First Call Accumulation Map For Thur-Fri Storm

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Confidence is at a mid range, I trust the ETA as it has out-done the GFS all winter, so I'm going with this look at the moment...



Impact:

D.C.- around 8"
Baltmore- around 8"
Philly- 9"
Lancaster- 7"
Reading- 6"
Allentown- 6"
Harrisburg- 4"
Scranton- 3"
NYC- 10"
Hartford- 7"
Providence- 10"
Boston- 6"
Cape Cod- 12"

[krysof]

nicely done, nearly accurate. In fact it could be very close to what you say it will be. Except as of now I think NYC will have 7-8 inches and the same for Philly about 8 inches. If the northern trend continues than the amounts would go up in the northern spots but areas further south would get warmer air and all that snow forecasted could be cut down drastically.

[Jrodd312]

Very high totals Jer. I really like them and think they are quite possible.

[krysof]

they are not very high, they are just right

[Jrodd312]

they are not very high, they are just right

Chill kysrof all i am saying is that local mets are saying 4-8. I trust Jer because he has been very right throughout these storms.

[krysof]

4-8, the local mets here are saying 4-6, but they have been very inaccurate this season. I mean for the blizzard of 05, they first predicted 2-4, than 3-6, and drastically went up when the heavy snow was already falling, but still they said 6-12.

[Lowpressure]

Graphics look pretty good. Not quite sure Fredericksburg will see 8 inches. We could if no mixing occurs, but we always seem to be in the slop. I would see us closer to 5 inches, but will gladly take 8 inches as per your graphics. Your harsh demarcation in the southern zones looks to be very well done.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Not to break up a good fight... But...

The forecast is a touch on the high side, I made the map knowing that fully, as I feel the pattern that will set up a wild week next week, is starting to make it pressence felt now... I believe it is why this storm is coming so much further north... I also believe it will add more fire into the system...

As for the forecast, I did say that confidence is at a mid level, I'm worriyng about the southern fringe as Krysof pointed out, also due to some a much colder airmass northwest of the big cities there may be a significantly higher snow ratio... this could actually develop two seperate heavy snow bands one south one north... This was actually included in the first map I made, I have scrapped that idea for now... but am deeply troubled by it still...

Here is the orginal map that I didn't release:

[Stephanie]

I think your second map is more accurate. Good job!

[Jrodd312]

Not to break up a good fight... But...

The forecast is a touch on the high side, I made the map knowing that fully, as I feel the pattern that will set up a wild week next week, is starting to make it pressence felt now... I believe it is why this storm is coming so much further north... I also believe it will add more fire into the system...

As for the forecast, I did say that confidence is at a mid level, I'm worriyng about the southern fringe as Krysof pointed out, also due to some a much colder airmass northwest of the big cities there may be a significantly higher snow ratio... this could actually develop two seperate heavy snow bands one south one north... This was actually included in the first map I made, I have scrapped that idea for now... but am deeply troubled by it still...

Here is the orginal map that I didn't release:

So which map are you more certain on?

[Lowpressure]

NWS Wakefield is going with 1 inch in Richmond metro (Henrico Couty) With 3-4 inches in the northern counties (Caroline). Here in Frederickburg(Stafford) they are still going with 4-6 as a total-depending on mixing or not. This is just info in regards to your southern graphics.

[Guest]

NWS Wakefield is going with 1 inch in Richmond metro (Henrico Couty) With 3-4 inches in the northern counties (Caroline). Here in Frederickburg(Stafford) they are still going with 4-6 as a total-depending on mixing or not. This is just info in regards to your southern graphics.

Good point and as well i think the heaviest snows will fall in a line from southern DE (near the MD line) west to just south of DC and then up to the north to the south side of Boston perhaps. 6-10 For DC/ Blatimore, Philly and NYC and the Cape. N/W and S/E lesser amounts be it from mixing as the case will be along the southern Delmarva from near the DE/MD South and south of DC as well or less moisture to work with as may be the case up around Boston and areas to the nw of the bigger cities. Richmond looks good for 2-4 atleast then mix to rain perhaps and then end as some snow perhaps. Wouldnt suprise me to see the Tidewater area come in with a quick inch before a changeover to mainly rain.

Some and i say some could squeak out a foot from this but that will be for a few select locations only PERHAPS.

I'll feel better about this once the 00z runs are out. Mainly wanna see if the north trend continues. Which if it does could put DC more into a mixed bag of precip and put Boston in with more snow.

[yoda]

The 0z runs will be crucial IMO. Hopefully everything stays where it is...

[Lowpressure]

Would not be surprised to see 00z flip flop back a little south. At least that has been the trend all winter.

[krysof]

This storm is not worth it, there is one more chance for a major snowstorm and that is early next week, after that, I believe chances will greatly diminish. I am beginning to feel that maybe I was wrong and this storm will be a bust. I'm done with winter and storm threats, I just want spring already and nice warmth, no teens or 20's, but 50's 60's and 70's in the mid to late spring.

[Lowpressure]

This storm is not worth it, there is one more chance for a major snowstorm and that is early next week, after that, I believe chances will greatly diminish. I am beginning to feel that maybe I was wrong and this storm will be a bust. I'm done with winter and storm threats, I just want spring already and nice warmth, no teens or 20's, but 50's 60's and 70's in the mid to late spring.

Oh brother, not again!!

[krysof]

but the storm early in this week was expected to produce the same amounts as this one, but everything melted, same thing with this one, totals could be less.

[fasteddy77]

Looks great!! Let's hope for the 8++ in the DC area!!

[Persepone]

Our local NWS office agrees with you about Cape Cod (we are forcast to get buried again). Note that "bold" is mine.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 PM EST WED FEB 23 2005

MAZ017>024-RIZ001>008-250900-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATTLEBOROUGH...BARNSTABLE...BARRINGTON...
BRISTOL...BROCKTON...FALL RIVER...FALMOUTH...NANTUCKET...
NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT...NORTH ATTLEBOROUGH...PLYMOUTH...PROVIDENCE...
SOUTH KINGSTOWN...TAUNTON...VINEYARD HAVEN...WARWICK AND WOONSOCKET
230 PM EST WED FEB 23 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH. THE WATCH INCLUDES RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY SNOW
TO RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY BECOME HEAVY
BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE
ENDING BY MID MORNING.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH 8 INCH
AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER
WEATHER DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

$$

JWD/WTB

[Guest]

but the storm early in this week was expected to produce the same amounts as this one, but everything melted, same thing with this one, totals could be less.

I'll be certain to post the amounts tomorrow and as well be waiting around for what happens next week.