February 28-March 1st rainstorm for the coastal areas?

[krysof]

Temperatures have been going up, yesterday it was at 36 now its at 42 for Monday, the high pressure will not be strong enough and the storm will be inland. Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Western New York will get hit with this one, it may not be a nor'easter after all.

[Fodie77]

I'm in the Shenandoah Valley in Western VA so hopefully I'm still looking good.

[Fodie77]

Plus, you shouldn't forget about us in the inland areas krysof! What do you think about my chances?

[krysof]

where do you live?

[Fodie77]

In Winchester, it's in the northwestern most tip of VA.

[Planetsnow]

How much do you see falling in Rochester, NY?

[krysof]

unless you live in the higher elevations, than rain or mix will be in your area, I do think the temperatures they are forecasting will be less than what they are forecasting. If the low is offshore, than cold high pressure will be able to funnel down cold air all the way to the northeast coasts. So there are 2 scenarios, an further inland track or and offshore track, inland means rain to mix, offshore could mean very heavy snows including the northeast coastal areas depending how cold it gets. From the 6z models to the 12z models, the low is a little further east and more cold air will come in. The forecasters like weather.com are using information from the 6z models and that is why they raised my monday temperatures to 42 but they are likely to drop by a few degrees if models show the low going further east.

[krysof]

for you planetsnow, as of now you could get anywhere from a foot to 2 feet if its a more inland track but if models start going further east, than snowfall closer to a foot will than 2 feet will be likely for your area.

[Jrodd312]

for you planetsnow, as of now you could get anywhere from a foot to 2 feet if its a more inland track but if models start going further east, than snowfall closer to a foot will than 2 feet will be likely for your area.

I really hope that models do start trending east. If they do MAJOPR SNOWS for philly can be expected. Keep in mind that this storm has 1996 characteristics.

[krysof]

with the 12z models, they stopped trending west, I'm not sure if they will start trending east, but they might and I think they will. Remember that models go crazy a few days before the storm actually hits and they are in that phase, I think the storm will be further east, but since it will become a giant storm, heavy snow would affect most of the northeast, including Ohio.

[Planetsnow]

Hey, I can easily live with a foot, even though two feet would be better, lol. Either an inland track or offshore track, I really hope to get a lot of snow here in Western NY.

[krysof]

for the coast, an inland track or an offshore track would be a dramatic difference, inland means heavy rain, but offshore, very heavy snows up to 2 feet in some spots would be possible especially if 3-4,5 inch an hour bands were to set up.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Even with the absence of arctic high pressure, the track and intensity of this storm is very critical. This storm would need to be offshore just enough to give the major cities the heaviest of snow bands, all wet snow and wind also. But a track along the coast as indicated now would promote more rain for the megalopolis and higher elevation snows. In these type of storm situations the forecast could change hour by hour days in advance. The bottom line is the storm is looking significant with strong wind and heavy precipitation. It's precipitation type that is the critical question and aspect to this storm. We also need to consider some of the snow cover from yesterday's storm in the megalopolis since that alone will keep temperatures from soaring.

Jim

[Steve H.]

Not going to Happen. This will be Big Snow for the I-95 corridor. 12Z runs of the Euro/Canadien, and albeit poor 12Z UKMET (way Offshore) show a katie-bar-the-door solution for the I-95 cities. Throw out the GFS, and watch the NAM trend east. HPC also concurs that there is a misread of the shortwave and grid feedback problems. I don't always agree with HPC on much of anything, but think they're on the right trail here. This storm will be near the hatteras area then head toward CC. Low going toward the maritimes on Sat/Sun will spin up (50/50) and the net effect will be that it will not allow the high to slide off the coast, but will re-build HP in so Quebec. Damn I wish I was on LI for these...still here in FL. At worst, this could be a SN/PL-R/Snow situation for NYC/Box. But Climatology is arguing strongly for this to run the coast & stay just offshore. Lots of wind with this bad boy. Enjoy it!!!

[Jrodd312]

Not going to Happen. This will be Big Snow for the I-95 corridor. 12Z runs of the Euro/Canadien, and albeit poor 12Z UKMET (way Offshore) show a katie-bar-the-door solution for the I-95 cities. Throw out the GFS, and watch the NAM trend east. HPC also concurs that there is a misread of the shortwave and grid feedback problems. I don't always agree with HPC on much of anything, but think they're on the right trail here. This storm will be near the hatteras area then head toward CC. Low going toward the maritimes on Sat/Sun will spin up (50/50) and the net effect will be that it will not allow the high to slide off the coast, but will re-build HP in so Quebec. Damn I wish I was on LI for these...still here in FL. At worst, this could be a SN/PL-R/Snow situation for NYC/Box. But Climatology is arguing strongly for this to run the coast & stay just offshore. Lots of wind with this bad boy. Enjoy it!!!

I totally agree with you. The models will trend east and I-95 will get the big snows.

[krysof]

the nam and gfs show a scenario that wouldn't make sense, with time they will agree with the euro and canadian models

[SnowGod]

Actually, they make a ton of sense. Whether it happens, is still up in the air. Every model should have this down by the Saturday 12z.

[krysof]

have what down?

[SnowGod]

This storm. The Nam is the farthest west, the UKMET is the farthest east. The GGEM and European try to ride just off the coast, the GFS up on the coastal plain.

At some point, all models agree that the BIG upper level low is going to pull it back on land.

They need to get a consensus where the low most likely will track. Can I rule out a miss east? Can I rule out a Ohio Valley bomb?

My view is that the European and GGEM need to go West, the NAM, east. So I consider the GFS view the best right now, but all options are open, but closing fast as the storm will be forming soon.

[yoda]

This storm. The Nam is the farthest west, the UKMET is the farthest east. The GGEM and European try to ride just off the coast, the GFS up on the coastal plain.

At some point, all models agree that the BIG upper level low is going to pull it back on land.

They need to get a consensus where the low most likely will track. Can I rule out a miss east? Can I rule out a Ohio Valley bomb?

My view is that the European and GGEM need to go West, the NAM, east. So I consider the GFS view the best right now, but all options are open, but closing fast as the storm will be forming soon.

Right now its 7 models vs 2... and the GFS and the NAM shold be discarded until the 0z run anyway per NCEP...

I would take the UKMET/EC/MM5 comp right now...