"I wouldn't be shocked if we had six."

[SouthernWx]

I do not like singling out Florida as the target. It tends to give other areas a false sense of security.

It shouldn't....not considering the sizable number of historical major Florida hurricanes which passed across the state and slammed into other U.S. states as major hurricanes.

A few examples:

October 1846....severe hurricane obliterated Key West then blasted ashore near Cedar Key. After roaring across the state into the Atlantic, the monster was strong enough to cause major damage along the North Carolina coast, including cutting inlets along Ocraoke Island.

Sept 1896...small, violent cat-3 hurricane roars NNE across Florida from Cedar Key to west of KJAX.....winds over 100 mph in Jacksonville. The damage in SE Georgia was described in the Atlanta newspapers as "indescribable"....dozens died in Georgia as well.

Sept 1919....large 150 mph cat-4 blasts Keys, veers WNW into the Gulf and slams into Corpus Christi, Texas a few days later....hundreds died in Florida and Texas.

Sept 1926...Great Miami hurricane ravages south Florida killing hundreds....then roars into Pensacola/Mobile area, still a major 125 mph hurricane. Damage was catastrophic in Fla Panhandle.

Sept 1928...large intense 929 mb monster plows Palm Beach after killing thousands in Puerto Rico.
After killing another 2000-3000 around Lake Okeechobee, hurricane recurves over Florida, still a major hurricane. Considerable damage into Georgia and South Carolina.

Sept 1947...extremely large intense cat-4 roars across SFla from Broward county to Naples. All of southern Florida devastated....hurricane accelerates toward the WNW and plows New Orleans....causing major damage from Pascagoula west to SE LA; winds gusted to 110 mph at Baton Rouge....over 120 at KMSY. Storm surge at Gulfport harbor 14.8'..second only to Camille at that location.

Sept 1960...."Donna". Slammed Keys...inland over Fort Myers, then recurved over Lakeland to Daytona Beach.....re-intensified to cat-3 before slamming North Carolina to Long Island...wind gusts over 130 mph at Block Island, RI

I'm sure everyone in Lousiana remember what Betsy and Andrew did AFTER smashing Florida.....Betsy caused more death and destruction in Louisiana than in Florida.

Just because Florida has entered another hurricane cycle shouldn't cause anyone to breath a sigh of relief. First, because so many landfalling Florida major canes end up being major Texas canes, major Louisiana canes, major Carolina canes, etc......ALSO, just because one area is hit most often during a hurricane cycle doesn't mean other areas can't be. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 should be a vivid example to everyone....killing 400+ in Louisiana and Texas during a decade in which all hurricanes seemed attracted to the east coast (**also Opal slammed into the Florida panhandle during a Carolinas major hurricane cycle).

PW

[AussieMark]

since the increased activity in 1995

North Carolina has received their fair share of Hurrciane strikes

and some were even close proximity

Look at 1996 Bertha and Fran were only 6 weeks apart.

and Dennis and Floyd were a mere 2 weeks apart.

So to say thats its just Florida is a bit silly as there are more states than just Florida.

because of what happened last year would Florida be a state that everyone will be watching?

[caneman]

I don't think anyone is saying just Florida but folks read up on your Hurricane history and it is clear that if we are entering a phase like pre-1950, Florida will get slammed and slammed hard by majors. Many of these secondary hits to other States are not as major as the first srike on FLorida. What does this mean for Florida? Loss of tourism? Insurance rates that won't be affordable. Loss in Home values due to people not moving here? As SouthernWx said, if if we get 30 or 40 years of major Hurricance activity like pre-1950, it will be of far greater impact than it was pre-1950. Turst me on this folks. Significantly greater population, far more housing and far more expensive housing. My insurance company tried to raise my rates 40% to 50% from the 2004 activity. Thank God the Goverment stepped in to cap them. But tell me - With a few more years of this type of activity do you think the Goverment will be able to do anything? Of course not because more than likely insurance companies will stop writing in Florida.

[SouthernWx]

So to say thats its just Florida is a bit silly as there are more states than just Florida.

Not when you have spent three DECADES of your life researching hurricanes and hurricane cycles as I have....and KNOW what is about to happen. Floridians DESERVE to know the truth. I won't lie to you.....knowing what I know, and what is IMO about to occur there: IF I lived in southern Florida....I'd be thinking seriously about selling my home and relocating to a safer state.

What I'm expecting to happen in Florida the next 20-30 yrs isn't science fiction....it's ALL happened before. Replay the hurricane seasons of 1926-1935 and Florida will be a shell of itself...IMO the economic catastrophe/ collapse there will affect the entire nation.

Between 1961 and 2003, the Florida PENINSULA was only impacted by 2 major hurricanes....or 18% of "normal" for a 43 yr period. Nature ALWAYS balances the scales.....decades of drought are usually replaced by decades of flood. The intense hurricane drought between 1961-2003 will IMO replaced by a flood of major landfalling hurricanes -- and unlike the 1919-1950 era when south Florida was sparsely populated, this time there will be 13 million residents in the path....and billions upon billions upon billions of insured property in harms way.

