

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 240940 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 235 AM MST THU FEB 24 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER STATE. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS H5 LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW CORNER OF AZ THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL AZ TODAY AND THEN WOBBLE OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AS INDICATED BY THE LAPSE RATES AND LOW LI`S. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT DON`T SEE ANY LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF. RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. LOOKING AT MAINLY INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH A DIURNAL NATURE TO THE SHOWERS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIC AT AROUND 6000 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND. A DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS IS EXPECTED AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IN SHOWING A S/WV RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE STATE AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DF
Dennis