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andycottle
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#2621 Postby andycottle » Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:17 pm

Looking at this mornings 6z and 12z GFS...a showery type pattern still looks on track for the evening of the 28th. Then March 1st - 4th, we have showers just about every day or so, but in the longer range 5 - 12th, another big high pressure system appears takes hold out over the pacific and PNW which leaves in the dry slot once again. -- Andy
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AnthonyC
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#2622 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:39 pm

Ahhh...just as I left Seattle. Sunny and currently 63F outside!!! Almost warmer than Phoenix, but I'm not complaining.

In any event, Phoenix was awesome and the weather wasn't as bad as almost every media station is declaring!! It's unbelievable to see how every top story dealt with some sort of wild weather in the southwest...it's really not that bad. I know California was hit harder but still, give me a break!!

Here is a brief synopsis of the weather on a daily basis.

Sunday-Not a bad day at all...but I guess many consider it bad for Phoenix. About 60F with partly cloudy conditions...a few afternoon thunderstorms but nothing that affected our hotel.

Monday-This was the interesting day. We went to the Grand Canyon and it was a complete blizzard. There was thunder in the distance and snowfall rates of probably 2 inches an hour. I wish you guys could have seen it...esp. TT-SEA and R-Dub...you guys would have been amazed. After about six inches, we left and it took almost an hour to get below the snow level...which was 6k. We headed back to Phoenix and it was raining HARD!! Very HARD!! There was flash flooding all over the place, and accidents were lined up along the highways. A local river next to our hotel flooded and several condos were forced to evacuate.

Tuesday-AWESOME day!! A few afternoon thunderstorms that you could see in the distance, but nothing spectacular. Almost 70F. We hung by the pool almost all day.

Wednesday-BEST DAY of the week...sunny all day and 74F. Really made me miss summer. Hung by the pool again.

I'm a little tired right now, but I'll be posting more later. Sorry I didn't make any updates in Phoenix...I was busy almost everyday and never had time to get online. Actually, I don't remember the last time I went over five days without using the computer. lol. Like I said before, I'll have much more later!!

Anthony
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#2623 Postby andycottle » Thu Feb 24, 2005 4:17 pm

Hey,

Good to hear your back Anthony! Bet you had an awsome view of Rainier coming back into Sea-Tac. I know thats the the first thing I always look for when going or coming back from Ohio. Always a nice site to Rainier below you. -- Andy
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#2624 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Feb 24, 2005 4:40 pm

And it looks like this rex block continues for the forseeable future...

I brief zonal flow develops the middle of next week, but long range models indicate another amplified ridge off the west coast...almost identical to what we've experienced the past two weeks. Very hard to believe, but this winter has been strange so I'll believe anything at the moment.

If the long range models are correct, after a brief showery pattern the middle of next week, we could be dry for another two, three week stretch. At this point, the mountains are done for the season.

If you didn't know what month it was and you flew over the cascade mountains, they look like something you'd see at the end of May, beginning of June. It's ridiculous if you ask me. But just head down to Phoenix...their local ski resorts are having the best season in over 25 years. Actually, when we were driving through Flagstaff the other day, there were two-foot drifts and four inches of fresh snow on the ground.

At this point, I can see March 2005 being almost identical to March 2001...huge ridge in the west, trough in the east. All signs point to this.

But then comes the big question. What will the summer be like?! My dad was making a comment about this the other day. He says anytime the winter's been like this...and there have been very few; 1977, 1993 are a few examples...late spring and all of summer go down the drain. If this type of weather means a bad summer, I want this gone right now.

Anthony
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#2625 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:09 pm

Anthony...There is one big difference with the ridge predicted later on. It will be a full latitude ridge instead of a rex block. That will leave California dry, and give us a solid chance of a retrogression. The 0z and 12z both show the ridge retrogressing in the 14 - 15 day time frame. That could open the door to cold NW flow as we get a little ways into March. I think people should be prepared for weeks of ugly weather as we get toward spring. This farily tale stuff is about to end!

It has not totally been spring for the past two weeks. The average low for the past two weeks has been MUCH below normal in many areas. Today was my 10th straight low of 26 or below. I defy anyone to find a spring where that happened! The average low for for this month at my place stands at 28.7 degrees. This has been one weird month no matter how you slice it!
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#2626 Postby R-Dub » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:28 pm

Welcome back Anthony!!!

2/24/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:26:31 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 55.1
Humidity (%) 32.7
Wind (mph) N 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.09
Dew Point: 30.8 ºF

Low this morning was 28.5 degrees
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TT-SEA

#2627 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:39 pm

R-Dub... holy crap you are getting to a reasonable temperature!!

Wonders never cease.
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#2628 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:48 pm

Just a brief update on my research as to historical matches for we what have been seeing here. I am looking for years that had at least one of the following. A very dry Feb, very low snowfall in the mountains, or very wet in California. I disregarded the winter of 1976 - 77 because it was totally different in every possible way from this winter, except for the fact it was dry. In that winter California was parched, and the NE United States had BRUTAL cold for weeks on end. The results are looking very interesting so far. Almost every year that had a solid parallel with this one ended up leading to cold winters the next season. The years in the 20th century which had the driest Febs were...

1920 - Following winter fairly mild

1928 - Following winter very cold and snowy

1929 - The following winter had one of the coldest Jan's on record

1988 - Following winter very cold and snowy

1993 - Following winter had a fairly cold Nov and Feb...