A large cat-3 in North Carolina is bad.....a large cat-4 in south Florida is much, much worse. Let a LARGE hurricane of Hugo's landfall parameters (934 mb/ 120 kt) take Andrew's path from Homestead to just south of Marco Island....you'll see Miami, Miami Beach, and southern Broward county innundated; completely destroyed. It happened in September 1926....IMO it is only a hurricane season or two from happening again.

PW

[Aquawind]

.. I am still not selling.. Gimme those premiums.. Someday I will be a FEMA Gold card member and everybody will envy me..

Paul

[caneman]

So to say thats its just Florida is a bit silly as there are more states than just Florida.

Not when you have spent three DECADES of your life researching hurricanes and hurricane cycles as I have....and KNOW what is about to happen. Floridians DESERVE to know the truth. I won't lie to you.....knowing what I know, and what is IMO about to occur there: IF I lived in southern Florida....I'd be thinking seriously about selling my home and relocating to a safer state.

What I'm expecting to happen in Florida the next 20-30 yrs isn't science fiction....it's ALL happened before. Replay the hurricane seasons of 1926-1935 and Florida will be a shell of itself...IMO the economic catastrophe/ collapse there will affect the entire nation.

Between 1961 and 2003, the Florida PENINSULA was only impacted by 2 major hurricanes....or 18% of "normal" for a 43 yr period. Nature ALWAYS balances the scales.....decades of drought are usually replaced by decades of flood. The intense hurricane drought between 1961-2003 will IMO replaced by a flood of major landfalling hurricanes -- and unlike the 1919-1950 era when south Florida was sparsely populated, this time there will be 13 million residents in the path....and billions upon billions upon billions of insured property in harms way.

A large cat-3 in North Carolina is bad.....a large cat-4 in south Florida is much, much worse. Let a LARGE hurricane of Hugo's landfall parameters (934 mb/ 120 kt) take Andrew's path from Homestead to just south of Marco Island....you'll see Miami, Miami Beach, and southern Broward county innundated; completely destroyed. It happened in September 1926....IMO it is only a hurricane season or two from happening again.

PW

Well said.

[HurricaneBill]

Let a LARGE hurricane of Hugo's landfall parameters (934 mb/ 120 kt) take Andrew's path from Homestead to just south of Marco Island

PW

No!!!!!!! Not Marco Island!

[AussieMark]

So to say thats its just Florida is a bit silly as there are more states than just Florida.

Not when you have spent three DECADES of your life researching hurricanes and hurricane cycles as I have....and KNOW what is about to happen. Floridians DESERVE to know the truth. I won't lie to you.....knowing what I know, and what is IMO about to occur there: IF I lived in southern Florida....I'd be thinking seriously about selling my home and relocating to a safer state.

What I'm expecting to happen in Florida the next 20-30 yrs isn't science fiction....it's ALL happened before. Replay the hurricane seasons of 1926-1935 and Florida will be a shell of itself...IMO the economic catastrophe/ collapse there will affect the entire nation.

Between 1961 and 2003, the Florida PENINSULA was only impacted by 2 major hurricanes....or 18% of "normal" for a 43 yr period. Nature ALWAYS balances the scales.....decades of drought are usually replaced by decades of flood. The intense hurricane drought between 1961-2003 will IMO replaced by a flood of major landfalling hurricanes -- and unlike the 1919-1950 era when south Florida was sparsely populated, this time there will be 13 million residents in the path....and billions upon billions upon billions of insured property in harms way.

A large cat-3 in North Carolina is bad.....a large cat-4 in south Florida is much, much worse. Let a LARGE hurricane of Hugo's landfall parameters (934 mb/ 120 kt) take Andrew's path from Homestead to just south of Marco Island....you'll see Miami, Miami Beach, and southern Broward county innundated; completely destroyed. It happened in September 1926....IMO it is only a hurricane season or two from happening again.

PW

Sorry I didn't mean it the way I said it.

I just meant all states need to keep a eye out.

Florida statistically has the most strikes but other states also get hammered.

Look how often North Carolina was pounded in the 1953-1955 period

and again in the 1996-1999 period

I know its only 3 -4 year period compared to Floridas decadal runs

but other states can quite easily get targeted time after time again but just not on the same scale that Florida does.

[SouthernWx]

Sorry I didn't mean it the way I said it.

I just meant all states need to keep a eye out.

No problem my friend. I understand what you mean, and agree....all states should be prepared and ready every hurricane season. Hurricanes are unpredictable...as are hurricane seasons.

Look at 1957...all throughout that decade, major hurricanes had targeted the U.S. east coast; Carol, Edna, Hazel, Connie, Ione...then Helene in 58' and Gracie in 59' -- but look at what happened in 1957..."Audrey", a large 140-145 mph cat-4 slams Louisiana on JUNE 27th. The surprise factor of such an intense hurricane so early in the season caused many of those 400 to perish; they didn't believe warnings.

