Tropical Cyclone PERCY (20P)

[AussieMark]

Tend to see more activity in the South Pacific-especially well east of Australia during Niño seasons due in part to the warm SSTA's that have shifted to the east. Same holds true for WPAC as Niños develop the storms tend to form east and SE of Guam and are long tracked frequently reaching Okinawa and Japan while the Philippine Sea and South China Sea sees less activity than usual. Also WPAC tends to have above average numbers of Supers (normal is 4.4/year).

Steve

thanks for that

Its interesting to note the East Coast of Australia has not been hit by what u guys would Call a Major Hurricane since 1989


Tropical Cyclone Aivu

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I felt jumpy for the hurricane season. This is unoffical just for fun!

Tropical cyclone Percy
Advisorie one
10pm pst/1am est
2-23-2005

Centered at 8.5 south/178.5 west
Winds 60 knots
Gust 70 knots
Movement east-southeastward
Pressure 991 millibars???


......

Tropical cyclone Percy, is currently becoming oreganized at a faster then normal/Avg rate. Over the last 12 hours, it has went from what appears to be a 30 knot tropical depression. Currently the cyclone has a very well oreganized centeral area of deep convection with very favable outflow. The poleward outflow is amazing at this hour with out quastion. Outflow/Inflow is nearly perfect for bombing. With outflow all the way around. Showing that shear is lower then 5 knots, around the cyclone.

I would not be at all surprized to see this system become a severe cyclone. Or a 65 knot cyclone over a very short time(Next 6 or so hours). What appears to be a eye wall forming on 85 h soundings(A) off Navy/Nrl out of the latest data shows that this system maybe close to a severe cyclone/Hurricane. With this data I'm thinking Percy is around 60 knot tropical cyclone.

(A) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/SHE ... atest.html

The latest t numbers where only around 2.5. But I would say by appearnce it is now at around 3.5 t. Wind are upgraded to 60 knots for this advisorie.

Current movement appears to be east-southeastward. The Joint Typhoon warning center, is forecasting this to head east-southeastward over the next 72 hours.

The Gfs, model shows a sharp southward movement around 172 west or 60 to 72 hours time frame. The models show a faster southward movement(Edit). Reason for the sharp turn is because of a strong area of weakness or trough is forecasted to form at this time by the Gfs. I'm forecasting a east-southeastward movement over the next 36 hours with a slow turn to the southeast at around 60 hours.

I'm forecasting this to become a very powerful tropical cyclone over the next 24 to 36 hours.


Winds forecast
0 60 knots
6 65 knots
12 75 knots
24 90 knots
36 100 knots
48 115 knots
60 80 knots
72 50 knots

Forecaster Matthew

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1am pst/3am est
1A forecast

Wind forecast
0 65 knots
6 75 knots
12 80 knots
24 90 knots
36 115 knots
48 125 knots
60 120 knots
72 120 knots

I'm now turning this system fairly close to the Joint Typhoon warnings center thinking. But Slightly west of that. Very close to the islands. I have ended the idea of the trough shearing the storm. It is going to be close.

[AussieMark]

this thing is looking to get quite strong

and its in the vicinity of where 3 or 4 other severe cyclones have been this year also

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 25/0839 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [985 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 177.7W
AT 250600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO
EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.


TC PERCY HAD CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS
EAST-SOUTHEAST. A WARM SPOT APPEARED ON EIR IMAGERY AT 0126 IMAGERY
BUT HAS FILLED SINCE. PERCY STILL REMAINS AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM AND BREAKS DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
BANDING FEATURE [WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL] YIELDS
T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS. TC PERCY REMAINS EMBEDDED AND STEERED BY DEEP
MONSOONAL WESTERLY WINDS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EASTWARD
TRACK AND UK SUGGESTS RAPID INTESIFICATION. A CONCENSUS FORECAST
BASED ON NOGAPS,UK,JMA AND GFS MAINTAINS THE EAST-EASTWARD TRACK
BEFORE CURVING IT SOUTHEAST BY 261200 UTC.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 9.1S 175.8W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 9.4S 174.0W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 9.8S 172.8W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 10.4S 171.6W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AT 251400 UTC.



