this nailed 5 days ago of course!!

Wed-Sunday: Moderating back to normal to just above normal-does not look like any real chances of precip-while we can at times do well in a split flow, ususally, the split is right on top of us-the northern stream pushes cold shots down here, but also supp. the southern jet-thus, we get some wind and a few cold shots-just like we have now

Beyond: the 10 day EURO wants to bring more cold air down mid next week as a ridge sets up over the western coast-if only that had happened 3 weeks ago!!!! The GFS and MRF are not as strong with this-could be interesting!!

Good luck to the east!!!

[sertorius]

I need help here: every once in a while I see something white falling from the sky-can anyone tell me what that is?????? We have a few flurries from the cold air wringing out what mosture is left and there is not much so about every 10 min. you can see a flake falling!!! One interesting note: our current temp. is 31-we hit 35 at about 10:00-the Euro hit this 7 days ago (as did the UKMET and GEM)-however, the GFS, NAM, Nogapps had us in the mid 40's today and upper 40's tomorrow. Everyone went with the GFS solution and had tomorrow the beginning of a warming trend. Well, the EURO showed that happening by Thursday-not untill Saturday did the GFS lock onto this and thus we've had much back pedaling with temps. here the past 24 hours. Again, it is a pretty boring winter when you are excited about colder temps.!!

[sertorius]

Good Morning Everyone!!! Just a couple things to note for this area the next 7-10 days. I was going to let this thread die a slow death, but a couple of things have popped up:

1. Today-Sunday: Warming trend with a little set back on Saturday with the Clipper system-we look to just get a glancing blow, but our temps. from this period will be average to just above-should actually be a nice weekend here.

2. Next Week: The EURO, GFS, and MRF show a pretty chilly week next week beginning Monday and going thru Saturday the 12th. All three agree with this idea and the EURO has been on this for about 3 days. It had the cold correct Monday-today for this week, so I really feel we will be below average temp. wise next week. (The western Ridge is setting up in a pretty good place for us to get cold air-in fact, next weeks pattern would have been great in Jan.!!! Too bad it is in second week of March!!) The GFS and MRF show a potent low moving thru the southern plains at 150 hours-as of now, the precip shield does not make it to us with the cold air in place-however, it is the best storm possibility we have had here in about 3 weeks and is 150 hours-much will change, but at least it is there-the EURO does not have this so to be honest I'm really grasping at straws. With this winter, I'll grasp at whatever I can!! Next week may turn out to be our biggest winter week since the first of Feb. Again, as I've said all winter, at least it is something to watch!!!!

[sertorius]

Quick note: Spring is here for the next 3 days as temps. will be in the 50's and 60's. However, next week looks like something could happen. Of course the GFS has backed off everything from yesterday, but the 0z EURO today shows quite a cold (versus norms-my normal is 51 now) scenario next week with a 1006 low traveling thru southern Kansas-who knows-still something to keep an eye on-

[sertorius]

Good Morning!! Spring day here yesterday for sure. We had temps. in the 60's and even had an isolated thunderstorm pop up in the afternoon!!! Warm weather will continues thru at least Monday when things begin to get interesting. Once again we have the battle of the GFS and EURO for next week. The GFS gives this area a one day shot of cool temps. then warms us back up. The EURO says below normal temps. beginning Monday and lasting most of the week. The EURO pegged this week pretty well, so will have to go with the EURO and say next week will be below normal temp. wise. The EURO also hints at the possibility of some precip with this colder air-too bad this set up has to be now and not in JAN!!!

Beyond: There is talk of the trough ret. back to the central plains-that would fir perfectly with the pattern all winter. For this area, I would say that means below normal temps. and rainy with the possibility of back side snow but most of the snow to the North and West of here. There is no doubt that we are due for a late season snow-it has been quite a while-but climo and the past 30 years really argues against it. Time will tell.

[sertorius]

Good Morning Everybody!!! Just a couple quick thoughts before the kids awaken ready to go!!!

1. Today-Monday: Spring continues!! We hit 71 yesterday-today we will be in the upper 50's and then 60 at least on Sunday. Monday is when things begin to change a little bit as we have a pretty good chance of rain.

2. Tuesday-Friday: According to the models this morning, it looks as though the parade of clippers will bring some pretty chilly air down here next week-the GFS and EURO are now in pretty good agreement that it will be below normal here from Tuesday on and both give hints of possibly some precip with this. The EURO has a low cutting thru Arkansas on Thursday with the 850 and 500 temps. well below 0. The GFS now shows a similar scenario. Who knows, but next week does look colder than this week.

3. Beyond: I'm going skiing next Saturday (with my 2 little boys-Ozzie and Harriet and June and Ward have nothing on me!!!) so we will prob. have a blizzard while I'm in Colorado!!! According to the 10 day EURO, we begin to modify into more normal temps. beginning next Saturday-The GFS keeps some cold air around but it doesn't look as cold as this comming week.

All in all, it appears the clipper systems this week will eat away our Spring weather for a time. We are still on the very back side of the trough for the next 10 days, but far enough in to get some colder air into the mix. The EURO shows some southern Jet Energy on Thursday-The GFS wants to drive one of the clippers into Soutern/central Missouri which would give us some lt. precip. on the back side. To be sure, this looks to be an interesting week comming up for this area.

[sertorius]

Good Morning Everybody!! Well, this thread will begin to die a slow death as winter is in all reality about over for this area. Still a couple of possibilities:

1. Tonight-could be enough moisture left over tonight to see a few flakes as the temps. dip below freezing but nothing major-the models ahve really weakened this low comming across.

2. After this, we have a nice warm up thru Sunday just like last week.

3. As has been the case the past 3 weeks, another cold front will shoot thru here Sunday, but the main difference is that both the 0z GFS and EURO and MRF really show some stronger southern energy working into here Monday/Tuesday of next week. Of Course, we have seen this all winter 6 days out only to have it weaken by the time it is supposed to start. Since I will be in Colordao next week, we'll prob. have a blizzard lol!!! Could be something to watch-however, based on climo and this winter, most likely this would be a cold rain with it ending as flurries or a brief period of heavey snow. Nevertheless, this could be something interesting as this appears to be a stronger shot of colder air.

4. 10 days out: EURO brings in a ridge over the central part of the US and places the trough in the Pacific NW-I have not seen the PNA, but the GFS has it much colder day 10 than the EURO and leaves a trough over the central US-too much variability to say anything for sure.

Bascially, the next 2 weeks look to be a roolller coaster temp. wise (typicall March weather for here) with a chance of some winter precip next Monday and tonight.

It has been fun discussing winter here and I hope I didn't bore anybody too much!! Pretty bland winter here-14 inches so far-just could never get cold air and moisture to meet at the same time-had plenty of both just never together!! I will throw something in here before I leave if it looks interesting next week. If not, then this thread will slowly fade away untill next November!!!! Thanks for reading everyone-have a great day and a great summer!!!