Joe B. on Texas freeze...

[Johnny]

Last week someone here posted Joe Bastardi's free column. It said that deep South, Texas could see a deep freeze 10 days out or so. I believe that was Wednesday of last week. As of now I don't see any talks of any kind of cold weather like this effecting parts of Texas this far South. Is this still in the cards?

[ETXHAMXYL]

I was wondering the same thing. I don't get too excited since every prediction dealing with any type of wintery Precp. in NTX has been for not. Everything heads this way but always gets shoved to the East and we only get modified fronts or backdoors as they call'm.
It looks like the same thing might happen again according to local mets, accuweather, and the NWS.
I think Texas has gotten fooled into thinking 50s is cold. It seems that we get up into the 60's, 70's and even now the 80's and a "Cold" front comes down and cools us off to the 50's (which is normal) and everyone thinks that is a Big cold front. Seems like if we were at 110 in July and got a cold front that cooled us down to say 97 that is about the same thing now. It would still be hot but we'd be fooled into thinking it was so much colder.
Forget the Frozen stuff and lets start looking for some Storms to Spot!!!
Got my Skywarn training and ready to Roll. This Ham is ready to Spot!

[CaptinCrunch]

Dallas/Fort Worth Forecast:02/23 thru 03/1

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 67. North northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North northeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A chance of rain and thunderstorms before noon, then a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 37. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high around 58. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 40.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 61.


No freezing temps here!!

[Scorpion]

Too late in the season IMO for extended periods of sub freezing temps. Sun too high .

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Mesquite trees are not in full bloom here. It is possible we still might get close before March 15, IMO.

[jeff]

Mesquite trees are not in full bloom here. It is possible we still might get close before March 15, IMO.

The mesquite's are a good rule of thumb to use along with Pecans.

[Stormsfury]

Too late in the season IMO for extended periods of sub freezing temps. Sun too high .

Under the right conditions, higher sun angle, and being late in the season doesn't necessarily hold weight WRT to flooding the country with good ol' Canadian/Arctic air ...

however, in this case, I really do not believe the plunge of cold air that's progged later this weekend, and particularly into next week will make it down into the TX region (as it's shunted east and southeastward around a displaced PV in the GL regions on Day 6/7 ...

SF

[Portastorm]

The GFS would agree with you Stormsfury ... but the European would not. In fact, the European -- with the massive upper low in the northern Plains --- send the bitter cold straight down into Texas.

Top that off with a southern stream system out west that it shows AND .... oh boy, has it ever iced or snowed in central Texas in March??

[gboudx]

Yeah, check out this model solution:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

[vbhoutex]

Not saying we are going to get anything like this, but Ihave seen it go down to 25ºf here in Houston on March 20 before, many years ago. If the Euro veifies we will definitely be getting into the 30's even down here in SE TX. and it does look like a possible winter precip situation up in the Hill country and N Central TX.

[sertorius]

vbhoutex:

The EURO def. has the middle and middle southern part of the country very cold as compared to normal-I have been following this for a few days-it is quite interesting to me as the GFS has nothing of the sort at least as of today's 0z run-will be interesting to see which one verifies. No hints from anyone of any kind of cold (accept Monday) for the Kansas City area-if the EURO verifies, will be alot of backtracking up here!! Time will tell!!

[gboudx]

Yeah, sertorius, the Euro has been consistent. From what I understand the GFS does not handle split-flow systems well at all. And considering that's the pattern we are in, it's solutions should probably be tossed beyond 2-3 days.

[Kennethb]

Anyone out there recall the deep south snow of March 23-24, 1968? We had about 1 inch here in Baton Rouge, and 2-3 inches to the north.

Anyone know of any analogs to that period?

[CaptinCrunch]

I expect a good freeze (28 to 30) across much of NTX by around March 8. Nothing that will last of course but a night or two below freezing. A strong Canadian high over NW Canada should pull down across the Northern U.S and bring the cold air. That should do it for the winter season here in TX as the later part of the month looks to be warm and stormy.

[sertorius]

CaptinCrunch:

I have not yet realy seen the 12Z EURO, but the EURO the past 3 days have been showing a colder solution than the GFS or MRF-if the EURO were to verify, Kansas City-Gulf would be below normal thru next Saturday-the 0z Euro was much colder at day 10 than the GFS or MRF. Who knows-will be interesting to follow-we could possibily se one more 4-5 day shot of colder temps. or, it could all shift east and we can get our fishing poles out!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptinCrunch:

I have not yet realy seen the 12Z EURO, but the EURO the past 3 days have been showing a colder solution than the GFS or MRF-if the EURO were to verify, Kansas City-Gulf would be below normal thru next Saturday-the 0z Euro was much colder at day 10 than the GFS or MRF. Who knows-will be interesting to follow-we could possibily se one more 4-5 day shot of colder temps. or, it could all shift east and we can get our fishing poles out!!!

I sure could use some colder weather, the front that came thru yesterday did bring down the temps here, right now we're at 46 which is 15 degrees below the normal high (61) for late February, and expecting a low of 36 tonight. How ever our forecast thru next Wednesday is about normal with highs in the low 60's and upper 50's with a chance of rain Monday.

I think the EURO is over doing the cold and the GFS is under doing it, so I'm trying to find a middle solution for the next 10 days.

[Yankeegirl]

It sure is chilly here! Wednesday I had to have my a/c on, and now I have on my heater!! Its 46 out now... Brrr!

[CaptinCrunch]

We had a nice frost on the pumpkin this morning, I even had to scrape the windows of the car. It was nice to have the fireplace going last night.

[Johnny]

I'm sure I overread but what is the time period for this cold to come down into Texas...if it does at all? Thanks.

[Guest]

Dallas/Fort Worth Forecast:02/23 thru 03/1

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 67. North northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North northeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A chance of rain and thunderstorms before noon, then a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 37. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. do u have the new 8-10 day crunch any more cold shots or snows comin for north tx let me know where do u go to see the 8-10 day euro.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high around 58. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 40.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 61.


No freezing temps here!!