Dvorak: 3.5

[x-y-no]

Wow ... that's some pretty impressive organization since yesterday ...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Your welcome senorpepr

BTW that forecast track looks vaguely familiar... :o

[P.K.]

Percy is now listed at 90kts (954hPa) by the NRL.

The 14:12 Fiji update had it at 60ktd (975hPa).

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 25/2010 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [960 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 175.0W
AT 251800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO
CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.


A RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH CMG EYE WITH CDG SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5, MET=4.0 AND
PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON PAT: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS
BROKEN. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
PERCY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SYSTEM FURTHER. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS LOW AND ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ALONG PROJECTED TRACK. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON INITIAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK, BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND DECELERATION WITH FURTHER INTESIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 9.8S 172.6W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 10.4S 171.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 11.0S 170.0W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 11.6S 169.5W MOV SSE AT 5 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 260200 UTC.



TC PERCY, MORE POWERFUL THAN EVER. THIS IS GOING TO BE A REAL MONSTER PRETTY SOON!

[HURAKAN]

TC PERCY BEGINS TO DEVELOP AN EYE IN THE CENTER OF ITS INTENSIFYING STRUCTURE.

[P.K.]

25/2025 UTC 9.1S 174.4W T5.0/5.0 PERCY -- South Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

Percy is a very impressive cyclone indeed. The fourth straight in this region. Nadi has the sustained winds at 100 mph (1-min) w/ a pressure of 960mb. W/in 48hrs, winds are fcstd to 145mph.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[senorpepr]

Hurricane Warning 088 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0057 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [950 hPa] centre was located near 9 decimal 3 South 173
decimal 9 West at 260000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 9.3S 173.9W at 260000 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast 12 knots. Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre, increasing to 90 knots
in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 9.9S 172.0W at 261200 UTC
and near 10.5S 170.7W at 270000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 087.

105 mph (1-min)

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 26/0210 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 173.9W
AT 260000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.


PERCY'S RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE, AFTER INTIALLY WARMING IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS, HAS BEGUN TO COOL. THE COLD OVERCAST HAS CONTRACTED
MARKEDLY. PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OF IMAGERY INDICATES DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AT WORK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH W EYE WITH CMG
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT:
T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF PERCY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TURNING PERCY
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTESIFICATION AND DECELERATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 9.9S 172.0W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 10.5S 170.6W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 11.3S 169.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 12.3S 168.6W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 260800 UTC.

[James]

This certianly is a more active year out there. The total currently rests on six storms. This time last year there had been three. Another active year - 2003 - had only seen four by this time.

[AussieMark]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 26/0811 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [955 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 172.9W AT 260600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
0614Z SSMI DATA, GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

PERCY'S EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBILE AND HAS FILLED SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS TO SHOW INITIAL SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. SSMI ALSO INDICATES SMALL AREA OF SUPRESSED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN WALL OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED EMBEDDED CENTRE IN LG YIELDS DT=4.5, MET=PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6HRS.
PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW
BUT INCREASES SOUTH OF 15S. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE TURNING PERCY SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTESIFICATION AND DECELERATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 10.4S 171.1W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 11.2S 169.5W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 12.5S 168.4W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 13.9S 167.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 261400 UTC.

[James]

Hmm, the storm does indeed look quite ragged now. Thanks for posting the advisories.

[P.K.]

The NRL have reduced their forecast by 10kts.

[senorpepr]

Hurricane Warning 092 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/1302 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [955 hPa] centre was located near 10 decimal 3 South 171
decimal 5 West at 261200 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 10.3S 171.5W at 261200 UTC.

Cyclone moving east-southeast 12 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,
Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 11.2S 169.5W at 270000 UTC
and near 12.0S 167.7W at 271200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 090.

105 mph (1-min avg)

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 26/1343 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [955 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 171.5W
AT 261200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN CDG YIELDING DT=5.0,
MET=PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. PERCY REMAINS IN A
STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW BUT INCREASES SOUTH OF 15S. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR TAHITI. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN PERCY SOUTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 11.2S 169.5W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 12.0S 167.7W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 13.2S 166.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 15.1S 165.5W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 262000 UTC.