The same thing could happen now...if folks are foolish enough to think ONLY Florida is in the crosshairs. Last season, hurricane Ivan was very destructive....and didn't hit the peninsula; in fact, didn't miss Alabama, Mississippi...even New Orleans by too much.

The very fact a powerful hurricane could slam Florida.....weaken some while crossing the state but reintensify into a powerful hurricane again before impacting another state should frighten EVERYONE. Past intense Florida hurricanes have went on to devastate Texas (1919), Louisiana (1888, 1947, "Andrew", "Betsy"), Mississippi (1947), Alabama and the Florida panhandle (1926)....and the U.S. East coast from North Carolina to New England (1846, "Donna").

The most destructive "realistic" U.S. hurricane disaster I can fathom (and a large cat-4/5 cane into New York City ISN'T realistic) would be for a large 155 mph monster hurricane to obliterate Miami/Ft Lauderdale....cross the Everglades and cause major damage to Florida's SW Coast (Ft Myers-Naples); then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, still a very powerful hurricane (130+ mph)....and make a second direct hit into Greater New Orleans OR Houston/ Galveston at full intensity (155 mph).

IMO the total property damage in this scenario would top 150 billion....possibly 200 billion or more.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

while a cat 4 into NYC is very unlikely, a cat 3 is possible, as is a strong cat 2.

What we need to remember is that there, a strong cat 2 or marginal 3 (which is what the Long Island Express hurricane was) would cause hundreds of billions of dollars worth of damage. This type of landfall into NYC due to the coastal shape, would cause far more damage than anything hitting MIA or NO

[AussieMark]

Sorry I didn't mean it the way I said it.

I just meant all states need to keep a eye out.

No problem my friend. I understand what you mean, and agree....all states should be prepared and ready every hurricane season. Hurricanes are unpredictable...as are hurricane seasons.

Look at 1957...all throughout that decade, major hurricanes had targeted the U.S. east coast; Carol, Edna, Hazel, Connie, Ione...then Helene in 58' and Gracie in 59' -- but look at what happened in 1957..."Audrey", a large 140-145 mph cat-4 slams Louisiana on JUNE 27th. The surprise factor of such an intense hurricane so early in the season caused many of those 400 to perish; they didn't believe warnings.

The same thing could happen now...if folks are foolish enough to think ONLY Florida is in the crosshairs. Last season, hurricane Ivan was very destructive....and didn't hit the peninsula; in fact, didn't miss Alabama, Mississippi...even New Orleans by too much.

The very fact a powerful hurricane could slam Florida.....weaken some while crossing the state but reintensify into a powerful hurricane again before impacting another state should frighten EVERYONE. Past intense Florida hurricanes have went on to devastate Texas (1919), Louisiana (1888, 1947, "Andrew", "Betsy"), Mississippi (1947), Alabama and the Florida panhandle (1926)....and the U.S. East coast from North Carolina to New England (1846, "Donna").

The most destructive "realistic" U.S. hurricane disaster I can fathom (and a large cat-4/5 cane into New York City ISN'T realistic) would be for a large 155 mph monster hurricane to obliterate Miami/Ft Lauderdale....cross the Everglades and cause major damage to Florida's SW Coast (Ft Myers-Naples); then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, still a very powerful hurricane (130+ mph)....and make a second direct hit into Greater New Orleans OR Houston/ Galveston at full intensity (155 mph).

IMO the total property damage in this scenario would top 150 billion....possibly 200 billion or more.

PW

Where did Audrey make landfall btw

on some maps it looks around the Louisiana/Texas border

is it counted as a Louisiana strike

[SouthernWx]

Where did Audrey make landfall btw

on some maps it looks around the Louisiana/Texas border

is it counted as a Louisiana strike

Audrey's eye crossed the Gulf coast near the Texas/Louisiana border...in the Sabine Pass area.

Most of the deaths occurred in Cameron Parish, Louisiana....but IMO Audrey caused major hurricane conditions (111 mph+) in both LA and TX.

FYI Derek: friend, you have your opinion on the most destructive U.S. hurricane scenario and I have mine...lets just leave it at that.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

perry,

your scenario is far more likely than is mine as a strong 2 or 3 has only occurred twice (1938 and 1954) on Long Island

[robag]

This predicted cycle of storms for southern Florida makes me feel extremely vulnerable here in Key Largo! I love my house and I am really afraid that my luck will run out soon.

[JTD]

Perry, wow. Reading your thoughts was chilling Let's hope that there's some higher power that will prevent this.

[Brent]

I think the pattern is setting up for a higher than average number of landfalling storms again this year, but that the focus is going to be further west.

Let's see... I was on the weak west sides of Frances and Jeanne, and missed Charley to the east all together(was 90 degrees and Sunny as he raced across Florida).

I'm going to need medication this year if it's anywhere close to as bad as last year.

[drdoom]

Is there anyway to check where the bermuda high was located during other active cycles florida encountered during the past? Is it possible the high could settle in for a multi year stay? I have lived in Central Florida since 1979 and Charley was a definate change when it comes to hurricanes.