This is just a rough overview so far. I am going to try to boil this down to the years that had the most similarity overall. That would include the Feb being dry, but cool like this one, and of course years that were wet in Cal, and still somewhat comparable here. It also appears that 1977 - 78 must be considered, because it was another VERY low snow year in the mountains (the inability to get cold and moisture togther, just like this winter). As I stated in an earlier post, the winter 1978 - 79 was a REALLY cold one! We are in good company here!
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TT-SEA

#2629 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:10 pm

Snow_Wizzard... can you tell us about the summers of 1920, 1928, and 1929??
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#2630 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:17 pm

TT...They were all very close to normal, except 1928 was quite dry, and July 28 had some hot weather. The state all time record high was set in July 1928 at Ice Harbor dam...118 I believe.
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TT-SEA

#2631 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:20 pm

Bellingham even got up to 60 degrees today!!

It was 69 degrees at my house today.

Welcome to spring.

We are done with frost now. Finally.

A marine push tonight following our "heat" wave. This is just like summer!!
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AnthonyC
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#2632 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Feb 24, 2005 7:33 pm

Yeah, it's pretty funny to hear about a "marine push". That always happens after a significant heat wave in the summer. Yet isn't it February?! If there wasn't a date on the NWS discussion, you'd think it was either June, July or August. I guess Winter is officially over this year. Like I said many weeks before, I prayed the Winter wouldn't go down the drain after our bout with arctic air/snow...but it did. Just like last year. Hopefully things change next year.

Anthony

Still 53F with clear, blue skies.
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#2633 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:06 pm

Anthony...I ask again, how is this summer when the average low this month has been 28 degrees. That WAY below normal. You guys are only looking at one side of the coin...although I am guilty of that too...Also, the monthly average for Sea - Tac is below normal! Sea - Tac has not even had a record high (although they may eke one out today). This is not very impressive from a warm standpoint, but it is from a dry and clear standpoint. I just don't see how below normal for February makes this warm spring weather. Also...never rule out an Arctic outbreak until late March. We have had them that late before. :D

TT...I am betting on one more cold one tonight. The dew point is still very low. My big hope is that it freezes tonight and then the low clouds move in over the cold air. That could make tomorrow pretty chilly.

A couple of intersting notes...If Sea - Tac does set a record high, it will break the record from my favorite year of 1949. In fact, all of the records for the final week of Feb are from years that led to cold winters. Also (this is old data, so I need to see if it's still true) the longest early year dry spell on record was 12 days from Feb 24 to March 7 1949. Keep the parallels to 1949 rolling in! I am much more pleased with the latter part of this winter, than the end of last winter. This is so reminscent of years that led to the really big stuff! The end of last winter left me very pessimistic in general.
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#2634 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:15 pm

By the way...we also reached the milestone of the 50th low of 32 or below for this winter (my records). That is a pretty respectable number. Perhaps next winter we will finally see 100. That has not happened for a long time.
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andrewr
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#2635 Postby andrewr » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:20 pm

Packwood had a high of 69 today and a low of 24. Talk about a temperature spread.
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#2636 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:26 pm

I just did the math. Sea - Tac has still managed to average 0.4 degree below normal for this week. Statistically, there is no disputing that we have not acheived normal spring temps. Keep in mind the temps have been below normal for now...still a month from spring.
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#2637 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:53 pm

As of 5:45 the temperature has already dropped 11 degrees from our high of 61. The dew point is 26, which is about 5 degrees lower than yesterday. That is very odd considering that marine air is so close. At any rate...one more cold night away from the water. I will be interested to see what happens when the marine push moves into subfreezing air late tonight or tomorrow morning. Funny thing...I have never seen that happen in the summer! :lol:

In fact, I have never seen that happen period. Perhaps we will have cold fog, or cold locked in under a low cloud layer tomorrow. That could certainly help to pad this months below normal temperature average.

I know...I'm being an a**
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#2638 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Feb 24, 2005 9:14 pm

Snow_Wizzard...

I did not say it was summer...I just said it was similar to what we CAN experience during summer. And don't say this weather is something we experience in winter because that's a full-out lie. When is it ever above 65F in winter?! And I don't care about the overnight low...it can still drop to freezing in June...which is officially summer. I think you are missing the big thing here...sunny and warm. Two terms that don't go along with winter...let alone spring. These past two weeks have not been anything close to winter...closer to spring and summer if you ask me.

And to anyone who knows this answer...what's the latest arctic blast we've had in Western Washington? Have we ever had an arctic blast in March? Or April? March of 2002 wasn't an official arctic blast...though it came close in Bellingham. I know March can be a month of extremes...esp. the beginning of the month. But have we ever had a full-out arctic blast?

Anthony
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#2639 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 9:29 pm

Anthony...I respect your opinions. There is certainly no doubt this weather has been exceptional, but everyone seems to miss the point we have not had a monthly average low this low in many years. Not even in Dec or Jan. To me, that adds to the excitement (yes I said excitement) of this pattern. Anything this out of whack is wild to me!

As for Arctic blasts in March...1870 had a wild one on the 12th. I have records for the San Juans that show late afternoon temps in the teens with severe NE gales. The records I have from an observer on Lake Washington showed two highs below freezing with lows in the teens. I can only imagine how cold it was away from the water! There was also 13 inches of snow. 1955 also had a true Arctic blast...Sea - Tac had a high of 29 on one day...that was very early month though. The 1860s also had notable cold spells in March. In a year this whacked out, I would never give up this soon.

TT...I notice the temp in North Bend is falling like a lead brick this evening! 16 degrees off the high as of 6:15.... :eek:
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#2640 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 24, 2005 9:33 pm

And another thing...while it has gotten down to freezing in June, it has not happened since the 1930s. I would be elated to see that happen!
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