Tropical Cyclone PERCY (20P)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Feb 24/0933 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD1 [1003HPA] NEAR 09S 178E AT 240600UTC BASED ON GOES 9 IMAGERY. SYSTEM CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANISED AND LIES IN UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, UK GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTS SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THAT PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW BUT MODERATE THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD2 [1004HPA] NEAR 16.5S 148.5W AT 240600UTC BASED ON GOES 9 IMAGERY. SYSTEM POORLY ORGANISED WITH MAJOR CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LLCC. TD2 REMAINS UNDER 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE WINDS ALOFT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM BUT SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT TREND OF DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.



Finally, after very quiet days the tropics start to heat up and sooner than later a tropical cyclone could pop-up around the world.

[depotoo]

ok - when does the pacific hurricanse season start?
how long does it run?

[chadtm80]

The Pacific hurricane season Starts May 15 2004 in the eastern Pacific, and June 1 2004 in the central Pacific, and runs throughl November 30

[senorpepr]

The Western Pacific and Southern Pacific seasons run year round, but the WPAC sees the most cyclones during the summer and fall months (Jun-Nov) whereas the SPAC sees the most cyclones during their summer months (Jan-Mar). Another note is that the numbering convention for cyclones starts over at 01 on Jan 1st for the WPAC and July 1st for the SPAC.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Correction:

SPAC and Indian Ocean seasons run November 1-April 30 although systems from Sept-Oct are not uncommon in the SW IO.

[HURAKAN]

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

[senorpepr]

Correction:

SPAC and Indian Ocean seasons run November 1-April 30 although systems from Sept-Oct are not uncommon in the SW IO.

...I stand corrected. Thanks Doc.

[HURAKAN]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242051ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S3 179.9E6 TO 10.2S3 175.5W8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8179.6W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 179.0W7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATED IN A 241752Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252100Z0.//




24/2025 UTC 8.2S 178.9W T1.5/1.5 98P -- South Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

We've got a new depression.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 24/2329 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [997 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 179.0W
AT 242100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES-9 VIS IMAGERY, LATEST
SSMI AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEM MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOMENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST. DEPRESSION LIES SOUTH
OF AN UPPER [250 HPA]TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MONSOONAL WESTERLY
WINDS. THE RESULTANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREE CELCIUS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND A CONCENSUS OF
ECMWF, NOGAPS AND UK MAINTAINS THE EASTWARD TRACK BEFORE CURVING IT
SOUTHEAST BY 261200 UTC
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

Tropical Depression Noname (10F/98P) at 24/21Z
8.3S 179.0W
40 mph
997mb

[senorpepr]

Navy upgraded 98P to 20P.NONAME

[senorpepr]

Fiji has upgraded this to Percy...

Gale Warning 084 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/0033 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [995 hPa] centre was located near 8 decimal 5
South 178 decimal 4 West at 250000.
Position good.
Repeat position 8.5S 178.4W at 250000 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast 14 knots and expected to gradually turn
east later.
Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre, increasing to
45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from
northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 9.4S 176.9W at 251200 UTC
and near 8.7S 174.3W at 260000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC WELLINGTON. VOS
reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679
6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 083.

[senorpepr]

FXZS60 NSTU 250100
AFDPPG

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND

THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS

2 PM SST THU FEB 24 2005

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 8.4 SOUTH 177.6 WEST OR

ABOUT 550 NM NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 1 PM SST THU AND WAS MOVING

EASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE GFS IS SLOWING IT DOWN IN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD AT 261200Z BUT

INSISTED ON SLOWING THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NADI IS QUITE

CONFIDENT THAT IT SHOULD BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND

THE HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE HAS ALREADY CALLED IT AN UNAIMED T.C

WITH 1-MIN WINDS OF 35 KT. THUS...ACCEPTED MOVEMENT BY GFS BUT WITH

INCREASING WINDS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OF SAMOA

WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT PARTLY

CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY

NIGHT WITH WIND INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY.

THE WIND WAVE III MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 4-6 FEET TO

CONTINUE.

LONG TERM

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE

SAMOA GROUP COULD WELL BE IN STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FT AS THE TC FURTHER

DEVELOPS..

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR PRODUCTS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT

HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/SAMOA

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SCA AND HIGH SURF ADVY FOR NORTH SHORES.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AT 2 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005 OR SOONER IF

CONDITIONS WARRANTED.

AKAPO

[HURAKAN]

A MONSTER IS GROWING, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC KNOWS VERY WELL WHAT I MEAN!

[AussieMark]

this thing is developing at a rapid rate

about 10 hrs ago or something it was a INVEST

now its a tropical cyclone

[SouthernWx]

Doggone it....thought for a minute I had a TC named after me, but only a very close call (Percy vs Perry).

Oh well, maybe someday


PW

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 25/0212 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [995 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 178.4W
AT 250000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY,
LATEST SSMI DATA AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100
MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO EAST TO
SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.


TC PERCY HAD AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOMENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS EAST. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LLCC. A WARM SPOT NOW
APPEARS IN THE LATEST EIR IMAGERY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING
FEATURE [WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL] YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE
SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] WEAK TROUGH. TC PERCY REMAINS
EMBEDDED AND STEERED BY DEEP MONSOONAL WESTERLY WINDS. OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK. A CONCENSUS FORECAST
BASED ON ECMWF, NOGAPS AND UK MAINTAINS THE EASTWARD TRACK BEFORE
CURVING IT SOUTHEAST BY 261200 UTC.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 9.4S 176.9W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 8.8S 174.3W MOV ENE AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 8.7S 171.6W MOV E AT 15 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 9.5S 170.2W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY will
be issued at 250800 UTC.



25/0225 UTC 8.7S 178.4W T2.5/2.5 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean

TC PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND APPARENT CALM UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE FUTURE IS FORECASTED TO BE BRIGHT FOR THE CYCLONE.

[HurricaneBill]

This year seems a heck of a lot more active than last year in the South Pacific.

Last year, there was a total of 3 storms.

2004:
Heta
Ivy
Judy (not recognized by the JTWC)

2005 (so far): 6 storms
Kerry
Lola (not recognized by the JTWC)
Meena
Nancy
Olaf
Percy

Is this above average activity for the South Pacific?

[HurricaneBill]

Is that an eye in the center or an island?

[Aslkahuna]

Tend to see more activity in the South Pacific-especially well east of Australia during Niño seasons due in part to the warm SSTA's that have shifted to the east. Same holds true for WPAC as Niños develop the storms tend to form east and SE of Guam and are long tracked frequently reaching Okinawa and Japan while the Philippine Sea and South China Sea sees less activity than usual. Also WPAC tends to have above average numbers of Supers (normal is 4.4/year).

Steve

[AussieMark]

This year seems a heck of a lot more active than last year in the South Pacific.

Last year, there was a total of 3 storms.

2004:
Heta
Ivy
Judy (not recognized by the JTWC)

2005 (so far): 6 storms
Kerry
Lola (not recognized by the JTWC)
Meena
Nancy
Olaf
Percy

Is this above average activity for the South Pacific?

if u include Cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria

2000
9 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 1 Hurricane. There were 4 of these
============================================

2001
9 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 3 Hurricane.
============================================

2002
9 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 5 Hurricane.
============================================

2003
10 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 5 Hurricane.
There were 5 of what u would call a Major Hurricane
============================================

2004
6 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 5 Hurricane.
============================================

2005
8 tropical cyclones
============================================
the strongest is what u would call a category 5 Hurricane.
there were 3 of what u would call a Major Hurricane
============================================